Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[DarkandStormy]

Thanks for posting this. I stopped following Gary about a year ago and seeing him admit how wrong he was about Tesla, I’m glad I did.

Yes, he was quite wrong, eh?

 

[DarkandStormy]

Not if you have an agenda...and that user definitely has a agenda.

"Oh no, this person doesn't spend every waking second reading every post here...they must have an agenda!"

A tale as old as (internet) time. People unable to understand that not everyone has the exact same opinion and viewpoint as themselves and do not care to take the time to bother trying to see things a different way. Since they can't do that, resort to attacks like "troll" and "having an agenda."

 

[jschwefel]

Please, one should not disregard others' concerns simply because they are not yours.

I have owned Teslas since 2017, and while range is not an issue for my day-to-day uses, it is most certainly an issue for some of my once-a-month-or-so uses. With a nod to the moderators, I won't re-ignite the endless discussions of why more SuperChargers are desperately needed and will be for the foreseeable future, or the endless discussions of why I would immediately upgrade to a 500mi version and perhaps enough others would as well to justify production, etc.

Instead, I would simply ask everyone to consider that when someone conveys a concern of theirs that is not a concern for us, perhaps the other person is horribly mis-informed. But also, perhaps, just maybe, the other person actually has a concern that is valid for them, and one shouldn't just be dismissive of it out of hand.

Forgive me. It’s not my intent to disregard someone’s concerns. I’m only saying that the majority of the people with range concerns, have not actually experienced owning a Tesla. To be fair, I don’t know if that was the case with this person, but that has been the case with many folks I’ve encountered. In fact, I know quite a few folks who once had range anxiety confess it was a perception and not reality once they owned a Tesla.

 

[jerry33]

Forgive me. It’s not my intent to disregard someone’s concerns. I’m only saying that the majority of the people with range concerns, have not actually experienced owning a Tesla. To be fair, I don’t know if that was the case with this person, but that has been the case with many folks I’ve encountered. In fact, I know quite a few folks who once had range anxiety confess it was a perception and not reality once they owned a Tesla.

This has been my experience with the exceptions of people who live in very cold climates, tow trailers, or have experience local power outages on a trip (in this last case, gas cars are not immune). All would be rectified if there was no more than 50-75 miles between Superchargers.

 

[MC3OZ]

What does it take to get working Robotaxis?

IMO the answer is mostly compute hardware, and maps may play a minor role in smooth path predictions.

If we assume that compute hardware is going to be very expensive, then recent moves make some sense:-

• Staff layoffs - freeing up funds for compute hardware, reordering priorities.
• Delaying compact Model 2 - avoiding contention for capital with compute hardware.
• Dropping the price of FSD - helping to fund compute hardware.

If Tesla wants working Robotaxis ,the training compute hardware investments need to be made.

Megapack is low capex and can be expanded with no resources clash.

For Model 2 this issue isn't just factories to build the cars, it is deliveries, service, logistics, Supercharging, etc,

One likely factor is any serious move to Model 2 would put considerable strain on logistics and deliveries. The are probably reworking how service, logistics and deliveries will work

Robotaxis are easier in terms of logistics, service and deliveries, the service will probably be launched on a city-by-city basis with a number of hubs within a city providing charging, cleaning and service. Logistics will just need to do a bulk delivery of cars to one of the hubs.

So my speculation is that when Tesla looked at Robotaxi and Model 2 it was difficult to do both well especially in the current macro environment, and they decide more time to prepare for Model 2 and more focus on Robotaxis, was the best path forward.

So Model 2 might tend up being lower volume than Robotaxis and Tesla will have more time to prepare for it.,

 

[nativewolf]

I have made many statements about that Waymo's RT is bad business and have been discussed to the ground. Musk predicted from years ahead thar their style of RT has only one outcome, which is BK. You have to reduce opex and hardware cost. You have to enable all routes, not like a bus type program where it goes to specific routes. To make matter worst, waymo is extremely slow vs uber and cost more. It solves no problems beside "look ma, no hands!"

L5 with cheap easy to manufacture hardware and avalible to the masses for cheap Opex or bust. Musk knows this and it's why he will die on this hill even though Tesla could do what waymo is doing(many companies have done it with way less engineers and resources, it's not difficult besides the actual profitability part).

EM ignores the reality of the driving publics needs, profits come from dense urban areas and they are very focused niche needs. Not broad segments and not very many cars/market. Cars make lots of trips in the city where parking is a problem. They make lots of trips for people eating out and bar hopping. They ferry airport traffic to the detriment of rental car companies. This is the market at this time and I simply do not see how it expands in a Pollyanna fashion. To expand they'll have to make it dirt cheap and the physical constraints of ferrying someone from (for example) Herndon VA to downtown DC means that a car will ferry at most 2 commuters a day. If they do 2 trips they make at least 1 if not 2 empty rides. Anyway no need to dig this all back up, you will see what Waymo does in a year or two.

 

[nativewolf]

FIFY, who says they "cannot"?
Goodbye #5...

State of California for one. Man, it's your money, invest it how you like. Don't go around blabbering that RT is going to save Tesla because those revenues are not coming anytime soon. FSD software fees, sure. TaaS with RT...nope.

 

[jschwefel]

View attachment 1040542

Yes, he was quite wrong, eh?

Okay, he wasn’t all wrong, but even a broken clock is right twice a day.

In general, I consider the opinions of stock analysts for their entertainment value, not where I put my money. This has served me well over the years, but to each his own. I suggest doing your own research and invest accordingly.

 

[jschwefel]

This has been my experience with the exceptions of people who live in very cold climates, tow trailers, or have experience local power outages on a trip (in this last case, gas cars are not immune). All would be rectified if there was no more than 50-75 miles between Superchargers.

Yeah…cold climates and towing, especially towing, are range killers. Having driven Teslas since 2016, I bought a diesel truck in 2021 to tow my 25’ camper. The diesel does what I need it to, but I will soon be towing the camper with my new Cybertruck. Sure, I’ll have to stop more often, and I won’t be driving 400-500 miles a day, but I’m sooo looking forward to driving electric and the maintenance free experience!

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

This has been my experience with the exceptions of people who live in very cold climates, tow trailers, or have experience local power outages on a trip (in this last case, gas cars are not immune). All would be rectified if there was no more than 50-75 miles between Superchargers.

50-75 miles isn't necessarily enough for areas with outages. You need Superchargers where people go regularly.

 

[nativewolf]

RT is a great business as long as you can make a profit.

Waymo has not shown a path to profitability because their technology is inferior. Not only are Waymo's specially-equipped vehicles expensive, their operation is still highly dependent on lots of human labor monitoring behind the scenes and with drivers deployed in the field for when the cars get stuck.

So the more cities Waymo rolls out to, the more money they lose. Waymo has to figure out how to operate at a profit.

Tesla's approach to autonomy is far advanced of Waymo's and will be much cheaper and more profitable. The difference is that Tesla's system has taken much longer to develop.

Tesla is creating purpose-built robotaxis at a fraction of Waymo's cost. Since there is no reliance on HD maps, Tesla can quickly roll out to larger service areas. And re-mapping will never be a problem when roads change or go under construction. I also expect that Tesla's robotaxis will need far less human labor behind the scenes. The reason is that Tesla's vehicles are learning how to drive like a human. FSD is being trained to avoid difficult situations and do advanced maneuvers that Waymo can't handle with its more heuristic approach.

So the way I see this playing out is that FSD is on a trajectory to improve very, very rapidly. While Waymo continues to hemorage money after all these years, Tesla's network will be profitable relatively soon after launching. Waymo's system simply won't be able to compete on cost. So in any market Tesla wants to enter, its robotaxis will undercut the prices of Waymo, Uber, and Lyft.

Tesla wins and you won't be able to see second place with a telescope.

Ok and Tesla is not hemorrhaging monies on FSD? Waymo is not even trying to make money yet, when they put the 50k RTs on the road then they will be trying to make money. Waymo is clearly setting out to solve driving in the major Uber profit centers in the USA, even a nimnut can see this. They are solving specific issues, they are mapping everything. You keep making a blanket statement that Waymo has yet to figure out how to operate at a profit, so I would point you to this very basic super clear plan. They will roll out services in the exact same spaces as Uber once they receive their 50k vehicles. Because...drum roll. 50k vehicles will suck nearly all the profit out of TaaS in the USA. That's it. That is the profit. From there they can expand but they'll be able to do this before Tesla. 50k cars doing 50 rides a day in dense urban areas. 2,500,000 rides a day is the profit in Uber.

Re Uber and TaaS..I've studied it. I may not be correct in all aspects but I'd want an Uber executive to dispute my analysis. I know a few specific cities such as san fran having on average 6000 cars a day. I have no idea where pricing will go but it would not surprise me to see it be free for the first 100 rides/passenger just to kill Uber in a given geography. So it is not an product/services dumping issue. The standard rate will be low, low enough to keep the Uber drivers from coming back to work.

 

[Quesder]

FUTU overnight trading session(mostly Chinese investors)TSLA is now only $143.110
the reason is apparently the product price drop.

 

[Singuy]

Ok and Tesla is not hemorrhaging monies on FSD? Waymo is not even trying to make money yet, when they put the 50k RTs on the road then they will be trying to make money. Waymo is clearly setting out to solve driving in the major Uber profit centers in the USA, even a nimnut can see this. They are solving specific issues, they are mapping everything. You keep making a blanket statement that Waymo has yet to figure out how to operate at a profit, so I would point you to this very basic super clear plan. They will roll out services in the exact same spaces as Uber once they receive their 50k vehicles. Because...drum roll. 50k vehicles will suck nearly all the profit out of TaaS in the USA. That's it. That is the profit. From there they can expand but they'll be able to do this before Tesla. 50k cars doing 50 rides a day in dense urban areas. 2,500,000 rides a day is the profit in Uber.

Re Uber and TaaS..I've studied it. I may not be correct in all aspects but I'd want an Uber executive to dispute my analysis. I know a few specific cities such as san fran having on average 6000 cars a day. I have no idea where pricing will go but it would not surprise me to see it be free for the first 100 rides/passenger just to kill Uber in a given geography. So it is not an product/services dumping issue. The standard rate will be low, low enough to keep the Uber drivers from coming back to work.

Uber/Waymo and Tesla solves two different problems where the problem Tesla solves will make Waymo and Uber irrelevant.

Uber/Waymo is giving urbanites a way to travel in connivence for an extra fee beyond public transportation. Getting people closer to their destination without having to wait for a bus or walk up and down the subway

Tesla's RT tackles the problem of complete and full self driving to anywhere at a fraction of the cost vs OWNING YOUR OWN CAR.
In it's master plan, these RT will just straight up replace everyone's cars because there will be millions running on the road. You can call one whenever you want with less than 5 min wait time. When it's solved, Uber/Waymo/ or even car buying becomes irrelevant. This is why no one is worried about Tesla giving Waymo the market. They can go ahead and take that market and then Tesla comes in at 1/4th their price and bankrupt them then if they actually make it to 50k cars.

 

[capster]

So, after driving the Cybertruck for a while now, I have to admit it’s not something that you’d be calling a "Robotaxi"…

… rather it’ll be more of a "Robolimo."

 

[anthonyj]

If I have to sit through this earnings call while my service center acts clueless about my Cybertruck sitting in the lot, I might lose it and get out. I don’t care about the stock price. I can’t get an estimate on when my truck will get this stupid rivet. The “repair kit” is a 3d printed jig… just print it and overnight it… not one service tech even knows about the recall. “Skeleton crew” after the recent layoffs. They were already short staffed and now running around like chickens with their heads cut off.

I’m not happy with how Tesla is communicating with customers. And the Model X I am replacing with the CT just lost $2,000 in value because of a 2 week wait over a stupid rivet

 

[DarkandStormy]

Elon Musk’s Robotaxi Dreams Plunge Tesla Into Chaos

The stock is sliding, a cheaper electric car is deprioritized and the CEO is riling the workforce with his biggest layoffs yet.

www.bloomberg.com

The actual number of people ushered out may exceed 20,000, according to people familiar with the company’s planning. Musk’s reasoning, according to one person with direct knowledge of his edicts, was that Tesla should reduce headcount by 20% because its vehicle deliveries dropped by that amount from the fourth quarter to the first quarter.

Super genius at work.

 

[ggies07]

Uber/Waymo and Tesla solves two different problems where the problem Tesla solves will make Waymo and Uber irrelevant.

Uber/Waymo is giving urbanites a way to travel in connivence for an extra fee beyond public transportation. Getting people closer to their destination without having to wait for a bus or walk up and down the subway

Tesla's RT tackles the problem of complete and full self driving to anywhere at a fraction of the cost vs OWNING YOUR OWN CAR.
In it's master plan, these RT will just straight up replace everyone's cars because there will be millions running on the road. You can call one whenever you want with less than 5 min wait time. When it's solved, Uber/Waymo/ or even car buying becomes irrelevant. This is why no one is worried about Tesla giving Waymo the market. They can go ahead and take that market and then Tesla comes in at 1/4th their price and bankrupt them then if they actually make it to 50k cars.

Hell YES! Let's do this, but don't f***ing tease me for another 5 years. Do it and do it quick.

 

[OrthoSurg]

How come you can take the M3 MY demand drop so easily? That alone has caused probably $50 SP decrease, and we don’t see the problem going to be alleviated in Q2.

Regarding interest rate, that is not that bad in China, but the Tesla car sales is still decreasing.

Because Elon expected this 2 or 3 earning call earlier. He said demand would diminish and they would still lower prices to lower or even negative margin to pump cars out. He is doing exactly as planned and what he expected is happening.

 

[nativewolf]

Uber/Waymo and Tesla solves two different problems where the problem Tesla solves will make Waymo and Uber irrelevant.

Uber/Waymo is giving urbanites a way to travel in connivence for an extra fee beyond public transportation. Getting people closer to their destination without having to wait for a bus or walk up and down the subway

Tesla's RT tackles the problem of complete and full self driving to anywhere at a fraction of the cost vs OWNING YOUR OWN CAR.
In it's master plan, these RT will just straight up replace everyone's cars because there will be millions running on the road. You can call one whenever you want with less than 5 min wait time. When it's solved, Uber/Waymo/ or even car buying becomes irrelevant. This is why no one is worried about Tesla giving Waymo the market. They can go ahead and take that market and then Tesla comes in at 1/4th their price and bankrupt them then if they actually make it to 50k cars.

I fail to see Tesla offering a viable path to not owning a vehicle. You and others keep stating this but show no viable mechanism for Tesla to achieve it. Please provide for me an example of a RT in metro DC/LA/Chicago/etc. Map it out. Count mins and miles. Average person in the USA example Pick any large metro region. I think you are in Seattle. Use Everett to Seattle. 24 miles. It's about average. To ensure you are there on time 19/20 days you need to count on 70 or so mins according to the data I see. One way...70 mins...for 1 passenger, twice a day. Now during the rest of the day....tell me what the cars are doing? It can't take an early commuter unless you think there is a rush at 530am. So it was busy from 7:45 to 9:00am and will be again from 5:00 to 6:15pm. It won't make it back to Seattle to get another commuter, even if it dead headed (riding with no load). So, it can take 1 person a day on commuting.

How does that scale? How do you ever overcome that? Everybody that commutes needs a ride. I see 5 hours with very low use between commutes (giving your a couple of hours of lunch), it's why many Uber drivers are taking people around breakfast spots or to meetings early in AM then ...nothing. Then Lunch...then nothing, then dining bar hoping trips. They don't normally do commuting. In the San Fran metro there are 6000 uber drivers filling all the small ride needs and the reason there are not more is because it doesn't make money...the riders are not there. The cars that are there needed their own car, car full of stuff, work vehicle, etc.

I say again I don't see how you solve the average persons needs with a RT. Mechanically, I don't see it. Explain how we suddenly increase the market. Parked cars are the reason the streets traffic is light and light traffic means there is little demand. Demand is not constant. You don't shove 100k commuting vehicles in a metro region back on the road to do something else because there is basically nothing to do. Then you have a telework problem. 25-50% of workers get to telework 1-2 days a week. Almost all on Monday and Friday. So, you really need to move people Tuesday-Thursday.

I look forward to your thoughts.

 

[geometro]

Elon Musk’s Robotaxi Dreams Plunge Tesla Into Chaos

The stock is sliding, a cheaper electric car is deprioritized and the CEO is riling the workforce with his biggest layoffs yet.

www.bloomberg.com

Super genius at work.

I’m not sure this is accurate, but if it is then it’s very odd logic. Can’t cut your way to growth.
Of course depends on which departments were impacted.