Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Usain]

An update on Waymo disengagements in California

Each year California requires companies with AV testing permits in the state to report on their disengagements. These reports assist the state in its understanding of how well a self-driving car is doing its job.

waymo.com

https://www.eetimes.com/waymo-cruise-dominate-av-testing/

Looks like Waymo is 1 every 17k miles now.

So here is what it said about Cruise:

The AV test results clearly show that most companies are improving their miles per disengagement. Cruise was the clear leader in 2022, with nearly 96,000 miles between disengagements—Cruise had only nine disengagements and drove over 863,000 miles. Cruise is also the leader in driverless AV miles, with over 546,000 miles in 2022.

But we know that almost every drive was being guided remotely by a human at some point. So what counts as a disengagement?

And every video I have watched recently of a Waymo drive has some part where the car is stopped and a message comes up and says, "We are working to get you moving again." Clearly, a human is intervening at that point. Apparently, that doesn't count as disengagement?

 

[Usain]

...and this compares to what?

EDIT:
I did download the 2023 CSV file and the description for the "disengagements" in the column labeled "AV System, Test Driver, Remote Operator, or Passenger" were all noted as "In-field retrieval"

Ah. So "in-field retrieval". Thanks for the info.

 

[GatorMeat]

THIS is what I’ve been waiting for! While $8k still seems a bit high for FSD (Supervised), $2k to upgrade from Enhanced Autopilot is definitely worth it.

Take rates will go up. How much? Only Tesla knows that, but most of this $ goes directly to the bottom line (Tesla still defers revenue until FSD is feature complete).

FSD is Tesla’s “Golden Goose”, and the supervised version, as impressive as it is, should be used to drive profits. I wouldn’t care if they priced it at $4k or even $3k, whatever’s needed to substantially increase take rates…and profits. Tesla can increase the price again when FSD (Unsupervised) is released.

Also, Tesla should break away from their current model of providing the “Unsupervised” version to anyone buying the “Supervised” version. FSD 12.x, once feature complete, is good enough to be a stand alone product. Then Tesla can offer the “Unsupervised” version as an upgrade to those buyers.

Anyway, I think Tesla is moving in the right direction. While I’d still like to see them market the Model Y to CRV and RAV4 buyers, I’m not going to argue with their product focus and cost reduction. The product essentially sells itself and FSD is getting too good to ignore. It’s just a matter of time.

My Realtor showed up with a new CRV. I couldn't help but to tease him for buying an antique gas car. He went on about range, and the CRV being the best buy out there!

 

[Usain]

The last I heard they can collect data from vehicles equipped with the hardware and software even if they're not subscribers to FSD. Is that not true? Since hearing that I wonder how they evaluate the relevant cases for data use I have no idea. I don't remember where I understood that so I question my logic anyway on that point. I do recall they do use all drivers data in assessing accident risk for underwriting insurance where that is legal to do. e.g. NOT California.

Tesla gets different data from subscribers and non-subcribers.

From subscribers, Tesla gets disengagement data. From this, Tesla learns about errors in the current system.

From non-subscribers, Tesla gets human behavior data. From this, FSD learns to drive like a human.

Both are important. So it could be that Tesla has lowered FSD prices in order to change the mix.

 

[Usain]

My personal theory is that Tesla lowered the FSD (supervised) subscription price to $99 is because they want to show OEMs lots of customers who love it, use it, and pay for it. The OEMs will have to do a licensing deal with Tesla or risk obsolescence.

The reason the price of fully-paid FSD was lowered to $8,000 was just because the subscription price was lowered and nobody was willing to get the fully-paid version when they could get the subscription version so cheap.

The other option was to just get rid of fully-paid FSD. But for whatever reason, Tesla decided to keep selling to those who are willing to pay up front.

 

[cliff harris]

Price can't be a non-factor in this. I don't buy the $100k value of FSD because it's cheaper to simply have a personal driver at that price point or go full rideshare.

FWIW Not everyone would agree. People who are introverts or autistic (or both!) place a premium on not having to interact with people unless you need to. My car driving itself is worth way more to me than having an always-available chauffeur. My model Y isn't going to judge me for being drunk too often or gossip about me, or swipe my wallet while I'm asleep . For the same reason I'd pay a bonus for an uber without a driver.
Same with teslabot. I'd pay WAY more for a domestic teslabot than for a home cleaner. I don't mind droids in my house, I don't want random people there .

 

[Matias]

But isn't FSD better now and they have cut the price? $15k -> $12k -> $8k? $199/month to $99/month?

To be clear; of course FSD is now better than 2020, but this is what Musk said.

 

[Usain]

If you're the drug dealer, it is very common to front the drug to get them hooked. If it's addictive, you may have a customer for life.

Exactly!

FSD is essentially a software play. And we have a saying in the software business.

"Software is like dealing drugs. Our customers are called users and the first hit is free."

 

[AZRI11]

I thought the hold up was the Vegas city council. Until they allow driverless in the tunnels it won't happen. I'm sure the Boring company is working on this, but city councils are notorious for not embracing new technology.

Fire Marshal not the city council.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I think true disengagement data is only known on real FSD vs shadow mode.

Even better data is unsupervised (AND unoccupied) leading to an accident. This is the only pure “street” data that must take into account the actions and responses from the other vehicles and the entire accident scene, including weather, time of day etc.

Yesterday, I had what I thought was a CDE (Critical DisEngagement). It seemed to hug the left curb on Chandler Blvd, but I kept it engaged for observation.

The next break in the center divide made it appear as though it was going to clip the upcoming Island curb so I took over. Was it this a Critical DE? If it did touch the curb, accident is still uncertain.

Even Tesla’s internal data is likely vague. Unsupervised will take priority soon I believe. If not simply for the fact that our current version was named “FSD (Supervised)”.

 

[Krugerrand]

But isn't FSD better now and they have cut the price? $15k -> $12k -> $8k? $199/month to $99/month?

Forest for the trees. In oh so many ways.

 

[Usain]

I think Musk's plan is just to turn it on and see what happens

That's what a stupid engineer might do. Say what you want about Elon's politics. He's not a stupid engineer.

 

[cliff harris]

Christ, does anyone think a tweet from elon 4 years ago is relevant? For the love of god, things change! I am very happy to have Elon Musk as our happy-to-pivot CEO rather than have the company run like apple (shall we/shall we not make a car) or toyoyta (hydrogen is totally going to be a thing).
Tesla has eaten every other car company's lunch precisely because they are nimbler and adaptive. Hence swapping 18650 to 2170 then to 4680. Swapping from welding to gigapress. Changing FSD algorithm many, many times, swapping from LIDAR+RADAR to camera only.

 

[Snerruc]

I’m beginning to wonder if we are seeing a weakness in Tesla’s sales model. Their only response to slower sales appears to be cut prices. Some times adding a”special package” of accessories works, or more variety ie colors, etc. Also, expecting people to spend a large amount of money just over a computer just isn’t going to work for many. I’m pretty much 100% on people I’ve described the Tesla buying experience to saying they would never spend that kind of money sight unseen on line. When I bought my first, my neighbors thought I needed an intervention.

 

[Usain]

Real people in the real world are enthusiastic about Tesla and its cars, especially the Cybertruck, despite the haters online.

It's actually kind of weird that I constantly run into Tesla-praise from Drive-Thru workers. They see cars all day long, and I'm always getting, "Hey, I love your Tesla."

Happened again just yesterday in my Model 3.

 

[Usain]

Disengagement data could come from running FSD in shadow mode and where the human driver does something different from what FSD was predicting = disengagement.

As I understand it, Tesla does exactly what you describe.

But Tesla still needs to test the opposite scenario to answer the question, "What does FSD do that makes users disengage?" That's a different metric from just finding out the delta between what the human did and what FSD would have done.

 

[capster]

It's actually kind of weird that I constantly run into Tesla-praise from Drive-Thru workers. They see cars all day long, and I'm always getting, "Hey, I love your Tesla."

Happened again just yesterday in my Model 3.

Finding the difference between the online and real world being so stark has mostly been a heartening experience for me as well as being revelatory.

I am saddened by the deleterious effects an online diet of bile, bullying and negativity is having on individuals and society.

I never joined Fibbook, er, Facebook though I did join X when Elon bought it and that’s been an education .

This forum is my main "social media." I appreciate all of my fellow long-term shareholders here as well as the work of the mods to keep this a worthwhile place to hang out online.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Christ, does anyone think a tweet from elon 4 years ago is relevant? For the love of god, things change! I am very happy to have Elon Musk as our happy-to-pivot CEO rather than have the company run like apple (shall we/shall we not make a car) or toyoyta (hydrogen is totally going to be a thing).
Tesla has eaten every other car company's lunch precisely because they are nimbler and adaptive. Hence swapping 18650 to 2170 then to 4680. Swapping from welding to gigapress. Changing FSD algorithm many, many times, swapping from LIDAR+RADAR to camera only.

Apple is worth ~5.5x Tesla.

 

[jschwefel]

My Realtor showed up with a new CRV. I couldn't help but to tease him for buying an antique gas car. He went on about range, and the CRV being the best buy out there!

Yep…once again, the only people with range anxiety are the people that don’t own a Tesla. Old habits are hard to break.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Elon Musk postpones India visit, says "very much look forward to visiting later this year"

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has postponed his visit to India, CNBC-TV18 reported on April 20 citing sources familiar with the development. The immediate reasons for the postponement are not known as yet

www.businesstoday.in

Trip to India delayed.