Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[DarkandStormy]

What, exactly, do we think the "new EVs" on the Model 3 / Y lines are going to be?

Are they / we counting Model Y refresh / Project Juniper as one of these?

Is there going to be a compact car?

Or a van? What do we think the breakdown and timelines are going to be?

This was too vague from the report.

It was vague because it was a half baked idea to try to save the stock since it was the worst performing in the S&P 500 this year outside of Boeing. Elon was asked directly for more details and he punted.

If they were planning on new models this year we'd have reports of prototype testing. There have been none. It can take up to a year for regulatory approval for a new model in the U.S. they could share details if that process has started. They didn't. If new models were coming this year don't you think they'd be taking customer deposits?

When they don't deliver anything new this year people will say "oh, that's Elon Time, being optimistic" when it's plainly obvious it's not going to happen from the moment it was announced.

 

[Mengy]

Any update on Semi. It seems to have completely stalled and no end in sight?

All the noise on thousands of reservations and a few deliveries to PepsiCo have all gone quiet... Even investors have lost interest in this product?

They will keep building some more both for Pepsi and for Tesla this year on the slow temp production line. Giga Nevada expansion is where the high volume line will be, construction is underway now and should begin running early 2026.

 

[DarkandStormy]

You need a publicist.

Thank you for the worthwhile discussion.

 

[Knightshade]

FSD can be illiterate and still function as a robotaxi.

I mean, if you don't mind it being ticketed, booted, and towed routinely, sure. Even impounded in some places (where speeding high enough through a school zone for example will cause that to happen).

Otherwise not so much.

Any update on Semi. It seems to have completely stalled and no end in sight?

2026 for customer deliveries is what they said on the call yesterday

 

[DarkandStormy]

Any update on Semi. It seems to have completely stalled and no end in sight?

All the noise on thousands of reservations and a few deliveries to PepsiCo have all gone quiet... Even investors have lost interest in this product?

Pepsi was supposed to get 100 last year (previously supposed to get them in 2022...2021...you know the drill).

They've received 37.

 

[ABCTG]

The Tesla service/sales/delivery center near us in southern California is using a closed dealership parking area for storage. It is fully packed with Teslas.
Drove by there yesterday as a car carrier truck load of eight Teslas was parked outside.
It was very clear there were only three spots remaining. Saw the driver walking into the unstaffed lot, most likely trying to figure out where they can be dropped off.
This vehicle storage area is in addition to the nearby parking area being used at a closed restaurant

I understand that Red Sea issues, and Giga Berlin power outage caused by terrorism has affected production and delivery, but the oversupply here in the US needs to be addressed.

I think a few weeks of retooling at Fremont wouldn't hurt to ease the buildup of inventory.

 

[keydiver]

4680’s could go into the 3 effectively dropping the price 15-20% by getting the tax credit back. That would make a difference

Yes, agree, but I got the impression from the EC that they have no plans for 4680 in a Model 3. Hopefully they're working on a different plan to get the IRA applied to Model 3. Maybe LFP Made in USA? Maybe that can't happen in 2024, but Tesla tends to think more longterm.

 

[sunwarriors]

Their gross margins declined. Their Op Margin % for the quarter was 5.5%, which is bad abd below most other automakers.



^That's what the CFO said in January. Do you think he was lying?

For reference, the data of that 5.5% and what it used to be:

https://insideevs.com/news/716959/tesla-q1-2024-earnings-report/

2022 was over 19% (price cuts will do that):

Tesla (TSLA) achieved a ~17% operating margin in 2022, the best of any volume carmaker, demand is ever-higher, Musk on earnings call — Q4 report, more - Tesla Oracle

Tesla (TSLA) reveals its financial information for Q4 and full year 2022 in a report to investors. Automaker's operating margins jump to 17%. Q4 2022 earnings call, more.

www.teslaoracle.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

when including Capex, a crucial line item and the basis for future expectations, the reality is that for the first time in several years they do not now generate enough cash flow to support all their plans.

Inventory build during Q1 accounts for about 2 billion dollars of the drop in free cash flow. This is a one-time occurrence due to a number of force majeure events and the ramping of two new products. Capex for AI compute will also be a transient item, albeit a large one, but largely complete by the end of 2024. Tesla told us plainly in the earnings letter that they have sufficient capital to fund all of their plans. The important point is that Tesla does not have to go to the market to raise capital; they are still self-funding.

Monterrey wasn't delayed due to lack of capital: Tesla has over 26 billion dollars in cash. Shanghai was built for less than 10 billion dollars, so was Texas. The scarce resource right now is engineering talent. That's why it's being pooled and concentrated in Texas during the development work of the unboxed process. Further, by implementing a hybrid manufacturing system right now, certain unboxed modules IE: the powertrain or 48v electricals can be built into the existing platform and assembly lines. This is a good use of capital, and it is the pragmatic solution to increasing volume now while continuing to build financial strength.

Think AGILE.

 

[Musskiah]

-FSD - full autonomy was supposed to be here in 2018. It's still not. AND YOU KNOW IT'S QUITE CLOSE

-Semi, unveiled in 2017, was supposed to go into production in 2019. They've sold Pepsi 37 and production is now moved to 2026. COMING IN 2026. FOCUSING ON AI FOR ROBOTAXIS AND MAXIMIZING OUTPUT FROM EXISTING LINES. AGILE PIVOT.

-Roadster 2020 - no timeline ANNOUNCEMENT COMING SOON

-Dojo - basically getting replaced by Nvidia? FALSE. NEXT GEN DOJO GOING IN AT BUFFALO FOR $500M. DOJO ALSO BEING BUILT IN AUSTIN. THEY ARE SIMULTANEOUSLY PERSUING NVDA ROUTE. CONCENTRATING SPENDING ON AI BOTH NVIDIA CHIPS AND DOJO. LOVE IT!

-4680s - unveiled in August 2020, basically none of what was predicted is coming to fruition. FALSE. AS I EXPLAINED PREVIOUSLY, THERE IS A 4680 SUPPLY GLUT AS TESLA INSPIRED OTHER MANUFACTURERS (CATL, LG, PANASONIC. AND OTHERS) TO CREATE THE FORM FACTOR FOR TESLA. BATTERY MARGINS ARE THIN - THEY WOULD PREFER NOT TO BE IN THE BATTERY PRODUCTION BUSINESS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. TESLA CONTINUES TO RAMP IN HOUSE 4680 PRODUCTION, BUT NOW THERE IS ABUNDANT SUPPLY, SO BATTERIES ARE NOT THE BOTTLENECK

So yes. Everything is coming. I'll reiterate also Energy Megafactories, Cybertruck, Juniper, CYBERCabs, CYBERVans, A.S.S. (Actual S S.), cheaper hybrid 2/3/Y vehicles, GigaIndia, GigaMexico. All inevitable. All in time.

"the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” -WB

 

[mongo]

Elon seems convinced that the only way to make a robotaxi profitable is to use creative manufacturing methods to reduce the cost of each unit. The present approach used by Waymo and others is to build a handcrafted robotaxi using an existing vehicle outfitted with a diverse array of sensors. Although this approach has proven to be technically feasible, the cost per unit produced is too high to presently be profitable. New technologies succeed because they provide a benefit, either new features, lower cost or in some cases both. Robotaxis do not provide any new features over that which existing rideshare options provide (other than the novelty), so a robotaxi must be less expensive in order to maintain profitability.

I don't agree with that interpretation. Taxis are currently profitable with a human driver and bog standard ICE vehicles. If anything, a revenue generating vehicle can absorb higher cost.

Robotaxi would have crazy high demand and so Tesla is optimizing the rate at which a factory can churn them out. This also drives down cost for a more affordable mass market vehicle.

 

[growler23]

Did ya hear that?
Some nice TSLA volume today.
Looks to be tracking the S&P as well. Means TSLA is holding their gains for now.


Also, feeding the Trolls again are we?

But.. we got some new ones, and they look hungry?

 

[Musskiah]

This would be a relevant post if Model Y hadn't cannibalized Model 3 sales.

Model Y was always expected to canabalize Model 3 sales, as Model 2 will do to M3/MY to some degree. This is what we want, using less resources to trend towards more effecient vehicles to capture more TAM and get more vehicles on the road more quickly to FEED FSD real world data.

 

[Artful Dodger]

And remember the pics of covered chassis seen in Austin and Fremont? We were wondering if it was a Model Y or not? No, were not looking at the RT new gen chassis, but it could have been the new cheaper Tesla in development. Which has been described as a smaller Y.

Those two photographs were taken at Austin and Berlin by Joe Tegtmeyer and Tobias Lindt. I posted an analysis of the Berlin photo back in February in another thread. It's clear that the undercover car in Berlin was a Model Y body from the front bumper to the rear passenger area, then truncated in length by about a foot in the rear.

Significantly, this vehicle was being built in Berlin. There is spare capacity inside the Phase One Assembly Hall to build this new vehicle there, and if it reuses the majority of the stamping dies and the safety and engineering from the Model Y, then it will be very quick to put into production. Which is what we heard yesterday on the conference call. Don't be surprised if we see it before the end of Q4 2024.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I really don't care what he has to say about ..... anything. What are his qualifications? What is his experise? Living in your car, shoving all your funds into one stock, and losing your marraige over it and acting half your age doesn't make you smart or worth listening to.

Well then you're making a different topic out of his Tweet. That guy is wired differently than 99.9% of the population. He's a combination of highly intelligent and next-level compulsiveness. It worked for him, sometimes that combo is disastrous. By the way, I'm pretty sure he was single when he went to his nutso extremes for Tesla stock.

 

[DarkandStormy]

So yes. Everything is coming. I'll reiterate also Energy Megafactories, Cybertruck, Juniper, CYBERCabs, CYBERVans,A.S.S. (Actual S S.), cheaper hybrid 2/3/Y vehicles, GigaIndia, GigaMexico. All inevitable. All in time.

"the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” -WB

Sure, by 2050 they'll all be here. Thanks for the analysis.

 

[hobbes]

This would be a relevant post if Model Y hadn't cannibalized Model 3 sales.

Do you think without introducing Model Y Tesla would have sold as many Model 3s as they do Y+3 in total now? That´s what counts.

 

[Musskiah]

Sure, by 2050 they'll all be here. Thanks for the analysis.

I'm always happy to engage your eternal skepticism @DarkandStormy

 

[Artful Dodger]

The after hours move has left a big gap up. Wonder if these are always filled or sometimes one is left alone.

Not this one. This is what's called an island reversal. The market did fill a gap which was open since January 24th, 2023 earlier this week. The next outstanding Gap is a very tiny one to early January 2023 at about the $122 level, but that one will probably be ignored as noise.

To find the next significant sized Gap, one has to go all the way back to August 13, 2020 with the start of the 5:1 Share Dividend run-up. Wedgies have been dying to fill that Gap. Literally.

 

[Musskiah]

"And as per Li Auto’s data, Tesla China saw a total of 5,160 registrations in the week ending April 21, 2024. From this number, 4,610 vehicles were reportedly comprised of the Model Y crossover, while 540 were the upgraded Model 3. These results are quite unsurprising considering that a rather large export fleet of upgraded Model 3 sedans has been spotted at the Shanghai Southport Terminal in recent days. "

Tesla China registrations remain soft at 5,160 units in April's third week

As observed by industry watchers, Tesla China saw 5,160 new vehicle registrations during the week of April 15-21, 2024.

www.google.com