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The demise of the OEMs

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"Count Mazda ... among the automakers who were criticized for dragging their feet into EVs, but the company is likely now glad it did.

Globally, for the first three quarters of its fiscal year, Mazda on Friday reported record earnings of 200.2 billion yen ($1.32 billion), up 83% year over year, with global sales volume up 17% to 930K units. The company is forecasting “record results for all profit levels” when it reports fiscal full year results after the quarter ending on March 31."

You can confirm their results via MAZDA: Financial Results & Presentation Documents | IR Library.
 
Misconduct in Toyota.

"Daihatsu admitted in November last year that it had been manipulating safety tests since at least 1989, affecting 64 models, including some sold under the Toyota brand."

 
during this hybrid, last spike in business, Toyota ex CEO is gloating
if Toyota keep adding to its EV capability, they can stay near the top as we come out of this hybrid spike and back into the BEV climb
I like it for in 2-3 years from now, we will need Toyota along with the big 3 plus Tesla to battle the China invasion into the USA with vehicles
never thought I would consider Toyota a friendly to the USA auto manuf, but they are
in the USA it will be Tesla-GM-Ford-Stellantis-Toyota-Hyundai vs China
 
I heard a Toyota sponsorship radio ad on NPR yesterday. Something like (from memory): "Toyota hybrids combine the best of performance and efficiency!". Hmmm, yes, they get the performance from the electric motor and battery, and they get the efficiency from the battery and electric motor. Hmmm.
hilarious, for hybrids, lets not talk about smoke/pollution coming out of the tail pipe
just like when a prius is in front of me, i give then the stink eye
i say "you're living a false hood for the environment"
 
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"Despite the hit from the six weeks of industrial action, the auto giant reported strong earnings for 2023 as a whole.

Net revenues came in at 189.5 billion euros for the full year, up 6% from 2022, and consolidated shipment volumes rose 7%. Adjusted operating income for 2023 was up 1% to 24.3 billion euros, while industrial free cash flows increased by 19% to 12.9 billion euros.

The world’s third-largest automaker by revenues on Thursday proposed a dividend to shareholders of 1.55 euros per common share, roughly a 16% increase from the previous year, and announced a 2024 share buyback program of 3 billion euros"
 
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"Despite the hit from the six weeks of industrial action, the auto giant reported strong earnings for 2023 as a whole.

Net revenues came in at 189.5 billion euros for the full year, up 6% from 2022, and consolidated shipment volumes rose 7%. Adjusted operating income for 2023 was up 1% to 24.3 billion euros, while industrial free cash flows increased by 19% to 12.9 billion euros.

The world’s third-largest automaker by revenues on Thursday proposed a dividend to shareholders of 1.55 euros per common share, roughly a 16% increase from the previous year, and announced a 2024 share buyback program of 3 billion euros"


Will that last?

 
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"Despite the hit from the six weeks of industrial action, the auto giant reported strong earnings for 2023 as a whole.

Net revenues came in at 189.5 billion euros for the full year, up 6% from 2022, and consolidated shipment volumes rose 7%. Adjusted operating income for 2023 was up 1% to 24.3 billion euros, while industrial free cash flows increased by 19% to 12.9 billion euros.

The world’s third-largest automaker by revenues on Thursday proposed a dividend to shareholders of 1.55 euros per common share, roughly a 16% increase from the previous year, and announced a 2024 share buyback program of 3 billion euros"
I know that GM did something like this - didn't Ford as well?

I would like these choices a lot more if they were paired up with a detailed explanation of how they can return cash to shareholders this way while keeping their EV technology related investments unaffected. Clearly Tesla is an efficient spender when it comes to capital and R&D - have the Detroit 3 found a way to lower their own costs in these areas? Maybe they've learned that they can accomplish the end result without throwing larger and larger piles of money at the problem? (In which case, returning excess cash is a good thing, and they need to explain that).


For my part I see (1) businesses that are in denial about the future technology of their business, and (2) short term thinking by executives. I then ascribe to those executives financial motives that arise from their personal pay packages which emphasize short term stock price, while ignoring or de-emphasizing the health of the business by 2030.

I don't believe they have figured out how to be more efficient with their capital and R&D spending; I mostly believe that they haven't figured out how to build and sell the new technology and are more or less looking around and looking for somebody else to be successful at at figuring out how to build and sell the new technology, at which point their strategy is to be a fast follower. They just need somebody that is not-Tesla to find a successful strategy for design / build / sales of EVs for them to follow, as they've pretty clearly failed at following Tesla.

At the moment that alternative strategy seems to be hybridizing their products. I can certainly see the attraction from their point of view.


The positive spin I have on these cash returns to shareholders is that the businesses know that they're heading for bankruptcy. They can use that knowledge to pull back on the necessary investments for the longer term health of the business, and thereby generate outsized cash and returns in the short term. That is beneficial to today's shareholders and (I assume) particularly beneficial to today's executives. In 3-7 years where the businesses need their nations to bail them out, and shareholders get wiped out, at least they'll have had the current dividends and stock buy backs to help ease the pain.

The negative spin is that the execs are using financial engineering to pad their own wallets, rather than doing the hard work of running a long term business. It's one of many reasons why I'll invest in most anything Elon does - I've never seen him engage in financial engineering designed to juice results in the short term; he's always thinking long term and explaining the short term variation.
 
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Is it just me, or does it sound like this headline is getting cause and effect backwards (is it lower EV prices that are driving the cheaper batteries, or is it the batteries that enable the lower EV prices? H'mmm...).

The first line of the article looks like it has more typical causation in mind.

I don't know if US EV market has dramatic effect on global prices for cobalt, nickel, lithium, and copper.
 
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The above mentioned Our Chevy Blazer EV Has 23 Problems After Only 2 Months | Edmunds followed by GM Issues Stop-Sale for Chevy Blazer EV Due to Software Glitches | Edmunds.

Our 2024 Chevy Blazer EV Is Back, But the Stop-Sale Remains | Edmunds is an update from Feb 22, 2024.
 
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