After reflecting on history at the Austin factory there was a time when there were 2 Model Y lines:-
- Model Y 2170 (Still running)
- Model Y 4680 (stopped)
When those 2 Model Y lines were running the process probably looked like this:-
- Body Shop - separate
- Paint - combined
- Marriage - separate
- GA - combined.
IMO this is a likely template for any new models use the old 4680 Model Y line, and the process above.
So the original plan might have looked like:-
- 2 Cybertruck lines - 4680
- 2 Model Y lines - 4680 or 2170
- 1 unboxed Cybercab line - 4680 (new)
- 1 unboxed compact hatch line - new paint shop - 4680/LFP (new)
- 1 unboxed compact van line? - new paint shop - 4680/LFP (new)
And the revised plan might be:-
- 2 Cybertruck lines - 4680
- 1 Model Y line - 4680 or 2170
- 1 unboxed Cybercab line - 4680 (new)
- 1 compact hatch(/van) line - 4680/2170/LFP (in part old Model Y 4680 line)
So overall there are now 5 lines rather than 7, some equipment from the old 4680 Model Y line can be reused, and there is no need to build a new paint shop at this stage.
In the short/medium term the compact hatch is a hedge against the unboxed process for the Robotaxi not working out, or falling behind schedule.
The van is more of an educated hunch, a line is being repurposed to build 2 new vehicles, or the option of a second vehicle is being kept open. So the van might not happen, the hunch is based on multiple vehicles being mentioned.
Where my thinking has changed is the existing 2170 Model Y line may or may not have changes to migrate to 800V/48V. As Lars stated previously, they already have supply chains in place for 12V. Or it may make sense to start cranking out the new vehicles first before refreshing Model Y.
I think Shanghai has 2 Model Y lines, one of them could be repurposed to build the new models, while still retaining the ability to build Model Y if necessary. And / or new body shop and marriage stations can be added.
Berlin might only have one Model Y line, but the overall process is similar to spinning up a new Model Y line.
I think they will leave Fremont largely untouched except for the Model Y refresh.