Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

Does anyone believe anything Reuters publishes anymore?, they've lost all credibility as a news organisation.

The NHSTA investigation is on the NHSTA website, easy to read the source instead of the Reuters spin on it, just search for Tesla and view “investigations” under the model.

(Doesn’t seem that serious?)

Here’s the text:

April 25, 2024 NHTSA ACTION NUMBER: RQ24009OPEN INVESTIGATION
Recall 23V838 Remedy Effectiveness
NHTSA Action Number: RQ24009

Components ELECTRICAL SYSTEM

Opened From: April 25, 2024–Present

Summary

The Office of Defects Investigation (ODI) is opening a Recall Query to assess the remedy adequacy of Recall 23V838. On December 12, 2023, Tesla filed a Defect Information Report (Recall 23V838) applicable to all Tesla models produced and equipped with any version of its Autopilot system, which Tesla described as an SAE Level 2 (L2) Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS). Autopilot is the simultaneous engagement of Tesla’s Traffic-Aware Cruise Control (TACC) and Autosteer. In describing the safety defect, Tesla’s Defect Information Report (DIR) explained that “the prominence and scope of the system’s controls may be insufficient to prevent driver misuse,” and Tesla committed to the deployment of a multipart remedy aimed at improving system and engagement controls and reducing mode confusion.

EA22002 (upgraded from PE21020) was opened to investigate whether Tesla’s Autopilot contained a defect that created an unreasonable risk to motor vehicle safety and involved extensive crash analysis, human factors analysis, vehicle evaluations, and assessment of vehicle control authority and driver engagement technologies. The work conducted in these investigations aligns with Tesla’s conclusion in its 23V838 recall filing. During EA22002, ODI identified at least 13 crashes involving one or more fatalities and many more involving serious injuries in which foreseeable driver misuse of the system played an apparent role.

Tesla filed Recall 23V838 to address concerns regarding the Autopilot system investigated in EA22002. Following deployment of the remedy in Recall 23V838, ODI identified concerns due to post-remedy crash events and results from preliminary NHTSA tests of remedied vehicles. Also, Tesla has stated that a portion of the remedy both requires the owner to opt in and allows a driver to readily reverse it. Tesla has also deployed non-remedy updates to address issues that appear related to ODI’s concerns under EA22002. This investigation will consider why these updates were not a part of the recall or otherwise determined to remedy a defect that poses an unreasonable safety risk.

ODI is therefore opening this Recall Query investigation to further evaluate the adequacy of the remedy for recall 23V838

 

[Ellec]

The NHSTA investigation is on the NHSTA website, easy to read the source instead of the Reuters spin on it, just search for Tesla and view “investigations” under the model.

Here’s the text:

April 25, 2024 NHTSA ACTION NUMBER: RQ24009OPEN INVESTIGATION
Recall 23V838 Remedy Effectiveness
NHTSA Action Number: RQ24009

Components ELECTRICAL SYSTEM

Opened From: April 25, 2024–Present

Summary

The Office of Defects Investigation (ODI) is opening a Recall Query to assess the remedy adequacy of Recall 23V838. On December 12, 2023, Tesla filed a Defect Information Report (Recall 23V838) applicable to all Tesla models produced and equipped with any version of its Autopilot system, which Tesla described as an SAE Level 2 (L2) Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS). Autopilot is the simultaneous engagement of Tesla’s Traffic-Aware Cruise Control (TACC) and Autosteer. In describing the safety defect, Tesla’s Defect Information Report (DIR) explained that “the prominence and scope of the system’s controls may be insufficient to prevent driver misuse,” and Tesla committed to the deployment of a multipart remedy aimed at improving system and engagement controls and reducing mode confusion.

EA22002 (upgraded from PE21020) was opened to investigate whether Tesla’s Autopilot contained a defect that created an unreasonable risk to motor vehicle safety and involved extensive crash analysis, human factors analysis, vehicle evaluations, and assessment of vehicle control authority and driver engagement technologies. The work conducted in these investigations aligns with Tesla’s conclusion in its 23V838 recall filing. During EA22002, ODI identified at least 13 crashes involving one or more fatalities and many more involving serious injuries in which foreseeable driver misuse of the system played an apparent role.



Tesla filed Recall 23V838 to address concerns regarding the Autopilot system investigated in EA22002. Following deployment of the remedy in Recall 23V838, ODI identified concerns due to post-remedy crash events and results from preliminary NHTSA tests of remedied vehicles. Also, Tesla has stated that a portion of the remedy both requires the owner to opt in and allows a driver to readily reverse it. Tesla has also deployed non-remedy updates to address issues that appear related to ODI’s concerns under EA22002. This investigation will consider why these updates were not a part of the recall or otherwise determined to remedy a defect that poses an unreasonable safety risk.

ODI is therefore opening this Recall Query investigation to further evaluate the adequacy of the remedy for recall 23V838

Not sure why Reuters has this as their top story. Im sure recall queries happen regularly to all auto makers. I guess having Tesla in the headline generates a lot more clicks.

 

[Huskyf]

The NHSTA investigation is on the NHSTA website, easy to read the source instead of the Reuters spin on it, just search for Tesla and view “investigations” under the model.

(Doesn’t seem that serious?)

Here’s the text:

April 25, 2024 NHTSA ACTION NUMBER: RQ24009OPEN INVESTIGATION
Recall 23V838 Remedy Effectiveness
NHTSA Action Number: RQ24009

Components ELECTRICAL SYSTEM

Opened From: April 25, 2024–Present

Summary

The Office of Defects Investigation (ODI) is opening a Recall Query to assess the remedy adequacy of Recall 23V838. On December 12, 2023, Tesla filed a Defect Information Report (Recall 23V838) applicable to all Tesla models produced and equipped with any version of its Autopilot system, which Tesla described as an SAE Level 2 (L2) Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS). Autopilot is the simultaneous engagement of Tesla’s Traffic-Aware Cruise Control (TACC) and Autosteer. In describing the safety defect, Tesla’s Defect Information Report (DIR) explained that “the prominence and scope of the system’s controls may be insufficient to prevent driver misuse,” and Tesla committed to the deployment of a multipart remedy aimed at improving system and engagement controls and reducing mode confusion.

EA22002 (upgraded from PE21020) was opened to investigate whether Tesla’s Autopilot contained a defect that created an unreasonable risk to motor vehicle safety and involved extensive crash analysis, human factors analysis, vehicle evaluations, and assessment of vehicle control authority and driver engagement technologies. The work conducted in these investigations aligns with Tesla’s conclusion in its 23V838 recall filing. During EA22002, ODI identified at least 13 crashes involving one or more fatalities and many more involving serious injuries in which foreseeable driver misuse of the system played an apparent role.

Tesla filed Recall 23V838 to address concerns regarding the Autopilot system investigated in EA22002. Following deployment of the remedy in Recall 23V838, ODI identified concerns due to post-remedy crash events and results from preliminary NHTSA tests of remedied vehicles. Also, Tesla has stated that a portion of the remedy both requires the owner to opt in and allows a driver to readily reverse it. Tesla has also deployed non-remedy updates to address issues that appear related to ODI’s concerns under EA22002. This investigation will consider why these updates were not a part of the recall or otherwise determined to remedy a defect that poses an unreasonable safety risk.

ODI is therefore opening this Recall Query investigation to further evaluate the adequacy of the remedy for recall 23V838

and now we are down in red -1.12 (-0.66%) and that stay like that to when this ntsha action is terminated that can take a couple of months like the fiorst time remember what happened when the first recall is annonced not great blue sky in view,,,

 

[Ellec]

and now we are down in red -1.12 (-0.66%) and that stay like that to when this ntsha action is terminated that can take a couple of months like the fiorst time remember what happened when the first recall is annonced not great blue sky in view,,,

It's not a recall it's a query, im guessing it will end with, "all good now". Im sure you are right though it will stay red for months as not other news will come out and no one will buy or sell any shares in Tesla in the interim, may as well close the forum for a few months as well.

 

[2daMoon]

Was watching SMRs video today where he compares Ark Invest's total TSLA holdings across their funds with Ross G (GK) and Gary B (FFND) funds' holdings and it was an eye-opener. Ark is orders of magnitude greater than either of them.

Both Ross and Gary appear to have their purchase timing backwards compared to ARK at the beginning and end of this period.

Then, SMR adds his holdings to the chart and, for context, the TSLA shares for this "YouTube Influencer" are currently triple what Ross Gerber, and quadruple what Gary Black have ever held in their funds since October 2022.

Left edge is scaled for Ross, Gary, and SMR share counts. The right edge is Ark's share count. The perspective shown here is priceless.

 

[unk45]

Yeah that´s the sweet spot Tesla should address with the next generation vehicle IMHO (at least for Europe and other non-US markets). Better sooner than later, don´t give the Chinese too much of a head start for market penetration in this segment.

Looked at a review from ADAC (German AAA) and main points Tesla could easily do better in is software and charging speed.

Considering everything, I think FSD, even without L3 or more, is a major advantage today, as well as charging speed, native Supercharging and all aspects of software. factually I do not know EX30 or others directly, although i do know previous Volvo solutions very well. The advantage of Tesla vs those is formidable. FWIW, I suspect many or even most competitor prospects would end out favoring a Tesla solutions. Tesla does need to move very quickly outside the NA markets. Those are evolving quickly.

 

[Artful Dodger]

and now we are down in red -1.12 (-0.66%) and that stay like that to when this ntsha action is terminated that can take a couple of months like the fiorst time remember what happened when the first recall is annonced not great blue sky in view,,,

This is why dead investors outperform live investors: because dead investors don't read Reuters headlines until after the market closes.

 

[Ellec]

Considering everything, I think FSD, even without L3 or more, is a major advantage today, as well as charging speed, native Supercharging and all aspects of software. factually I do not know EX30 or others directly, although i do know previous Volvo solutions very well. The advantage of Tesla vs those is formidable. FWIW, I suspect many or even most competitor prospects would end out favoring a Tesla solutions. Tesla does need to move very quickly outside the NA markets. Those are evolving quickly.

The Kia EV9, I guess they skimped on a design team, not my cup of tea, looks like a box, plus it's a Kia. Regardless without FSD these will all end up becoming spare battery supplies for FSD enabled vehicles.

 

[scaesare]

They let anybody on CNBC now.

Right?

I much prefer the sophisticated analysts like Toilet Boy Mark Spiegel or Gordon Johnson!

 

[Knightshade]

FSD saves the Day: Be careful out there folks! (Note that automatic emergency braking EAB is now built into FSD, they are no longer separate since about v12.3.3)

Can you clarify what you mean here? AEB is standard on every Tesla regardless of having FSD or not and has been for a long time. I'm unaware of that changing in 12.3.3 but would be interested to read more if you have other info.

"Fact is, the Stock Options held by executives have to be disposed of with 90 days of leaving the company, or they expire worthless. It is absolutely normal and expected that once an executive retires, they immediately seek to dispose of their stock.

TBC- this means he must EXERCISE the option within 90 days. He's under no obligation at all to sell any shares (though he might sell some minority of them to pay taxes on the exercise).


I don't at all begrudge him selling them all if he wishes to just retire to a scrooge mcduck vault- but you're conflating a need to exercise with a need to sell the shares.


Selling 100% of the shares that's a choice, not a requirement of the grant.

Capital Gains tax increase is in the works.

It's really not... "random tax increases in a proposed budget that never has a chance to pass" isn't really in-the-works.... it's election-year copy-paste.

I'm sorry, are we considering a guy with a fledgling t-shirt company and no corporate finance experience a source now?

I mean, he's got a much better track record than Gordon Johnson.

 

[DarkandStormy]

What about the other 100+ execs who are happy to remain invested? No one knows the real reason he sold (tax, resentment over being let go, starting his own company, wants to be rich, thinks Tesla is going to fail etc) and it doesn't matter to the company in the slightest. We had this kind of FUD when Model 3 was ramping, when a few execs left, think Chanos was tweeting about it endlessly, It didn't work out well for him, he shorted his whole fund into oblivion.

So, I mean, if somebody doesn't believe Tesla is going to solve autonomy, I think they should not be an investor in the company. - Elon Musk

 

[MP3Mike]

As far as the recall investigation, the NHTSA said this:

Also, Tesla has stated that a portion of the remedy both requires the owner to opt in and allows a driver to readily reverse it.

Does anybody know what part of the recall update you have to opt in to, and can readily reverse? Are they talking about FSD? Where you have to turn it on, and you can decide to switch back to standard AP?

 

[DarkandStormy]

Right?

I much prefer the sophisticated analysts like Toilet Boy Mark Spiegel or Gordon Johnson!

Those guys should not be platformed, but all due respect to Sawyer and his clothing brand, but what are his credentials for being on CNBC? That he tweets out a lot of Tesla info? Does he have a background in finance or anything that would qualify him as more of an expert than 75% of people on this forum?

@Artful Dodger deserves a CNBC spot more than Sawyer!

 

[sunwarriors]

Can you clarify what you mean here? AEB is standard on every Tesla regardless of having FSD or not and has been for a long time. I'm unaware of that changing in 12.3.3 but would be interested to read more if you have other info.






TBC- this means he must EXERCISE the option within 90 days. He's under no obligation at all to sell any shares (though he might sell some minority of them to pay taxes on the exercise).


I don't at all begrudge him selling them all if he wishes to just retire to a scrooge mcduck vault- but you're conflating a need to exercise with a need to sell the shares.


Selling 100% of the shares that's a choice, not a requirement of the grant.



It's really not... "random tax increases in a proposed budget that never has a chance to pass" isn't really in-the-works.... it's election-year copy-paste.




I mean, he's got a much better track record than Gordon Johnson.

Is it clear from reports whether he actually sold everything or just exercised options that were going to expire (or sold a good chunk for $$/tax reasons)? Even leaving companies, one can always exercise or sell some and hold the rest of the stock since you're the owner now and it's not an RSU or option.

 

[Knightshade]

@DarkandStormy

Do you think that's a reason someone might cease being an investor.... or do you think that's the only reason?

I ask because you seem to be trying to argue the second, but that makes no actual sense as an argument.

As far as the recall investigation, the NHTSA said this:

Does anybody know what part of the recall update you have to opt in to, and can readily reverse? Are they talking about FSD? Where you have to turn it on, and you can decide to switch back to standard AP?

You have to opt in to allow the cabin camera to monitor you and can reverse the opt-in at any time. AFAIK standard AP still works without it.

(of course even FSD works on pre-camera S/X cars so there's that...)

 

[wtlloyd]

He'd only need to sell 20-30% to cover his taxes. Instead he sold nearly everything.

He was a high level exec with access to all info on 4680, FSD, Optimus, etc. and he wanted to exit asap. Hmmm.

"It was a little-known life long ambition of his to fill a vault with cash and body surf the resultant mounds, exactly as his childhood idol, Scrooge McDuck had done."

I believe my version more likely.

 

[Knightshade]

"It was a little-known life long ambition of his to fill a vault with cash and body surf the resultant mounds, exactly as his childhood idol, Scrooge McDuck had done."

I believe my version more likely.

The family name was McBagliano but was changed at Ellis Island....

 

[SOULPEDL]

As far as the recall investigation, the NHTSA said this:

Does anybody know what part of the recall update you have to opt in to, and can readily reverse? Are they talking about FSD? Where you have to turn it on, and you can decide to switch back to standard AP?

That's how I took it to mean. I'd imagine with single press FSD, someone could engage and the car just takes off to their surprise.
But I came up with a good way to disengage. Just say "Holy Sh*t!!!" and it will stop.

 

[GrandEnigma]

Question I cannot find an answer to online and my CPA friends seem to think it's worth a go. If I use my Cybertruck Powershare feature to provide battery backup for my house, does it qualify for the Residential Energy Credit on form 5695?

The instructions for line 5a have no language aside from the minimal energy capacity

"Qualified battery storage technology costs. Qualified battery storage technology costs are costs for battery storage technology that is installed in connection with your home located in the United States and has a capacity of at least 3 kilowatt hours."

If so, this really changes the value prop of PowerShare on vehicles.

Even digging through Ford forums for this V2H feature are people just saying Yes or No with no backup or reasoning.

 

[scaesare]

That's false. Just one example, simply search "CATL 4680 Qilin" and you will see they have been mass producing the form factor in meaningful quantities since last year. One of many links you will find in this regard... CATL begins mass production of its Qilin batteries with 13% more power than other 4680 cells

However, it seems Tesla is about to undercut the 4680 competition, just when everyone was trash talking the 4680 program... Tesla expects its 4680 battery cells to be cheaper than suppliers by end of year

So, given that 4680 is just a form-factor, and the real special sauce are the internals (tabless design, endcap changes, fractured silicon anode, etc...) along with the DBE manufacturing process, are any other manufacturers incorporating these?

It would seem there may be some intellectual property issues there...