Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

Agree. a semi truck FSD will require a significantly different training dataset than passenger vehicles. Tesla won't be able to start gathering a lot of this useful data until the semi fleet gets quite a bit larger.

At least that user group does rack up the daily miles more quickly than passenger cars do.

Still, it might take a while for the corner cases, like backing the trailer, accounting for a variety of trailer wheelbases for turning at intersections, navigating a truck stop parking lot, weigh stations, truck specific signage (routes, lane exclusions), etc.

The Jake brake on a Tesla should be very quiet, so those signs can be ignored.

 

[growler23]

Other 50 Semis to Pepsi is bullish, we have now 1.5 years of testing. They can't come soon enough.

Yes. I'm about halfway through Dan Priestley's presentation - he indicates that Tesla was doing what we thought these last few years: learning from the millions of miles of experience to design what he calls their "high volume" semi. Perhaps we can consider the current Semi the "Model S", and the high volume one will be like the "Model Y" of trucking. May it achieve the same success!
He also talks a lot about how it is not just hardware design, but the vertical integration of all their systems that has allowed them to get cost and kWh/mile down. Some good graphs of vehicle weight vs. kWh/mile.
FWIW I don't have the link right now, but I read an article about how in Texas on our lovely new highway SH-130 (which ironically goes right by GigaTexas, and is getting a Boring tunnel under it as we speak), there is a company running a pilot of autonomous highway trucks. ICE for sure, but the highway autonomous tech is, and has been, developing over years. I would say that one can assume that technically, Highway is far easier than City Streets, but I have a feeling that the highway autonomous driving development is about to accelerate ... to Tesla speed.

 

[MP3Mike]

I hope this is just the start, 50k/yr globally seems cautious.

From what I have seen there are only around 200k Semis sold in the US each year, so Tesla making 50k would be ~25% market share in the US. (Or ~20% if Tesla only adds to the market.)

I wouldn't be surprised if they setup another Tesla Semi line at GigaBerlin, but it might not be for the same version. (Since there are length limits that are different in Europe, which is why they have mostly cab-over, flat nose, designs, though I think recently there are some exceptions for electric Semis.)

 

[UkNorthampton]

From what I have seen there are only around 200k Semis sold in the US each year, so Tesla making 50k would be ~25% market share in the US. (Or ~20% if Tesla only adds to the market.)

I wouldn't be surprised if they setup another Tesla Semi line at GigaBerlin, but it might not be for the same version. (Since there are length limits that are different in Europe, which is why they have mostly cab-over, flat nose, designs, though I think recently there are some exceptions for electric Semis.)

If EV operating costs are much better than ICE, economics might lead to a faster replacement rate than current/historic - values of older diesels fall.

 

[MP3Mike]

If EV operating costs are much better than ICE, economics might lead to a faster replacement rate than current/historic - values of older diesels fall.

Possible. But really the limiting factor is likely to be two-fold:

• Production constraints: Tesla is only planning for ~50k/year right now.
• Charging infrastructure: In the ACT presentation that Dan Priestley did he said anyone wanting to go to electric Semis should contact Tesla and start installing the charging infrastructure now, because it often takes up to 3 years for the utility to get everything going.
  • He, also, commented that installing the Tesla Megachargers costs about $500/kW, while most competitors are at about $1,000/kW. (So, a 4 750kW stall site, like Pepsi has, costs about $1.5M to install.)

That likely means that once Tesla starts volume production of the Semi they will prioritize customers that are committed and have already installed charging infrastructure.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

For awhile there was a drone guy that would regularly fly over the Texas factory and get a feel for daily cyber truck production. I haven’t seen anything for awhile from him. Anyone seen anything on this front?

 

[Zero CO2]

if

I already explained this to you

I'll add disingenous forgetfulness to your list of wonderful traits.

If we all stop responding and put D&S on ignore .. this dark storm can end

 

[M|S|M MYP]

No one say ANYTHING!

 

[Musskiah]

@DarkandStormy awaiting your comment on this...

Crickets

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Found out why $TSLA is up today:

 

[unk45]

...

The Jake brake on a Tesla should be very quiet, so those signs can be ignored.

Since regeneration is a net increase in 'fuel', plus can stop the truck...it really isn't analogous to a Jake brake, whether from Jacbs or not. OTOH, your comment is really funny!

 

[Xd85]

Ad campaign in full force

 

[SOULPEDL]

No one say ANYTHING!

I swear I saw it coming (I have real AI). Tried to buy more yesterday at 172.5 but missed it by that much!
Max Pain was not going to let this Tuesday go to waste. Monday's can be very telling for the week. So can the sentiment here.

 

[Usain]

For awhile there was a drone guy that would regularly fly over the Texas factory and get a feel for daily cyber truck production. I haven’t seen anything for awhile from him. Anyone seen anything on this front?

Still flying...

 

[Matias]

I mean, are we at the point where we have to explain what the word "starts" means?

If productions started 2019, I think it would be good to explain what it meant. Apparently less than one Semi/month?

 

[Musskiah]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1792800538863735046

 

[Musskiah]

"Tesla's semi trucks have achieved an uptime of greater than 95%, including preventive and unscheduled maintenance." This is the key factor that will drive Tesla Semi adoption. Of all of it's many advantages (safety, acceleration, maneuverability, etc): industry-leading uptime translates into higher margins. It is a moat that ICE semis will never step to. The second most significant factor is fuel savings - can't compete against saving dollhairs.

 

[scaesare]

If productions started 2019, I think it would be good to explain what it meant. Apparently less than one Semi/month?

Meaning of started in English​

started

past simple and past participle of start

start
verb

US
/stɑːrt/

start verb (BEGIN)​

A1 [ I or T ]
to begin doing something




You may want to look up "ramp".

 

[scaesare]

Since regeneration is a net increase and fuel, plus can stop the truck...it really isn't analogous to a Jake brake, whether from Jacbs or not. OTOH, your comment is really funny!

Not to mention installing/repairing it can be done via remote firmware update.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Meaning of started in English​

started

past simple and past participle of start

start
verb

US
/stɑːrt/

start verb (BEGIN)​

A1 [ I or T ]
to begin doing something




You may want to look up "ramp".

Im guessing that poster (whom i have ignored for a while now) does not recognize English as his first language, hence the confusion.