I think 8 million is pie in the sky. Maybe 3 or 4 million. And that’s only if they expand quickly into untapped markets like South America.
The ticket will be finding markets where they don’t associate Tesla with Elon. That’s just the way it is now. At some point even tesla will have to recognize that.
I think tesla could still be a good and profitable company at those levels. Just not the industry behemoth everyone thought it would be.
Jmho.
I believe Tesla will be way above 4 million autos produced per year by 2030. They are just below 2 mil now, once interest rates drop Tesla can ramp the lines back up and hit 2 - 2.5 mil easily. Add 250K CT's per year, 50K Semis, 1 or 2 million of whatever the economy 3/Y's might be, and then 3-4 million RT's per year (with Giga Mexico and at least one more Giga by then) by 2030 and you're at 8 mil run rate. Maybe throw in 10K Roadsters per year if it ever actually gets made.
I feel 8 mil/yr by 2030 is a conservative yet realistic number. I think the only way it gets higher than 8 mil is if Tesla ramps RT production super aggressively, which is a possibility IMHO.
Plus the actual Model 2, the compact consumer unboxed Tesla, might still get made down the road.