Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Blue horseshoe]

Ask and ye shall receive:

Re-instituting two long-neglected, but never repealed, policies:

• Participants who state that they have placed others on Ignore;
• Participants who campaign in any fashion for others to place others on Ignore;
• Participants who state indirect “I’ve Ignored” comments like “Gee, a lot of posts here responding to something I’ve not read”;
• Participants who, in the opinion of a Moderator, have their knees and thumbs linked: their knee-jerk response to another poster’s post is to ThumbsDown it;
• Participants who persistently ignore Moderator dicta regarding personal attacks;

Are subject to a No-Further-Warning ban of indeterminate length. Violators of the final two bullet points will find that a longer length.

ALL OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED ACTS are inimical to adult discussion. For the past dozen years I have made no bones about my distaste for the ThumbsDown symbol: if you disagree with a post; if you dislike a portion if another’s argument, then by God then bring it up in conversation and discuss what it is that you consider wrong.

Or go away.

Pushing people away who have been here for a long time and want thoughtful discussion rather than argue with people who are not interested in any discussion is a strange way to run this forum.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

So, not important in the scheme of anything.

Valid to a certain extent. I could come up with dozens of reasons why it probably isn’t an issue. Can you come up with, say, three reasons from the other side? It’s an exercise in looking for a path forward that you may have overlooked by defaulting to the ‘this is bad’.

As indicated. I’m curious. Not important in the big scheme of things. Is curiosity allowed on this board? .

Still, no one seems to know, which is weird. I mistakenly thought they were employed out of buffalo. People seem to think that’s not the case but don’t know where this 500 person team was employed, or even if they were all employed in one location. Kinda makes me wonder where the 500 number came from.

Even Kyle from out of spec review couldn’t pin down where the team worked. Lots of mystery surrounding this issue. Weird.

 

[SOULPEDL]

You are a fount of useful information! This dichotomy neatly explains regional differences in EV penetration in many countries, including each of Tesla's major sources of sales. Belgium, by it's nearly unique structure, makes less obvious locations much easier to see.

I'm gonna second that! @NicoV is like my ground truth in some little Belgium town in Europe (that for some strange reason, speaks French).
Great no-spin insights too... for a programmer

 

[MP3Mike]

Are you sure that CCS uses the same communications protocol as Tesla Supercharger (NACS)? My friend's September 2019 Model 3 cannot use CCS without having an adapter board installed.

CCS Adapter NOT enabled

I found a website based in Korea Who basically offers to buy the CCS adapter and ship it to you here in America. I’ve considered buying one myself, but when I started doing some research I noticed that my car says that it is not supported. Does anyone know if this is something that is changed...

teslamotorsclub.com

Yes. Tesla Superchargers that support NACS speak CSS, but all Superchargers speak a proprietary Tesla protocol for older non-NACS/CCS enabled Teslas.

Tesla has updated the wording in the additional information screen to "CCS and third-party NACS charging support". Because those older vehicles can't charge at non-Tesla NACS chargers without supporting CCS. (But Tesla NACS Superchargers support the old proprietary Tesla protocol in addition to the CCS protocol.)

To be totally clear: At this time Tesla V2 Superchargers are not NACS compatible/compliant.

 

[2daMoon]

Pushing people away who have been here for a long time and want thoughtful discussion rather than argue with people who are not interested in any discussion is a strange way to run this forum.

It read to me that they want us to behave like grown-ups, regardless of length of participation.

Ignore button is a useful tool, but talking about it isn't.

"Disagree" is something that better serves the forum when written out, rather than merely selecting it from a menu.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla has received permission to trade emission credits in South Korea. Yet again, the temporary income is extended..

PS Tesla has secured about $145 million USD worth of carbon credits for this year in South Korea' emissions trading scheme.

PPS that's about 4.5 cents per share toward 2024 EPS.

 

[AudubonB]

Pushing people away who have been here for a long time and want thoughtful discussion rather than argue with people who are not interested in any discussion is a strange way to run this forum.

That would indeed be strange.

People who want thoughtful discussion DISCUSS; they don’t BlackThumb and run away.

 

[2daMoon]

PS Tesla has secured about $145 million USD worth of carbon credits for this year in South Korea' emissions trading scheme.

PPS that's about 4.5 cents per share toward 2024 EPS.

This is a nod toward further building Tesla rapport with S. Korea.

Which rapport may extend to an FSD license deal with a S. Korea auto OEM who exports their cars worldwide.

 

[sunwarriors]

There is a problem with your logic. You say everyone is gone. Then who exactly backed out of the leases?

I'm only going by what was stated in the video and per my disclaimer, you can take it for what it's worth. Kyle specifically stated the contractor he knows personally can't reach a single contact that he was working with.

Kyle, from my read is generally not anti-Tesla nor tries to get into any company/Elon/people/investment/financial type discussions (he tries hard to avoid it really if you've seen any Out of Spec or Batteries Included videos) .

No need to shoot me for sharing info for someone who asked. As I've stated before, not all of us are here to troll folks, didn't create our account recently, nor have any financial interest in seeing the stock fall or rise. If Tesla goes to $4000, it has 0 effect on me and neither if it goes to $50.

This is the problem with this forum I feel. I'm still here because I genuinely find the discussions interesting enough.

 

[Doggydogworld]

If I want to hear the bear thesis, I can find it practically everywhere else. Almost every media article, most X posts, most interviews on MSM and many other threads on this forum. Would be nice to have one thread that is full of bear spray.

It’s good to understand the full picture but I find many of the bear arguments to be short term noise and completely worthless to LONG TERM INVESTORS. Ie decade plus.

May I suggest the Super Bulls Only Thread?

Also, the second statement is also incorrect as Elon clarified in the recent CC - Tesla has existing capacity that can be boasted up to 3 million EVs, maintaining the 50% growth run rate.

50%??? Tesla dropped the 50% language for a reason. This year looks slightly down followed by two years of maybe 10-20%. That's not a bear thesis (I just got called a KoolAid drinker on Reddit, fwiw). It's a neutral interpretation of Tesla's recent ER outlook changes, the uncharacteristic corpspeak in Q1 and well-sourced external reports.

i.e. in the interim, they will use the existing assembly lines & some next gen processes for the new vehicles (note plural)

They said aspects of the next generation platform. Not "next gen processes".

 

[DarkandStormy]

I am seeing unconfirmed reports of Tesla cancelling solar projects en masse, and perhaps exiting markets entirely with referrals to certified installers in the area. This is likely related to the recent layoffs.

Something to keep an eye on, imo. Of course, Tesla stopped publishing the # of solar installs in their reporting, so not exactly the most transparent there. Perhaps if enough people with deposits down getting their projects cancelled speak up we will get a better picture of where teams are being removed and how many.

 

[insaneoctane]

Negative FCF was the exception, it's not the rule.
-$2.5B due to inventory in transit (which will be sold in early Q2)
-1B to AI

Is $2.5B in transit factual? How much inventory is transit is typical?

 

[advocate8]

This supports my theory that Tesla has realized how we are at the point where others will step in and build charging infrastructure.

Looks like Elon got it right, again!

I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla provides the equipment for a lot of these installations, and avoids the more time consuming aspects of arranging for the individual sites.

Right. It's genius! And when others achieve volume production of EVs then Tesla can just step aside and let them build all the EVs. Maybe that's what is going on with the model 2, he is just going to let BYD take over the burden of making EVs. /s

 

[mongo]

People who want thoughtful discussion DISCUSS; they don’t BlackThumb and run away.

Sometime a post is blatantly objectively factually inaccurate.
And sometimes the post has been debunked before one gets to it.
In those situations, it a thumbs down on the former and a thumbs up on the latter not the most effective course of action?

 

[Knightshade]

Yes. Because we have bigger fish to fry. How cute of you to have forgotten that;

Is there some concern in Teslas financials that makes you think they're incapable of containing to expand their profitable charging network or are you just defending whatever Elon does as correct because Elon did it?

A) Tesla never set out to do it all themselves

But nobody else would.

In large part nobody else still is

The nextr "big" charging network- EA- only exists because VW cheated on emissions for years and was forced into it by a court.

It continues to suck as an alternative and there's no indication of that changing- same for all the other smaller players who have janky and unreliable charging.

The move of all the OEMs to Tesla was because Tesla is the only affordable and reliable national charging network.

Why hit the brakes on that now? Especially when you've already gotten all the early adopters and need to get the MOST range anxious, and those without home charging, onto the "EVs are fine" train.... plus it's a profitable line of business so it's only ADDING to revenue.

B) Money is a means to an end, not the goal

The goal is to accelerate the worlds transition to sustainable transport.

A larger and more reliable charging network is fundamental to that goal

Since when did "Eh, let someone else figure it out" become the mission statement?

C) Much, much bigger sources of revenue are about to come into play

We've been hearing the YUGE FSD MONEY story for 5 years now since the original autonomy day.

Still ain't here-- and there's plenty of financial models showing even if Tesla got L4 on the road this year (which continues to look incredibly unlikely) it'll be years still before revenue streams are actually that big (and potentially not near as big as the folks who think everyone will just stop owning cars)


NONE of that is a reason to abandon a different revenue stream that's already going and remaining profitable as it grows.


You can't even make the excuse of "It was taking up people better used elsewhere in the company" since they didn't move them- they just fired them.

Not Tesla’s problem. Not Tesla’s job to hold everyone else’s hands. And ultimately, when others can’t or won’t do, it makes Tesla’s products continue to stand out and be more desirable.

Pedantic away.

Not pedantic, basic facts and logic.

Heck you contradict yourself right there--- seemingly acknowledging Teslas solution is WAY better than anyone elses-- then saying let the others- who you just told us suck- do it.

How does a move that cedes future growth of new charging locations- vital to increasing EV adoption rates- to inferior solutions that anger customers help the mission rather than hurt it?

 

[SOULPEDL]

 

[2daMoon]

How much inventory is transit is typical?

This question could better be phrased,

How much inventory in transit, plus that which is sold and waiting for customer delivery is typical?​

Whatever remains after that is what can be measured as inventory actually sitting in showrooms, being used for demonstrators, or sitting unsold somewhere.

I expect this actual inventory number is a quite small percentage of the figure provided in the report. I won't go into how Tesla's inventory numbers differ from other OEM's numbers.

 

[Ellec]

Ask and ye shall receive:

Re-instituting two long-neglected, but never repealed, policies:

• Participants who state that they have placed others on Ignore;
• Participants who campaign in any fashion for others to place others on Ignore;
• Participants who state indirect “I’ve Ignored” comments like “Gee, a lot of posts here responding to something I’ve not read”;
• Participants who, in the opinion of a Moderator, have their knees and thumbs linked: their knee-jerk response to another poster’s post is to ThumbsDown it;
• Participants who persistently ignore Moderator dicta regarding personal attacks;

Are subject to a No-Further-Warning ban of indeterminate length. Violators of the final two bullet points will find that a longer length.

ALL OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED ACTS are inimical to adult discussion. For the past dozen years I have made no bones about my distaste for the ThumbsDown symbol: if you disagree with a post; if you dislike a portion if another’s argument, then by God then bring it up in conversation and discuss what it is that you consider wrong.

Or go away.

No mention of users who continually post only negative posts. Who decides who the mods are? Could we put a vote to the users of the forum which mods we find useful or not?

 

[EVMeister]

View attachment 1043739

Did you block everyone?

 

[uscbucsfan]

No mention of users who continually post only negative posts. Who decides who the mods are? Could we put a vote to the users of the forum which mods we find useful or not?

I don't think the moderation intends to promote an echo chamber. Yes, there is 1 particular troll who only posts negative, but some of the "negativity" is just rational discussion that deviates from super bulls' perspective.