Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Drax7]

2017: if you order now you get the truck in two years.

2017: I mean timing wise I am guessing that we will probably reach scale production on the semi in about 2 years, maybe 18 months, but probably about 2 years.

2019: semi next year

2020: It’s time to go all out and bring the Tesla Semi to volume production

2022: Tesla 500 mile range Semi Truck starts shipping this year

2022: we're tentatively aiming for 50,000 units in 2024 for Tesla Semi in North America

2022: We will, however, do a lot of engineering and tooling, whatnot to create those vehicles: Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster, Optimus, and be ready to bring those to production hopefully next year

Not sure why anyone is taking the 2026 timeline seriously given all the above statements. I copy/pasted so as not to spam this comment full of tweets.

Priorities change, it’s a dynamic situation, you have to trust
Management’s Judgement in navigating a complex environment.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

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<Giant images>>

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My eyes. The images are too large.

 

[unk45]

My numbers were very old like from 2010. I had trouble finding more up to date numbers.

However I did find this which gives credibility to the 64% you are talking about.

2022 China Dealer Financing Satisfaction (DFS) Study

Automotive financing plays an critical role in driving the growth of the passenger vehicle market in China, with 62% of new-vehicle and 54% of used-vehicle transactions financed in 2021, according to the J.D. Power 2022 China Dealer Financing Satisfaction (DFS) Study released today.

china.jdpower.com

Survey based dat such as JD Power does provide useful information but is misleading because of respondent selection bias. My data is not current, but the last data I had showed that vehicle sales were highly dependent on market segment. Within those segments in most major countries business use and or 'company cars' were nearly all leased. High end non-business use was majority cash sales ('high end' a gross generalization of course) and low to mid level nearly all leased or financed through loans.

In many rapidly developing markets, including China and several other countries, nearly all sales were cash or privately arranged loans that appeared as cash ( example: Chinese 'name associations' have been major unrecorded lending sources in much of Asia, less so today). Because of those factors, among others , official numbers often are misleading.

Since Tesla represents a major departure in many respects, purchasing behavior is not necessarily replicating traditional norms. Even the actual purchasing patterns are different.
The Tesla story is still different even though in-store inventories are now normal.

In any country or market Tesla is different. Personally, I would suggest avoiding generalizing about other OEM's, if only because Tesla purchasers demographics and psychographics are not typical. Maybe by 2030 or so they will be, but not now.

 

[GhostSkater]

The stuff that matters

View this content on Instagram

View this content on Instagram

 

[AnbaricBike]

Love it. The future should look like the future, and this thing looks badass.

The more electric semis being built, the faster the ev transition.

It's diesel.

 

[2daMoon]

Dillon Loomis daily video contains a bit of a deep dive into the SOC group and who are behind them. (Pension Funds and Unions among others)

A nice recap of current and future Semi information as well.

Always a good source of the latest Tesla and EV updates, enjoy.

 

[lukex4]

For my fellows Canadians: I've successfully voted my TSLA CDR (Canadian depositary receipts) through CIBC here: Canadian Depositary Receipts(CDRs)

I followed Alexandra Merz/@TeslaBoomerMama's instructions

https://twitter.com/x/status/1792301825212964968

You'll have to submit some account statement:

I wasn't even aware I could vote those shares, never did in the past!

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

So we had a big jump in $TSLA yesterday without any clear explanation. There was some positive news, but I've seen plenty of down days on news like we had.

So why the jump?

I thought of a possible explanation that went under the radar. Besides some new semi info and decent China numbers, the other thing that happened in the last couple of days is that FSD 12.4 went out to employees. Employees can buy stock. Employees can show their friends who buy stock. If the right person/people are impressed enough, they might decide to buy stock on the strength of 12.4.

Maybe FSD 12.4 is just that good.

Employees have nowhere near the volume needed to move the market of such a highly liquid stock.

 

[sunwarriors]

Thats where you are wrong. "Full time" is a perception for CEOs and that perception is earned through your actions and results. An employee is technically full time when he works at least 40 hours a week. They can have multiple jobs and be full time at each one of them. Theres a baseline for a "full time" CEO and that does not include spending every waking moment at the company. It does, however, include basic stuff like being on top of all executive decisions, acting in the best interest of the company and its shareholders, achieving good results, etc. Elon can be a full time CEO at every single on of his companies if people think hes done the best job that can be asked of anyone in his position. Apparently these people dont think Elon is getting things done at Tesla.

They are not complaining Elon is spending time at his other companies. Their complaint is Tesla suffers because hes doing so. Dont take my word for it
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Notice how they say "distracted" by other companies? Is it too much for shareholders to wish for their CEO to not be distracted by anything? Thats what being a CEO means. Hell, thats what being an employee means.

So regardless of whether they are right or wrong in drawing the correlation between Tesla's underperformance and Elon's many commitment, they dont want a CEO who doesnt spend time outside of Tesla. What they want is a CEO that gets *sugar* done, regardless of how many companies they have.

Im not saying they are right or wrong or that Elon is failing. Im saying none of that. Im only saying you are mistakenly interpreting what they say.

I think a lot of companies also have wording where you actually can't work at multiple companies in the employment contract at the same time unless it's disclosed. Add in how Musk uses Tesla workers to "help" his other companies which doesn't help Tesla (such as when he took over Twitter).

This board is pretty interesting in terms of the mindset. Maybe it's the FUD media, but looking at random user comments from any article not here, they tend to be more anti-Elon in general about this compensation vote. Of course, the majority of those are probably non-shareholders and jealous people overall. It's still interesting the sentiment outside of here.

There is also a conflict of interest with AI within Tesla and xAI. An employee already was moved to xAI and Elon has stated he won't want to develop AI and Tesla if he doesn't get his 25% putting a conflict of interest with one of his other holdings detrimental to current shareholders.

I think the move yesterday was from the semi announcement. All "smaller" short term stock movements, up or down now are not really anything to be concerned or excited about until real news come quarter end, comp plan vote, 8/8.

 

[Singuy]

Tesla Shareholder Group Slams Elon Musk’s $56 Billion Pay Package

(Bloomberg) -- A coalition of Tesla Inc. shareholders is urging its peers to reject the $56 billion pay package for Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk that the company’s board has asked investors to approve again.Most Read from BloombergOne Dead After Singapore Air Flight Hit By Severe...

finance.yahoo.com

I told you this vote is not about the compensation at all, those who vote no wants to remove Elon as CEO.

Yup, which is good news. This means we only have a few dumba$%es so likely this will pass as Yes.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Thats where you are wrong. "Full time" is a perception for CEOs and that perception is earned through your actions and results. An employee is technically full time when he works at least 40 hours a week. They can have multiple jobs and be full time at each one of them. Theres a baseline for a "full time" CEO and that does not include spending every waking moment at the company. It does, however, include basic stuff like being on top of all executive decisions, acting in the best interest of the company and its shareholders, achieving good results, etc. Elon can be a full time CEO at every single on of his companies if people think hes done the best job that can be asked of anyone in his position. Apparently these people dont think Elon is getting things done at Tesla.

They are not complaining Elon is spending time at his other companies. Their complaint is Tesla suffers because hes doing so. Dont take my word for it
View attachment 1049513View attachment 1049514
View attachment 1049515

Notice how they say "distracted" by other companies? Is it too much for shareholders to wish for their CEO to not be distracted by anything? Thats what being a CEO means. Hell, thats what being an employee means.

So regardless of whether they are right or wrong in drawing the correlation between Tesla's underperformance and Elon's many commitment, they dont want a CEO who doesnt spend time outside of Tesla. What they want is a CEO that gets *sugar* done, regardless of how many companies they have.

Im not saying they are right or wrong or that Elon is failing. Im saying none of that. Im only saying you are mistakenly interpreting what they say.

Yup. I feel like people want to avoid applying the same common sense principles to Tesla / Musk as they would elsewhere.

For instance, in many companies more slack is allowed for employees that are high performers that have been there a long time.

If I have a employee who is high performing, they can do whatever they want / however they want as long as they get their work done.

But if suddenly that works stops getting done, what happens? The reigns tighten. This is almost always the case, anywhere.

So if I was seeing an employee and the company underperforming, maybe becuase they were distracted tweeting too much, I would definitely be wanted to change their priorities.

The most ironic part is Elon himself - knowing how he operates (look at all the recent layoffs) - do you think he would have accepted the recent performance of the CEO of Tesla?

Could you imagine if Musk saw the CEO of Boring Company or Neuralink spending half their time on another company AND on a public social media platform making a bunch of tweets?

Elon Musk would have fired himself.

 

[Singuy]

Yup. I feel like people want to avoid applying the same common sense principles to Tesla / Musk as they would elsewhere.

For instance, in many companies more slack is allowed for employees that are high performers that have been there a long time.

If I have a employee who is high performing, they can do whatever they want / however they want as long as they get their work done.

But if suddenly that works stops getting done, what happens? The reigns tighten. This is almost always the case, anywhere.

So if I was seeing an employee and the company underperforming, maybe becuase they were distracted tweeting too much, I would definitely be wanted to change their priorities.

The most ironic part is Elon himself - knowing how he operates (look at all the recent layoffs) - do you think he would have accepted the recent performance of the CEO of Tesla?

Could you imagine if Musk saw the CEO of Boring Company or Neuralink spending half their time on another company AND on a public social media platform making a bunch of tweets?

Elon Musk would have fired himself.

Currently we have Zero US EV maker and rocket company that is self-sustainable and Elon so happened to be the CEO of both. He would fire himself but too bad he's 1 of 1 in the world with a track record proving so.

 

[dl003]

Employees have nowhere near the volume needed to move the market of such a highly liquid stock.

It was planned in advance since Friday morning. I detected a huge call flow before the spike from 174 to 180. I don't think yesterday was the reason for it. Unless we drop straight to the 160s from here, something else is coming.

I don't think it's a fade. Doesn't feel like a fade. Initially there was a rush of call buying that pushed the stock up. Then, people un-"familiar with the matter" sold as it's OPEX and 180 just seemed like a good price. However, those calls were bought; there had to be a reason. They must be anticipating something over the weekend and don't mind these peasants selling on a Friday cuz they know Monday will go the way they want. We are still trading a lot higher than before the call buying commended.

If I'm right, the structure we're seeing will soon yield to a more vertical variation with shallow retracements few and far in between.

 

[Musskiah]

As of May 13, 2024, Tesla's (TSLA) short interest was $18.47 billion, or 109.66 million shares shorted, and 3.95% of the float. You have to go back to June 2021, 3 years ago, to find higher short interest in terms of number of shares shorted (split adjusted of course). Don't believe me @Knightshade ? Below are thumbnails of data - that's the thing about data, it doesn't care about your opinion

 

[growler23]

Love it. The future should look like the future, and this thing looks badass.

The more electric semis being built, the faster the ev transition.

Yes - that is the right attitude.
It is also the attitude in the recently posted video from the Tesla Semi presenter (Greg Priestley?) He specifically asked for other OEMs to go "all in" on electric and compete directly with Tesla. He specifically stated that they should learn from the failures in the "light duty" (car) market of other OEMs. Paraphrasing, "They have learned that building a powertrain-neutral platform does not result in a compelling product that people want to buy". Then he stated again that other trucking companies should design all-electric from the ground up, with no compromises.
I hope they listen. The competition will help us all, and I have few worries about Tesla's lead there in the short-medium term.

 

[2daMoon]

As of May 13, 2024, Tesla's (TSLA) short interest was $18.47 billion, or 109.66 million shares shorted, and 3.95% of the float. You have to go back to June 2021, 3 years ago, to find higher short interest in terms of number of shares shorted (split adjusted of course). Don't believe me @Knightshade ? Below are thumbnails of data - that's the thing about data, it doesn't care about your opinion

Further supported in @Papafox thread

Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

TSLA chart above QQQ chart above I hope no one was surprised by Tuesday mandatory morning dip. It's the logical play on a Tuesday when the stock price went bonkers on Monday. Scare away the traders with the dip, and then with the lower volume (only about half of Monday's) tweak TSLA so that...

teslamotorsclub.com

Where is offered over two weeks of ~60% of TSLA selling tagged to shorts each day:

"So, what happens on Wednesday? TSLA could possibly extend its gains, but an equally likely situation would be for the option sellers to push TSLA back below 185 by day's end. Strike 185 is a really tall call wall that the market makers will be very motivated to avoid closing above for a second day in a row. Nonetheless, it might happen. China sales are doing fine, cybertruck production is up to about 1400/wk and climbing, and we get to see FSD v12.4 videos within a week or so. Tick, tick, tick.​

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Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts remained very high at 58%"​

 

[Knightshade]

As of May 13, 2024, Tesla's (TSLA) short interest was $18.47 billion, or 109.66 million shares shorted, and 3.95% of the float. You have to go back to June 2021, 3 years ago, to find higher short interest in terms of number of shares shorted (split adjusted of course). Don't believe me @Knightshade ? Below are thumbnails of data - that's the thing about data, it doesn't care about your opinion

I agree data doesn't care about your opinion.

Like when I posted the historic short data debunking your opinion we're remotely near high shorting...and proving that 3.x is historically low short interest- as in lower than the entire history of the company until a couple years ago when it dropped massively from 10+ years well above 25% shorting....the fact 3.95% is slightly but barely above average since then doesn't change the fact 3.95% is massively less than historical average.

Not sure why you keep beating such a factually inaccurate drum.

Here's the charts again since I guess you didn't look at it the first time?

SI as % of float last 5 years-

SI as % of float since IPO-

 

[scaesare]

Except it's a diesel hybrid.


View attachment 1049496

And what they call a mild hybrid that doesn't use a high-voltage electric system for locomotion, but rather a 48v system for accessories like engine fans and steering.

Meh.

 

[scaesare]

What is a full time CEO?
If your CEO is married, are they not full time?
If your CEO goes on vacation, are they not full time?
If they put in 80hrs/ week for your company, do the other 88 matter? (Just a number, not a claim)

I'd also factor in efficiency. I'd be willing to bet Elon accomplishes more significant/important/critical tasks in 4 hours than many CEO's do in a couple of days.

 

[hobbes]

Further supported in @Papafox thread

Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

TSLA chart above QQQ chart above I hope no one was surprised by Tuesday mandatory morning dip. It's the logical play on a Tuesday when the stock price went bonkers on Monday. Scare away the traders with the dip, and then with the lower volume (only about half of Monday's) tweak TSLA so that...

teslamotorsclub.com

Where is offered over two weeks of ~60% of TSLA selling tagged to shorts each day:

"So, what happens on Wednesday? TSLA could possibly extend its gains, but an equally likely situation would be for the option sellers to push TSLA back below 185 by day's end. Strike 185 is a really tall call wall that the market makers will be very motivated to avoid closing above for a second day in a row. Nonetheless, it might happen. China sales are doing fine, cybertruck production is up to about 1400/wk and climbing, and we get to see FSD v12.4 videos within a week or so. Tick, tick, tick.​

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Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts remained very high at 58%"​

The post you quote from Papafox is from May 1.. but the same mechanisms might apply today.