Does this forum thread have a rule that non-tesla investors/stock owners aren't/shouldn't post? This is an honest question as wouldn't having everyone holding the same long position end up having a certain level of confirmation bias? If there is such a rule, that's fine as well and I'd stop posting/replying, but as I mentioned before, these forums from many car makes (or other stocks/companies) end up looking like the same echo chamber if you read other investor threads for any company. I personally don't think that's a positive.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Does this forum thread have a rule that non-tesla investors/stock owners aren't/shouldn't post? This is an honest question as wouldn't having everyone holding the same long position end up having a certain level of confirmation bias? If there is such a rule, that's fine as well and I'd stop posting/replying, but as I mentioned before, these forums from many car makes (or other stocks/companies) end up looking like the same echo chamber if you read other investor threads for any company. I personally don't think that's a positive.
I agree with Sunwarriors. Additionally, investors like me are often interested in whether it's time to sell all or buy back in. Knowledgeable investors are valuable regardless of whether they (currently) own shares of TSLA. This forum would be more valuable if it had more discussion of facts and balanced opinions (and less self-righteousness and arrogance). BTW, I have been a longtime holder of TSLA, have been buying and selling some over time, and recently liquidated my entire position for the second time.
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I understand your point, other companies would try all sorts of tricks to keep the share price up, but I prefer that Tesla doesn't do that. As a long term investor I would actually just like to view the end of year figures and as long as they are improving then Im happy. Quarterly is noise to me.
Bad news is bad news and should be posted here, but some people post as if Tesla is doomed with a few bad quarters. The delivery numbers Q1 were disappointing but I would wait till the end of the year to see if it's situational or part of a larger issue.
cliff harris
Member
The only problem with the 'I'm waiting to buy back in' strategy with regards to Tesla, is the company is the leader in disruption and rapid adaptation in the markets i which it operates, and even that list of markets changes very fast. I bought shares in a car company, that turned into a car and energy company, that is now a car and energy and robots and ai company.
I like the fact that I cannot be caught out by a sudden (in my mind inevitable) chatgpt moment for the stock. When tech stocks rally, they REALLY rally. We might be on the cusp of true FSD, and how long will pass between true FSD and actual AGI?
I don't think its likely that FSD v12.6 drops within a week and gives us global, zero-intervention drives in all locations, weathers, languages and situations, but I don't think its 0% either.
None of us really know for sure how many orders there are for cybertruck, or what the marginal cost to produce one is. None of us know how good the internal FSD builds are, or what teslabot can do right now. None of us know how close dojo is to matching what nvidia have available.
FSD releases are happening every 10 days now. That might actually get FASTER. When FSD releases are twice a week, how safe do investors feel *not* owning the stock?
I like the fact that I cannot be caught out by a sudden (in my mind inevitable) chatgpt moment for the stock. When tech stocks rally, they REALLY rally. We might be on the cusp of true FSD, and how long will pass between true FSD and actual AGI?
I don't think its likely that FSD v12.6 drops within a week and gives us global, zero-intervention drives in all locations, weathers, languages and situations, but I don't think its 0% either.
None of us really know for sure how many orders there are for cybertruck, or what the marginal cost to produce one is. None of us know how good the internal FSD builds are, or what teslabot can do right now. None of us know how close dojo is to matching what nvidia have available.
FSD releases are happening every 10 days now. That might actually get FASTER. When FSD releases are twice a week, how safe do investors feel *not* owning the stock?
Check VAG shareholder concentration to begin to understand.
Anyone should post, however one shouldn't post with the sole intent of discouraging established investors from being investors. That's like me going to a wedding and yell "she used to be a hoe" right before he says "I do". Yeah maybe she used to be one and soon to be husband already knows, but the intent in this case is not to inform but to disrupt. We can't really say not discussing of her "hoe" status during a wedding ceremony is considered being in an echo chamber.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
If what you post is based solely in your own fears, uncertainties, and doubts, how it is helpful to repeatedly share them with a group of investors?
Especially, when you are admittedly not a TSLA investor, and, seem to have only an interest in arguing about why not to be one. Move along, this is not the stock you are looking for.
When others have taken time to repeatedly point out how one's short-term perspective is the primary reason for the fear, uncertainty, and doubt that several, like you, seem to want to go on and on about, it can become monotonous.
If you, and others like you, are unwilling to balance this short-term perspective against the longer-term perspectives offered in replies, then you paint yourself as either:
- having an agenda to generate a negative vibe, or
- you simply are unable to grasp the concept of...
When in doubt, zoom out
After enough of someone repeatedly ignoring offered facts which might help realize a broader understanding, it shouldn't be surprising when they experience push-back as you and a few others have.
Any consistently negative person will receive this in any group of people having a discussion about anything. More so when many in the group as a whole have a keen enough interest to have spent years studying the company, the stock, etc.
Hopefully, this may help explain why it isn't at all unexpected how you may feel as though such participation is not met with open arms.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Then, after all this time on the forum how have you missed the presentation of facts, rebuttal to a never ending barrage of FUD, and well presented commentary on the company, the stock, and the future of both?
Granted, there sometimes can be content that isn't as useful as it could be, but the signal is there for anyone who will take time to find it. Despite a dynamically varying signal to noise ratio there is lots of fantastic content presented here.
A rule? Perhaps...perhaps not. That is perhaps best answered by the creator of this thread, so I will defer that to him.
However, one could posit that any honorable gentleman / gentlewoman would rarely come here to post unless they were a Tesla investor / stockholder, or were seriously considering becoming one and wished to inquire here prior to investing. This should not be an echo chamber, but it does not require those who have no serious interest in investing in Tesla commenting here to avoid such a fate. Reasoned fellow investors here who share their concerns more than suffice for that purpose, and their voices should always find a welcome home here (even though, perhaps, they are not always welcomed as kindly and considerately as they should be).
Sometimes reasoned fellow investors have shared concerns here which, to them, were such serious concerns that they would exit most or all of their Tesla positions. For the most part, they have shared their concerns here, and upon no longer being a Tesla investor, moved on from being an active participant here as a manner of being a reasonable human being (albeit with a couple of notable exceptions who have stated that they remain here for less-than-honorable reasons such as to gloat). On the other hand, at least one very well known participant here continues to provide what knowledge they have with good intent, despite their individual criteria being met for them to exit most or all of their Tesla investments. Some such as myself happily self-exile from posting here when Tesla is off my investment roadmap, and return to posting here when it is. It doesn't require a 'rule' to simply behave respectfully to fellow human beings.
The difference is, often, in the motivation. It is not the fellow investors who are sharing concerns which generate a problem here, for the most part; it is those who have no interest in being part of the investor group but who wish to convince the investor group that they are wrong and they should not be investors.
This is, perhaps, an elegant analogy. While no analogy is perfect, it is reasonable to say that a wedding is put on by those interested in the marriage occurring, and hence the invitees would be those who were also wanting it to occur (at least at the point in time of being invited). Similarly, this site and forum are hosted by those interested in Tesla investing, and hence those who have such an interest should consider themselves invited. An invited guest may change their mind and speak up during the wedding ceremony with far more honor than an uninvited guest who was never supportive of the marriage but arrives uninvited and unsupportive merely to try to break up the wedding. Consider the parallel to be an unwritten rule in many areas of human interaction.
Honestly, one of the challenges here on this forum is you have a mix of folks who were in during the "is Tesla gonna even make it (with single digit stock prices" days and the "I went all in at $380" days. For the record, I'm in the latter camp...ouch. One could easily argue those in the former camp had a MUCH greater chance of watching their investment go to zero, BUT for the same total dollar amount of investment their possible ROI is waaaaaay higher. Indeed, they are already up so far, the current moves seem almost irrelevant. Those of us in the latter camp dream of simply getting back to "even" and the "hyped" future numbers might get to 5 or 10x of the current price. The 100x days are over so our ROI is simply a lot more modest. Indeed, there are likely any number of stronger bets going back 3 years until now. Of course, hindsight is 20/20 and if we had all known what those were, we might have picked those plays.
I'm not sure if, back in the early days Tesla ever had a multi-year 70% drop (at peak), but that's what us later investors have endured (into negative returns). Our risk of "it goes to zero" is almost zero too now, but it doesn't mean the current drop isn't discouraging and painful.
Is there a TSLA halving event I can look forward to (that isn't the stock price)!
I'm not sure if, back in the early days Tesla ever had a multi-year 70% drop (at peak), but that's what us later investors have endured (into negative returns). Our risk of "it goes to zero" is almost zero too now, but it doesn't mean the current drop isn't discouraging and painful.
Is there a TSLA halving event I can look forward to (that isn't the stock price)!
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Hindsight is always 20/20. I wish I'd sold at $415 so I could buy back in today, but none of us can predict the future, and no one here was predicting Tesla would cut their own margins to razor thin values. We didn't know then.
I'm a simple investor, I buy stocks in strong growing companies and hold them long term. Like 10+ years long term. I'm not smart enough to time the market, because every time I've tried in my life I've either failed at it or I missed out on huge future gains (AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, etc).
Currently I feel TSLA will have a couple of years trading sideways or mostly flat at best. Possibly even going much lower. I still HOLD because I'm very confident in Tesla's long term financials and profitability. Both FSD and Optimus are worth multiples of the company's valuation today, and both are progressing rapidly now. I could sell now and try to buy back at a lower price but Tesla is too volatile to do that with confidence, any one of multiple surprises could land at any time and we'd have another late 2019 on our hands. Especially at this very low current valuation.
Good luck to everyone who tries to time TSLA, and congrats to those who succeed at it. It's not for me though.
Yes, there is a halving event you can look forward to, but only you have control of hitting that 'sell' button in your account to 1/2 your holdingsHonestly, one of the challenges here on this forum is you have a mix of folks who were in during the "is Tesla gonna even make it (with single digit stock prices" days and the "I went all in at $380" days. For the record, I'm in the latter camp...ouch. One could easily argue those in the former camp had a MUCH greater chance of watching their investment go to zero, BUT for the same total dollar amount of investment their possible ROI is waaaaaay higher. Indeed, they are already up so far, the current moves seem almost irrelevant. Those of us in the latter camp dream of simply getting back to "even" and the "hyped" future numbers might get to 5 or 10x of the current price. The 100x days are over so our ROI is simply a lot more modest. Indeed, there are likely any number of stronger bets going back 3 years until now. Of course, hindsight is 20/20 and if we had all known what those were, we might have picked those plays.
I'm not sure if, back in the early days Tesla ever had a multi-year 70% drop (at peak), but that's what us later investors have endured (into negative returns). Our risk of "it goes to zero" is almost zero too now, but it doesn't mean the current drop isn't discouraging and painful.
Is there a TSLA halving event I can look forward to (that isn't the stock price)!
Oddly enough, the SP might go higher even if deliveries drop Y/Y. I think the market is already expecting that. You might recall when the 1Q delivery numbers were announced, they were well below the lowest estimates (Troy's) - and the stock only went down 5%! That was surprising. There is a lot of delivery pessimism now baked into the stock IMO. Tesla will now trade on based on Elon's ability to convince the market about FSD and Robo. Or anything else pointing to growth ( like re-committing to the next gen car). If he can do that, even if deliveries come in 10% below last year (say 1.6 MM 2024 vs 1.8MM 2023) , the stock will go up.
Elon is the master at this game, it will be interesting to see what he comes up with.
Yes, in my case the battery and powertrain warranty is 8 years, 160,000 kms.
People might quibble with the mileage aspect, but the number of years is great.
From memory Tesla has been historically very generous with warranty reserves, and I think some allowance for battery pack failures is part of that.
The path forward is to introduce batteries that a closer to the Jeff Dahn 1 Million Mile Battery, and as that is done, adjust the warranty reserves for vehicles with those batteries or LFP batteries. Don't adjust the actual warranty until all models have the right kind of battery.
If there is a limited supply of 1 Million mile batteries, then put them in Robotaxis.
As part of the advertising campaign potential customers could be made more aware of the current warranty and perhaps the mileage aspect can be slowly increased.
Taking my vehicle as an example, it would be great if Tesla could advertise the following:- "Our battery and drivetrain warranty has now been increased to 8 years, 200,000 kms".
The warranty reserve risk in ticking the mileage aspect up a bit might be minimal, especially if they stop increasing the amount of, silicon in the anode. But that has to be weighed against higher energy density, allowing a lower vehicle cost.
That's my point. It's down what, 35% this year? That's the 'expectations balloon' deflating. When a stock barely budges on bad news, expectations are bottoming. That's actually a good thing.
Krugerrand
Meow
Then you are a trader or perhaps short term holder. There are other threads on this forum that cater to that. Long term investors don’t sell and then buy back then sell then buy back. Long term investors understand the possible downfall of trying to time the market.
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