Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Yesterday... cool.

Spoiler: ARK

 

[cliff harris]

"Uncertain macroeconomic environment" is, IMO, a code word that consumers were skittish. Aka they weren't willing to spend a lot of money on EVs.

Not sure we've seen data that it is changing in Q2.

There is a good chance that even if interest rates do not start actually falling, that there will be forward guidance, in various markets that they will be falling soon. I think its not fully appreciated that a $30,000 with high interest payments will cost the average buyer WAY more than a $30,000 car with low interest payments.
Hopefully prices of new Tesla's will relatively stabilize now, which is another good sign, as people will stop holding back in the hope of a better deal later.

 

[Usain]

It's not a problem for universal only-means-one-thing signs like stop signs.

It's a major problem for signs where the words matter.

A lot of parking signs come immediately to mind where you have to know more than "that is a parking sign"-- you need to read the hours and days and lengths of time and other conditions parking is allowed or not.

Ditto with school zone signs that are also hour/day dependent and not at all universal.

Another one is signs like road closed to through traffic, but local traffic is ok... maybe your destination is in that local traffic only area-- if you just reject because you see a generic road-closed you'll never get to your destination.

Lots of other examples I'm sure (and even more in other countries)

Understanding semantics is a nice-to-have feature. Like I said, illiterate people can drive and be granted a driver's license. It's not a serious obstacle to robotaxi rollout.

 

[dedicatedtek]

universal only-means-one-thing signs

very much like Mod notes

/s

 

[SOULPEDL]

Did ya hear that?
Some nice TSLA volume today.
Looks to be tracking the S&P as well. Means TSLA is holding their gains for now.


Also, feeding the Trolls again are we?

 

[Knightshade]

Understanding semantics is a nice-to-have feature. Like I said, illiterate people can drive and be granted a driver's license. It's not a serious obstacle to robotaxi rollout.

Anywhere I've ever lived a license requires a written exam.... might be there's alternatives, I've never had cause to check.

But unless you want your RT routinely ticketed for speeding in school zones, towed for illegal parking, and various other serious problems it's a serious obstacle to driverless robotaxis.

Even dumber- reading signs is EASY so I'm baffled how anyones even arguing about it.

AP one read speed limit signs back in 2014.

it hasn't been a priority because humans can read and they're required in the car still--- but if you want to remove them you need to have the system capable of all the tasks they're currently relied on for-- including reading (and understanding) relevant signs.

 

[hitchhiker]

Same! (Well, actually owner of 3 since 2020 (currently 2). Sold all my TSLA shares this morning. Fan of the company but believe I can find a better place to invest than the stock.

name tracks.

 

[jerry33]

There is a good chance that even if interest rates do not start actually falling, that there will be forward guidance, in various markets that they will be falling soon. I think its not fully appreciated that a $30,000 with high interest payments will cost the average buyer WAY more than a $30,000 car with low interest payments.
Hopefully prices of new Tesla's will relatively stabilize now, which is another good sign, as people will stop holding back in the hope of a better deal later.

That's true with any loan where rate > 0 and worse for long term loans. The only way to reduce cost is to pay it off early.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Some shorties this week are gonna either have to move the earth or get the heck out a there by Friday.
This is your 48 hr notice!
Let's Go!

 

[Unpilot]

Some shorties this week are gonna either have to move the earth or get the heck out a there by Friday.
This is your 48 hr notice!
Let's Go!

View attachment 1041331

Max-Pain currently at 150...will move up a bit by Friday.

 

[kbM3]

But that is the thing, no new factories are needed. The factories now are not at full utilization. There is slack in the system that could be used.

Reading this after the call. How prescient!

 

[DarkandStormy]

Yes, just like FSD and RTs, it took longer. Just like Boring Tunnels. Just like Energy. Just like Cybertruck. Just like Juniper. AND CYBERVans. AND A.S.S. (Actual S S.), AND GigaIndia. AND GigaMexico. AND Semi. But.it.is.all.coming

-FSD - full autonomy was supposed to be here in 2018. It's still not.
-Semi, unveiled in 2017, was supposed to go into production in 2019. They've sold Pepsi 37 and production is now moved to 2026.
-Roadster 2020 - no timeline
-Dojo - basically getting replaced by Nvidia?
-4680s - unveiled in August 2020, basically none of what was predicted is coming to fruition.

But sure, it's all coming. Yep.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Good point. Just like how no one buys a Honda accord because of the Honda civic being available.

This would be a relevant post if Model Y hadn't cannibalized Model 3 sales.

 

[cab]

I'm not sure if this counts, but I know that the Chevy Bolt and Chevy Sonic once shared an assembly line at the Orion plant in MI. They were both designed by Daewoo in South Korea, but the Bolt was an EV and the Sonic was ICE. They were of similar size, but I'm not sure if they really had that much in common as the Bolt was designed from the ground up to be an EV.

Thanks. That is an interesting example for sure. Bolt and Sonic on same line

 

[DarkandStormy]

Furthering the point, from the 2024 Q1 update:





@DarkandStormy I noticed you often don't like to reply when it's pointed out that one of your points may not be valid. Doesn't feel like you are interested in honest discourse....

Their gross margins declined. Their Op Margin % for the quarter was 5.5%, which is bad abd below most other automakers.

While the teams are focused on cost reductions, we are approaching the limits within our current platforms

^That's what the CFO said in January. Do you think he was lying?

 

[Usain]

Anywhere I've ever lived a license requires a written exam.... might be there's alternatives, I've never had cause to check.

The exam can be given orally. It's even written into law in some states. FSD can be illiterate and still function as a robotaxi.

And since FSD could be technically classified as dyslexic, the robotaxi would qualify under the Americans with Disabilities Act and be entitled to some dandy benefits. (unfortunately, not handicapped parking though)

 

[Electroman]

Any update on Semi. It seems to have completely stalled and no end in sight?

All the noise on thousands of reservations and a few deliveries to PepsiCo have all gone quiet... Even investors have lost interest in this product?

 

[Knightshade]

This would be a relevant post if Model Y hadn't cannibalized Model 3 sales.

Do you have a citation for that?

2019 Model 3 sales (last year without the Y on sale) Tesla sold 307,631 Model 3.

AFAIK they sold significantly more than that in 2023, despite the Y being the best selling car in the world.

 

[Drax7]

-FSD - full autonomy was supposed to be here in 2018. It's still not.
-Semi, unveiled in 2017, was supposed to go into production in 2019. They've sold Pepsi 37 and production is now moved to 2026.
-Roadster 2020 - no timeline
-Dojo - basically getting replaced by Nvidia?
-4680s - unveiled in August 2020, basically none of what was predicted is coming to fruition.

You need a publicist.

 

[Krugerrand]

This may provide insight into the changes in management and other job cuts of late. Some of these people may have been influences that resulted in a delay, simply because they didn't see things the way Elon can, yet persuaded him onto more conservative paths.

In the interest of understanding Elon better, I've been working my way through the Iain Banks "Culture" series. The book, Player of Games, was clearly an influence for Elon. He is most certainly a masterful player of games.

This book was also the source for the ship names "Just Read The Instructions" and "Of Course I Still Love You" which were used for SpaceX floating landing platforms. Reading it seems to have left a lasting impression on him.

I know people disagree with me and/or think it’s funny that I’d suggest they don’t understand.

Don’t care. There’s a reason I don’t lose my mind or fall for the bs like so many others. Ever. Why even if the numbers are less than ideal, I don’t panic. Elon is the key to it all. He’s the piece in the game of Jenga that allows the tower to remain standing, no matter the precarious construction, even when there’s a stiff wind. No matter what anyone says or thinks, he won’t abandon Tesla. He won’t let it fail. I know this at my core.