Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ellec]

Food for thought:
-- Sales numbers aren't a perfect indication of demand. If Kia only made, or otherwise was only willing and able to sell 1,281 EV9's, how could we know if potential demand was higher than that?
-- What if the EV9 isn't exactly what people are looking for in a 3-row? Could Tesla do better?
-- Tesla's goal isn't to compete with other EV's, but with all vehicles. We should instead evaluate the market by looking at sales of all the other medium-sized 3-row crossover/SUV's (Honda Pilot/Passport, Toyota Highlander, etc) and the sales numbers for the big 3-row SUVs (Chevy Tahoe/GMC Yukon, Suburban, etc.), and maybe also think about all the vans and minivans on the road too.

With Tesla talking of building variants on their existing lines, I'd love to see not only smaller/cheaper versions (with my usual request for smaller wheels with higher-profile, non-performance tires), but also a bit roomier 3-row Y, and I'd also love to see a 3-row SUV or Van built on the Cybertruck platform. A CyberSUV or CyberVan that shares the entire front end with the existing truck and has modifications for more seating (and, of course, a roof and windows) in the back half would be amazing and seems like a no-brainer. GM/Chevy have been using that model for decades, and Rivian did it with their SUV/Truck....

Admittedly, I'm probably in a relatively small minority with 4 kids and a decent sized dog that goes most of the places we go, so I actually need room for 6+. We use our 7-seat Y for some trips, and we use the minivan when we need to haul more stuff along with us or just want to be a bit more spread out. The X would be hard to justify...but I'm also still hoping that a CyberVan/SUV would (eventually) come in closer to the original Cybertruck announced prices.

They already have the Model X, if they could cut costs on that with a new cheaper version of it (still keep the premium one), give it a solid refresh then probably there simplest way to take on this market.

 

[hobbes]

FWIW EX30 production in Ghent is scheduled for next year. Now it is Chinese only. It seems they're having major success with this. All three Geely's on this platform appear to be headed for success:

Volvo EX30, Zeekr X or Smart #1: which Geely EV should you have? - Techzle

Three times SEA2 The Chinese car giant Geely was already very busy in Europe with Volvo, Polestar and Lynk & Co, among others, but is now going full steam ahead. The Volvo EX30, Zeekr X and Smart #1 share the same platform and all show great promise, but how do the three actually relate? An …

techzle.com

These are each slotted neatly a little below Model Y, but are likely to be non-FSD competitors of the new Teslas. I'll wager they'll all be highly influential, driving the 'EV built on ICE platform' crowd a bit crazy.
They'll not show up in the US soon, but...they're coming and Tesla might beat them to US market.

Yeah that´s the sweet spot Tesla should address with the next generation vehicle IMHO (at least for Europe and other non-US markets). Better sooner than later, don´t give the Chinese too much of a head start for market penetration in this segment.

Looked at a review from ADAC (German AAA) and main points Tesla could easily do better in is software and charging speed.

 

[Doggydogworld]

I am expecting a smaller car. A smaller Model Y like vehicle has been rumored all along. Would make sense to debut it next to Juniper Model Y with the key difference being size. Its what Europe and ASEAN markets have been clamoring for.

I agree. It'll be built in Shanghai, which serves Europe and Asia. Shanghai serves the whole world, for that matter, except the US which doesn't buy small cars anyway..Shanghai has the lowest costs and doesn't need unboxed, so it's the obvious choice for a lower cost vehicle. Shanghai can also move much faster than Berlin or Austin.

You can build different size vehicles on the same line.

Tesla can't even build 3 and Y on the same line! China, Inc. will figure it out, though.

 

[SPadival]

Watch this new YouTube influencer

 

[cliff harris]

I feel like we are about to see another super-climb. Despite the depressed financial climate preventing a lot of people from affording cars, I think TSLA is still going to rise based on the completion of FSD and anticipation of new vehicles.

Agreed 100%. I think the overwhelming majority of wall st have no idea what is coming. FSD progress is nuts, and when it gets to the point where almost everyone has multiple intervention-free drives per week, word of mouth is going to be bananas.
Why would anybody buy any other make of vehicle? They will have less utility, and be way less safe!

Plus, even ignoring FSD we have:
Roadster to come
Semi to come
Mass production of cybertruck to come
Even more megapacks!
Whatever model 2/2.5 turns out to be.
Mexico factory
Tesla bot

I bought some stock at about $160, and was originally planning on selling those few once we are $180ish, but I think it would be nuts to sell anything before the next quarter results, which should be much better. Not selling any meaningful amount until $300. Probably sell half at $400.

 

[kabin]

Form 144 today with Andrew B washing his hands of it. He's exercising his option to sell 1.14M shares. Not bad timing.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Form 144 today with Andrew B washing his hands of it. He's exercising his option to sell 1.14M shares. Not bad timing.

 

[cab]

I am technically in the market for another car. I have been looking at used EVs about 2, possibly 3 years old - almost exclusively NON-Teslas as there are some stellar deals on a number of compelling EVs (the Koreans in particular). However, for the first time ever, I found myself thinking "but if I don't get a Tesla...I won't be able to try FSD.". FSD was so pricey for what it was delivering (pre-V12) that I always dismissed it, but sheesh the videos AND RECENT RAPID PROGRESS are getting really compelling. I usually get performance versions of cars (as a self-described car guy), but actually thought "maybe I should get the base model and just buy FSD outright". Even 4 months ago, I NEVER would have considered that...heck, I was barely interested in Autopilot. Just one data point, but a data point nonetheless.

 

[hobbes]

Just stopped by the service center in Indy. Quite a few Cybertrucks on the lot; I don’t know if they were delivering or holding them for the pedal issue. The highest VIN I saw was over 7800.

The vehicle that you posted the VIN sticker of is from 4/11, the recall was for vehicles built through 4/4 so it should not be waiting.
The recall notice also mentioned 3878 affected vehicles, so your VIN 7864 seems quite high for just a week later! However, as we know that while VINs are mostly sequential, they sometimes skip ranges.

2024 TESLA CYBERTRUCK | NHTSA

www.nhtsa.gov

@Troy

 

[hobbes]

Form 144 today with Andrew B washing his hands of it. He's exercising his option to sell 1.14M shares. Not bad timing.

In case anyone else wondered, that´s Drew Baglino.

Wow, 180M is a nice sum to retire on
Looks like he didn´t watch the Ron Baron interview today though

 

[WattsHappening]

It's great to see the SP up over $30 from earlier in the week. My brokerage balances look much better.

But you know what's the best thing about yesterday and today? Not seeing the trolls/shorts/FUDsters on this forum! (Not that I see their initial posts since I have most of them on ignore, but I also don't see the countless replies/feeding of the trolls). I'm sure they will be back, but it's nice to see them shut up, if just for a couple of days.

 

[mongo]

I agree. It'll be built in Shanghai, which serves Europe and Asia. Shanghai serves the whole world, for that matter, except the US which doesn't buy small cars anyway..Shanghai has the lowest costs and doesn't need unboxed, so it's the obvious choice for a lower cost vehicle. Shanghai can also move much faster than Berlin or Austin.


Tesla can't even build 3 and Y on the same line! China, Inc. will figure it out, though.

Shanghai is likely material flow limited, Austin is not.
X and S use the same GA line. There was no reason to put 3 and Y on the same lines. They had staggered introductions and volumes did not support sharing.
With softer demand and dual Y domestic plants, Austin can take an efficiency hit to phase in the new models.

 

[mongo]

In case anyone else wondered, that´s Drew Baglino.

And you lose unexercised options when you depart the company, so it was now or never.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Form 144 today with Andrew B washing his hands of it. He's exercising his option to sell 1.14M shares. Not bad timing.

He must not believe in FSD and Optimus.

 

[kabin]

And you lose unexercised options when you depart the company, so it was now or never.

I recall Kirkhorn and Baglino both sold stock before announcing their departures. But that was the largest part of their compensation.

 

[RSpanner]

I agree. It'll be built in Shanghai, which serves Europe and Asia. Shanghai serves the whole world, for that matter, except the US which doesn't buy small cars anyway..Shanghai has the lowest costs and doesn't need unboxed, so it's the obvious choice for a lower cost vehicle. Shanghai can also move much faster than Berlin or Austin.


Tesla can't even build 3 and Y on the same line! China, Inc. will figure it out, though.

Sorry, I never drop in here...but what are the thought on the $25K Tesla that was going to be built..all I have heard is that it will not. Any other news about it? thanks..

 

[Musskiah]

He must not believe in FSD and Optimus.

For sure. Why would anyone believe in FSD or Optimus?

 

[Musskiah]

I saw that interview with Ron. I think its safe to say that by "now, now!" he means in the very near future.

RT is revealed on 8/8/24, goes into production late 2025, first road use at small scale likely in early 2026, maybe very late 2025 in very small quantitites.

So "now" is probably a relative term, but its certainly starting up "soon" given FSD v12 progress this past month.

Unless, of course, the Tesla App goes live on 8/8 and FSD is so good by EOY or early 2025, they flip the switch. FSD won't wait for Robotaxis. When the data is irrefutable, it happens "now." #ChatFSDmoment 2024

@DarkandStormy I await your troll snark with bated breath

 

[hobbes]

And you lose unexercised options when you depart the company, so it was now or never.

When I read this correctly he exercised the options, so he now has stock, correct?
If he sold the stock, too, that would be visible elsewhere? Sorry for the basic questions, never did anything with options..

Just want to see if this can be interpreted as a voluntary decision to get out of TSLA now instead of later.

 

[DarkandStormy]

For sure. Why would anyone believe in FSD or Optimus?

Ron Barron just said this is the bottom. Why would Drew sell?