Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

The last I heard they can collect data from vehicles equipped with the hardware and software even if they're not subscribers to FSD. Is that not true? Since hearing that I wonder how they evaluate the relevant cases for data use I have no idea. I don't remember where I understood that so I question my logic anyway on that point. I do recall they do use all drivers data in assessing accident risk for underwriting insurance where that is legal to do. e.g. NOT California.

Yes, that is how I understand it as well.

But, only FSD users are able to provide disengagement data. That feedback loop is what is necessary for zeroing in on the unique edge cases. Which, once identified, can help isolate more of those examples in the non-FSD data that can be applied to training.

 

[Snerruc]

Going along with what @unk45 said, right now Tesla appears to be an example of the danger of deflation. The steady decrease in selling price may be reducing sales as buyers wait for further reductions in selling price. Adding value to the cars might work better. As Dr Phil says: “how’s that working for you “. Not the same industry, but I had a friend in real estate who would take on slow selling houses and RAISE the prices. If you’re too good a deal, people start wondering what the problem is. He sold every one of them.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Strange thread lately, some are misdiagnosing FSD pricing strategy IMO. FSD is a drug.

I know addiction more than most. MOST of you have not yet experienced FSD withdrawals unless you had to rent a non-FSD vehicle like I did (or drive a Cybertruck w/o FSD like Jordan did), or just getting it now for the first time.

If you're the drug dealer, it is very common to front the drug to get them hooked, or they give a cut on sales their sales. Especially if the drug is a bit scary in the first place (like FSD). If it's addictive, you may have a customer for life, even willing to steal for it. FSD ain't all that, but it has elements and it is both dangerous and scary to have it removed. From experience.

So the Free 30 Days was needed (as I correctly recommended a while ago). And they also needed an easy re-entry price or many would prefer to "withdraw" from the program than to continue. Tesla will learn this effect on day 31 & 32 ONLY; the experiment is still in progress. Ask anyone how they feel if it is removed for just a single drive because they broke a rule.

The question is whether the addiction (or comfort and ease of mind) is sufficient to allow for price adjustment as it improves. So they should take their time, no rush.

I don't see FSD subscription pricing as having some revenue goal, or that the price was positioned according to it's value ever. They can increase the price here over time, there is little price erosion IMO.

 

[2daMoon]

Especially if the drug is a bit scary in the first place (like FSD).

Kirk would have called it FDS...

 

[sunwarriors]

I thought the hold up was the Vegas city council. Until they allow driverless in the tunnels it won't happen. I'm sure the Boring company is working on this, but city councils are notorious for not embracing new technology.

I don't think this is discussed enough. A lot of major metros are blue leaning/progressive and my lack of growth vision is I don't see a guaranteed regulatory roadmap where major cities which benefits a RT fleet will green light this very quickly. With Musk leaning far right, I would assume politics will play a factor here to greenlight this as well. I think Musk's plan is just to turn it on and see what happens (I think that's how s/w deployment/iterative gains works). The problem is once an accident happens (unless folks here assume it will NEVER have a problem), it will slow things down and unlike tech/exploding rockets where no human is hurt, once someone is hurt, a lawsuit starts and things maybe put on hold (Cruise example).

I also have doubts that folks would pay a ton for this. For folks who purchased a $68k MY or $100k+ MS/MX, another $99 or $299 month is not a big % cost of the car. But the rich folks market is tapped out I feel for EVs and very competitive now (folks who can afford one already has one). At that price range, you now have (which wasn't there even 5 years ago), Lucid, Porsche, Mercedes, BMW, Audi, etc. I don't see how a less wealthy an aspiring Tesla owner can smartly/financially buy a $30k Tesla, and now, assuming unsupervised FSD is the missing nugget in Tesla's growth, fork over another $299/month ($3588/year or $17940/5yrs) over the ownership of the car. Of course, poor people are not smart with their $$. I wonder how folks now feel who paid $15k or $12k for FSD when it's cheaper now.

Price can't be a non-factor in this. I don't buy the $100k value of FSD because it's cheaper to simply have a personal driver at that price point or go full rideshare. Like the slamming of Waymo, cost matters. Rideshare prices/Uber/Lyft puts a cap on whatever a RT can charge and I've never seen those jobs as a great career or high paying (I assume no wealthy/well paid employee does that job if you look at the worker demographics)).

Cost it too high and there will be little/no update ($199/month dropped to $99/month because clearly, not enough folks were buying it at the $199/month price or, the $12k or $15k price).

I don't know much and hear nothing about the Boring Company, but have they done anything at all in the last 3 years (maybe we need to wait 20 years, at least it's not a public company).

As you mention, city councils are notorious for not embracing new tech.

 

[sunwarriors]

Elon has said that FSD’s price increases as it gets better.

But isn't FSD better now and they have cut the price? $15k -> $12k -> $8k? $199/month to $99/month?

 

[capster]

We can only hope!

There’s an expression that I may not fully understand or agree with: “The Perception is the Reality”.

My “social media” is comprised mostly of Threads and Facebook, having abandoned Twitter some time ago. On both of these, the majority perception of Tesla, the CyberTruck and Musk is one of derision, mockery and overall negativity. This is in spite of algorithms that I think are pushing posts to me based on my interests. Whatever the “plan” is, it’s certainly not resonating with the American public at large. And I think that perception, legitimate or not, may be a large part in why the stock is floundering.

I disagree with your conclusion because you are confusing the online world with the real one.

Real people in the real world are enthusiastic about Tesla and its cars, especially the Cybertruck, despite the haters online.

I’ve encountered probably over a hundred people in my Cybertruck and talked with most. They are almost all positive about Tesla cars. They are curious about and interested in the CT. Yes, the exterior design has some doubters but most of those like it better in person. I get smiles and thumbs ups most times I drive and most everywhere I go—even in the urban core one of the US’s deepest blue cities.

Only a tiny minority number of people are vocal critics or visible disapprovers in reality. I’ve gotten one thumbs down, one head shaking, and one gag-me-with-a-spoon gesture. I let them see a good natured laugh in reply, though the CT is rebuttal enough.

My island is a tourist destination so we get a wide sampling of people. I even gave a demo ride to a few people from France who probably couldn’t afford a CT even if it were available in Europe, but are now possibly interested in the 3 (and, no, I don’t bother with giving my referral code).

Kids especially love the CT.

Comments about Tesla the company are not common. Comments about Elon are rare and more often sympathetic than critical.

tl:dr The online world doesn’t reflect reality. Elon is disrupting multiple trillion dollar industries. A lot up smoke is getting blown up people’s backsides online about him, but there are plenty of people who don’t seem to know or care about that.

 

[insaneoctane]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781889613155496131

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781893130843009131

Yes, but it's still almost 55 shares. Is FSD worth 55 shares of TSLA? What does that exchange look like like in 12 months? 24 months?

 

[Coolio2000]

I don't think this is discussed enough. A lot of major metros are blue leaning/progressive and my lack of growth vision is I don't see a guaranteed regulatory roadmap where major cities which benefits a RT fleet will green light this very quickly. With Musk leaning far right, I would assume politics will play a factor here to greenlight this as well. I think Musk's plan is just to turn it on and see what happens (I think that's how s/w deployment/iterative gains works). The problem is once an accident happens (unless folks here assume it will NEVER have a problem), it will slow things down and unlike tech/exploding rockets where no human is hurt, once someone is hurt, a lawsuit starts and things maybe put on hold (Cruise example).

I also have doubts that folks would pay a ton for this. For folks who purchased a $68k MY or $100k+ MS/MX, another $99 or $299 month is not a big % cost of the car. But the rich folks market is tapped out I feel for EVs and very competitive now (folks who can afford one already has one). At that price range, you now have (which wasn't there even 5 years ago), Lucid, Porsche, Mercedes, BMW, Audi, etc. I don't see how a less wealthy an aspiring Tesla owner can smartly/financially buy a $30k Tesla, and now, assuming unsupervised FSD is the missing nugget in Tesla's growth, fork over another $299/month ($3588/year or $17940/5yrs) over the ownership of the car. Of course, poor people are not smart with their $$. I wonder how folks now feel who paid $15k or $12k for FSD when it's cheaper now.

Price can't be a non-factor in this. I don't buy the $100k value of FSD because it's cheaper to simply have a personal driver at that price point or go full rideshare. Like the slamming of Waymo, cost matters. Rideshare prices/Uber/Lyft puts a cap on whatever a RT can charge and I've never seen those jobs as a great career or high paying (I assume no wealthy/well paid employee does that job if you look at the worker demographics)).

Cost it too high and there will be little/no update ($199/month dropped to $99/month because clearly, not enough folks were buying it at the $199/month price or, the $12k or $15k price).

I don't know much and hear nothing about the Boring Company, but have they done anything at all in the last 3 years (maybe we need to wait 20 years, at least it's not a public company).

As you mention, city councils are notorious for not embracing new tech.

Musk not embracing the far left makes him far right? Funny how no one is allowed to be in the middle anymore.

I agree with the fact most progressive city councils might resist green lighting projects with an Elon led company.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I had a hard time to totally understand the math, but since I see $0.7 “margin”, I suppose $51b is gross profit a year.
I am curious and think the number is too big, because current UBER’s market cap is $144B only. So you mean RoboTaxi business can earn a whole UBER market cap in 3 years? That doesn’t sound right.

You shouldn't use analogy here. Build it up from first principles.

• revenue per mile is established in the marketplace, so little need to discuss
• Costs:
  • RT cost divided by lifetime miles
  • energy per mile * your assumption on energy price
  • Maintenance for EV's is low but do the same calc per mile
  • a level of overhead to run the network

As a short answer as to why you can't compare to Uber is because a large chunk of revenues go to pay for the meat pilot. Uber would be worth much more if it captured another ~30 - 50 percentage points of its revenues.

You can dial up/down the # vehicles and energy costs as you see fit. CapEx and operating overhead become mostly irrelevant as battery life and miles driven scale and it becomes (mostly) a revenue vs energy cost model.

This is all predicated on L5 automony actually working - but the economics post L5 are clearly phenomenal until market saturation starts shrinking the revenue line.

 

[2daMoon]

It would be great if you were to show some initiative, even a little bit, toward taking into consideration all the information that is ALREADY posted in this forum. You can use the Search function and key words to locate what many/most here already have taken into consideration.

Just a little due diligence would go a long way.

I don't think this is discussed enough.

hahahahahahahhaha

A lot of major metros are blue leaning/progressive and my lack of growth vision is I don't see a guaranteed regulatory roadmap where major cities which benefits a RT fleet will green light this very quickly.

...because major cities aren't interested in reducing collisions, injuries, and saving lives, making better use of parking lots, increased tax revenue from commercial operations, etc.?

With Musk leaning far right, I would assume politics will play a factor here to greenlight this as well. I think Musk's plan is just to turn it on and see what happens (I think that's how s/w deployment/iterative gains works). The problem is once an accident happens (unless folks here assume it will NEVER have a problem), it will slow things down and unlike tech/exploding rockets where no human is hurt, once someone is hurt, a lawsuit starts and things maybe put on hold (Cruise example).

If that were true all motorized vehicles would have been outlawed decades ago.

Price can't be a non-factor in this. I don't buy the $100k value of FSD because it's cheaper to simply have a personal driver at that price point or go full rideshare. Like the slamming of Waymo, cost matters. Rideshare prices/Uber/Lyft puts a cap on whatever a RT can charge and I've never seen those jobs as a great career or high paying (I assume no wealthy/well paid employee does that job if you look at the worker demographics)).

Cost it too high and there will be little/no update ($199/month dropped to $99/month because clearly, not enough folks were buying it at the $199/month price or, the $12k or $15k price).

Price will always adjust to where the market dictates.

When autonomy is solved the mere profit potential of owning a commercial Robotaxi will justify what might seem a scathingly high price compared to today's private use of Supervised FSD. Mostly because, even when charging half of what Uber currently does a Robotaxi will pay for itself, including the FSD Network/App/Billing portion, in a year or two.

Have you watched any of the Tony Seba videos where the numbers and easy to understand charts and explanations are provided?
Here's Part 1 of a series that should help you fill in the blanks.

 

[AndrewZ]

Yes, that is how I understand it as well.

But, only FSD users are able to provide disengagement data. That feedback loop is what is necessary for zeroing in on the unique edge cases. Which, once identified, can help isolate more of those in the non-FSD data that can be applied to training.

Disengagement data could come from running FSD in shadow mode and where the human driver does something different from what FSD was predicting = disengagement.

Requiring paid user data has never made sense to me and I’ve yet to see evidence it results in anything, spent enough time listening to Beta testers from around the country lamenting about things remaining unfixed despite disengaging and hitting the camera button until the cows came home. Like Chuck’s ULT, where progress only came after social media exposure had Tesla putting boots on the ground to address it.

The power here is in running the stuff in shadow mode and collecting data that way.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Wall Street wants answers from Musk on Tesla's affordable car - Autoblog

Elon Musk has kept investors hanging since a Reuters report that Tesla had scrapped plans for a $25,000 “Model 2” electric vehicle. Analysts called the situation "gut-wrenching," a "horror show," and a "self-inflicted" "debacle."

www.autoblog.com

 

[insaneoctane]

Waymo is currently the yardstick for autonomy. Can their approach scale ? No. Commercially it’s probably a dead end. But the fact still remains that Tesla would have to reduce disengagements by an order of magnitude to match waymo.

Tesla gets to learn about passenger pick up and drop off from Waymo. For free. It's nice to have someone to learn from (including what not to do). The driving part, Tesla will figure out themselves, but passenger pick up and drop off is not something Tesla does yet. So much of what Tesla does has been without helpful competition to learn much from, I see value in learning some details from Waymo. Unlike Mary

 

[2daMoon]

Wall Street wants answers from Musk on Tesla's affordable car - Autoblog

Elon Musk has kept investors hanging since a Reuters report that Tesla had scrapped plans for a $25,000 “Model 2” electric vehicle. Analysts called the situation "gut-wrenching," a "horror show," and a "self-inflicted" "debacle."

www.autoblog.com

Oh, that pesky Wall Street, always wanting answers to questions they should be able to figure out on their own.

Instead, they want to peek at answers over the shoulder of someone that has done the work and knows. But often end up copying wrong answers from over the shoulder of Reuters or Bloomberg.

 

[Usain]

On the same thread you are claiming Tesla will be saved by RT revenues? Then you say Waymo will lose $12billion. Then you clearly demonstrate that you don't know how Uber makes (barely) money- it's the top markets, the rest of still hemorrhaging. So which is it? Is RT a great business or not?

RT is a great business as long as you can make a profit.

Waymo has not shown a path to profitability because their technology is inferior. Not only are Waymo's specially-equipped vehicles expensive, their operation is still highly dependent on lots of human labor monitoring behind the scenes and with drivers deployed in the field for when the cars get stuck.

So the more cities Waymo rolls out to, the more money they lose. Waymo has to figure out how to operate at a profit.

Tesla's approach to autonomy is far advanced of Waymo's and will be much cheaper and more profitable. The difference is that Tesla's system has taken much longer to develop.

Tesla is creating purpose-built robotaxis at a fraction of Waymo's cost. Since there is no reliance on HD maps, Tesla can quickly roll out to larger service areas. And re-mapping will never be a problem when roads change or go under construction. I also expect that Tesla's robotaxis will need far less human labor behind the scenes. The reason is that Tesla's vehicles are learning how to drive like a human. FSD is being trained to avoid difficult situations and do advanced maneuvers that Waymo can't handle with its more heuristic approach.

So the way I see this playing out is that FSD is on a trajectory to improve very, very rapidly. While Waymo continues to hemorage money after all these years, Tesla's network will be profitable relatively soon after launching. Waymo's system simply won't be able to compete on cost. So in any market Tesla wants to enter, its robotaxis will undercut the prices of Waymo, Uber, and Lyft.

Tesla wins and you won't be able to see second place with a telescope.

 

[NicoV]

We can only hope!

There’s an expression that I may not fully understand or agree with: “The Perception is the Reality”.

My “social media” is comprised mostly of Threads and Facebook, having abandoned Twitter some time ago. On both of these, the majority perception of Tesla, the CyberTruck and Musk is one of derision, mockery and overall negativity. This is in spite of algorithms that I think are pushing posts to me based on my interests. Whatever the “plan” is, it’s certainly not resonating with the American public at large. And I think that perception, legitimate or not, may be a large part in why the stock is floundering.

I have drastically cut down my Facebook usage mainly because it kept presenting me views exactly the opposite of mine, the FB algorithm even preferring to present me posts making fun of my views. Mainly the “electrisch rijden doen we op de kermis” views (the dutch equivalent of coal rolling).
It seems that the pro-ICE crowd is very active on FB, and the pro-EV crowd gave up correcting the FUD and lies.

Then I look what happens in the real world around me, and I see EVs everywhere and people are mostly happy with them. That’s what will drive EV sales.
Some anecdotal evidence: I recently met a neighbour walking of couple of streets away from home. It turns out he had plugged in his hybrid car in the nearest public available charger (actually one of the chargers of a company, one of the recent tax laws provided subsidies for companies installing chargers on the condition that they also needed to be available to the public outside office hours). I asked him why he bothered with that:
- he has just enough electric range to do his work commute, and likes driving his car better when driving electric
- his car policy requires him to have a certain percentage electric driving (but it is not enforced)
- he actually likes having a walk outside
Experience with electric driving will create EV customers. The same can be said about FSD.

 

[insaneoctane]

Disengagement data could come from running FSD in shadow mode and where the human driver does something different from what FSD was predicting = disengagement.

Requiring paid user data has never made sense to me and I’ve yet to see evidence it results in anything, spent enough time listening to Beta testers from around the country lamenting about things remaining unfixed despite disengaging and hitting the camera button until the cows came home. Like Chuck’s ULT, where progress only came after social media exposure had Tesla putting boots on the ground to address it.

The power here is in running the stuff in shadow mode and collecting data that way.

I think true disengagement data is only known on real FSD vs shadow mode. One is purposeful disengagement, while shadow might just be a difference in personal preference. FSD often does things differently than I do (sometimes better) and I often let it and choose to not disengage. You miss out on real disengagement data in shadow mode and have to guess about significance. If that subtle difference in data collection is valuable to Tesla for training, it might explain the recent reduction.

 

[jerry33]

I have drastically cut down my Facebook usage mainly because it kept presenting me views exactly the opposite of mine, the FB algorithm even preferring to present me posts making fun of my views. Mainly the “electrisch rijden doen we op de kermis” views (the dutch equivalent of coal rolling).
It seems that the pro-ICE crowd is very active on FB, and the pro-EV crowd gave up correcting the FUD and lies.

Then I look what happens in the real world around me, and I see EVs everywhere and people are mostly happy with them. That’s what will drive EV sales.
Some anecdotal evidence: I recently met a neighbour walking of couple of streets away from home. It turns out he had plugged in his hybrid car in the nearest public available charger (actually one of the chargers of a company, one of the recent tax laws provided subsidies for companies installing chargers on the condition that they also needed to be available to the public outside office hours). I asked him why he bothered with that:
- he has just enough electric range to do his work commute, and likes driving his car better when driving electric
- his car policy requires him to have a certain percentage electric driving (but it is not enforced)
- he actually likes having a walk outside
Experience with electric driving will create EV customers. The same can be said about FSD.

The only Facebooking I do is in some private groups, some of which I admin. That keeps the garbage down to a minimum. If it wasn't for those groups, I'd not be on FB at all.

 

[Iron]

But isn't FSD better now and they have cut the price? $15k -> $12k -> $8k? $199/month to $99/month?

IMHO, the reason for the steep price cuts and the free month are dual purposed. Yes, they will gain an influx of subscribers but the main reason, is to flood the Dojo supercomputer with data. I expect that supervised FSD will be on another level soon (I won't say full FSD, that remains to be seen) and the price might go right back up.