Norbert
TSLA will win
Tesla plans to provide 5000 test drives and they are going to do this over 12 weekends. That's an average a little over 200 test rides per day. (With 6 cars operating for 8 hours with 4-5 rides per hour that should do it.)
So I figure at the minimum Signature reservations up to about #400 should get an invitation to Fremont for the 23rd and 24th.
Your numbers sound reasonable in themselves, but the blog speaks of 2,000 for the first two weekends:
I am very pleased to announce that we are kicking off North American test drives the day after our first customer deliveries! In typical Tesla style, we are going big right out of the gate with 2,000 test drives in the first two weekends.
Unless that's a typo, it means 1,000 for Fremont. (I guess the first two weekends will be larger events than some of the others).