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The M3 terrifies BMW

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No, I was not. If I was responding to your post, I would have quoted you. You will notice that I actually quoted EaglesPDX, because I was responding to him.

But thanks for the unnecessary snark, it was much appreciated. :rolleyes:
Apologies.
I note a limitation of the ignore button -- Some posts lose their reference origins.
Your post followed mine so I jumped to the wrong conclusion.
 
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General Motors honestly does not believe, despite the fact the Toyota Prius has sold over 100,000 units per year for 11 years, that the American car buying public wants truly fuel efficient or electric vehicles at all.
Sadly, with the currently relatively low price of gasoline in America, I think the majority of American car buyers do not place fuel efficiency as a high priority when buying a car and have little interest in an EV. That said, I am optimistic that the Model 3 will start to change the average car buyers perception of an EV and increase interest.
 
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Good points. And all this confusion and complicated calculations is partly why so many of us on these forums err towards pure BEV. For me it's pretty easy - my car runs off electricity only, and I only charge at home. Where my solar panels cover 100% of my electricity usage (okay, maybe it won't this winter given the additional usage of an EV, but still pretty close). The only argument left is if net metering really counts as a 1:1 in terms of emissions.
I'm with you -- home PV is the way to go! Particularly for someone like me who lives in coal country.
 
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Apologies.
I note a limitation of the ignore button -- Some posts lose their reference origins.
Correct. This is one downside to ignoring users. You don't see their quoted text. At the bottom of the page, you'll see a link to "Show Ignored Content" (or similar) and this is the sign that something's hidden. But it can break the flow at times.
 
Sadly, with the currently relatively low price of gasoline in America, I think the majority of American car buyers do not place fuel efficiency as a high priority when buying a car and have little interest in an EV. That said, I am optimistic that the Model 3 will start to change the average car buyers perception of an EV and increase interest.
To be honest, I'm less concerned with fuel efficiency (price efficiency), than I am about driving through nasty inversion pollution that we get here in Utah in the winter. And even then, it's a combination of factors. I wouldn't buy a Tesla on emissions alone. I wouldn't buy a Tesla on fuel savings alone (I do not expect to make up the price differential between a Tesla and a comparable ICE, even after 5-8 years). I would not buy a Tesla for the cool technology alone. I would not buy a Tesla on the amazing performance alone (though after driving one for a month and a half now, I might). But the confluence of all of these - it's a home run. And back to pollution - even if I were using pure grid power (which has lots of coal here in Utah), I'm so glad that that "long tailpipe" is NOT near where I (or lots of other people) live. So it's a minor factor in that nasty inversion air.
 
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To be honest, I'm less concerned with fuel efficiency (price efficiency), than I am about driving through nasty inversion pollution that we get here in Utah in the winter. And even then, it's a combination of factors. I wouldn't buy a Tesla on emissions alone. I wouldn't buy a Tesla on fuel savings alone (I do not expect to make up the price differential between a Tesla and a comparable ICE, even after 5-8 years). I would not buy a Tesla for the cool technology alone. I would not buy a Tesla on the amazing performance alone (though after driving one for a month and a half now, I might). But the confluence of all of these - it's a home run. And back to pollution - even if I were using pure grid power (which has lots of coal here in Utah), I'm so glad that that "long tailpipe" is NOT near where I (or lots of other people) live. So it's a minor factor in that nasty inversion air.
This is one of the strengths of Tesla: even though you and I have quite different motivations, we end up with the same car.

Cheers
 
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However, even Jeff's preferred source puts the Prius and Volt on about even CO2 emissions in the best case of California,
No it doesn't. The new generations of the Volt and Prius were both introduced in model year 2016. The Volt gets an estimate of 160 g per mile and the mainstream Prius trim gets an estimate of 205 g per mile which is 28% higher.

Further, California is not the best case. Other areas have lower grid CO2 although California is certainly much better than much of the country.

On a national average, the Volt is scored as 200 g per mile although about 40% of US Volts are actually sold in California and they are not evenly distributed around the country. But again, that does not account for individual owners proactively choosing renewable electricity which they can do either through rooftop solar or optional renewable power rates in many parts of the country.

Anyway, here is contradictory information to the above from the ANL, courtesy of Elgowainy, Wang et al from 2010.
Notice that this is only CD use; the petrol miles are way inferior to a Prius.

That reference is out-of-date. It does not model an actual first generation Volt but rather a generic PHEV40. It uses old grid CO2 emission rates. Coal use on the grid has dropped sharply over the last decade and that 2010 study likely uses underlying data that actually was gathered circa 2006.
 
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Fair enough, so far as it goes.
The problem I have with this calc is that it uses average CA grid emissions rather than marginal emissions. Big difference in conclusions.
There is academic debate about whether average emissions or marginal emissions are better to use. They are obviously not the same and each is a good choice in different circumstances. Marginal is useful for understanding the near-term emissions from adding discrete additional load on the grid. The EPA's FuelEconomy.gov website chooses to use average grid CO2 emissions instead.

Using marginal emissions requires that you make assumptions that the EV charging in the garage is a marginal use but the furnace blower, hot tub circulation pump, and other home power users today are not marginal. At what point does a device become an average rather than a marginal use? Clearly every device cannot be a marginal user.

In the longer run, when EVs make up a substantial fraction of vehicles on the road, it will no longer make sense to distinguish EV charging as a marginal use.

I care about the longer-term picture.

Getting there inherently requires going through a period of time when EVs are newfangled marginal additions to our grid consumption. I see no point in distorting the longer-term big picture of EV-based grid emissions by assuming that transitional grid emissions are higher because they are marginal use cases in the early years and therefore it is best to just keep using gasoline.
 
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That reference is out-of-date. It does not model an actual first generation Volt but rather a generic PHEV40. It uses old grid CO2 emission rates. Coal use on the grid has dropped sharply over the last decade and that 2010 study likely uses underlying data that actually was gathered circa 2006.
For WECC the reference is fine since it basically says that marginal electricity generation is NG during the day and out of state coal at night which is true today.
 
There is academic debate about whether average emissions or marginal emissions are better to use. They are obviously not the same and each is a good choice in different circumstances. Marginal is useful for understanding the near-term emissions from adding discrete additional load on the grid. The EPA's FuelEconomy.gov website chooses to use average grid CO2 emissions instead.

Using marginal emissions requires that you make assumptions that the EV charging in the garage is a marginal use but the furnace blower, hot tub circulation pump, and other home power users today are not marginal. At what point does a device become an average rather than a marginal use? Clearly every device cannot be a marginal user.

In the longer run, when EVs make up a substantial fraction of vehicles on the road, it will no longer make sense to distinguish EV charging as a marginal use.

I care about the longer-term picture.

Getting there inherently requires going through a period of time when EVs are newfangled marginal additions to our grid consumption. I see no point in distorting the longer-term big picture of EV-based grid emissions by assuming that transitional grid emissions are higher because they are marginal use cases in the early years and therefore it is best to just keep using gasoline.
And if an EV lasted 100 years I would agree with you.

As for the other devices are users too argument, I don't use it because the car has an alternative of liquid fossil fuels. EV Vs ICE is a pollution opportunity cost decision.
 
There is academic debate about whether average emissions or marginal emissions are better to use. They are obviously not the same and each is a good choice in different circumstances. Marginal is useful for understanding the near-term emissions from adding discrete additional load on the grid. The EPA's FuelEconomy.gov website chooses to use average grid CO2 emissions instead.

Using marginal emissions requires that you make assumptions that the EV charging in the garage is a marginal use but the furnace blower, hot tub circulation pump, and other home power users today are not marginal. At what point does a device become an average rather than a marginal use? Clearly every device cannot be a marginal user.

In the longer run, when EVs make up a substantial fraction of vehicles on the road, it will no longer make sense to distinguish EV charging as a marginal use.

I care about the longer-term picture.

Getting there inherently requires going through a period of time when EVs are newfangled marginal additions to our grid consumption. I see no point in distorting the longer-term big picture of EV-based grid emissions by assuming that transitional grid emissions are higher because they are marginal use cases in the early years and therefore it is best to just keep using gasoline.
For someone not up on this, can you clarify? I understand base and peak power production. Are you saying that a "marginal" use is something new and not widespread, so would not be covered by base load production (and thus by a more efficient production means?).
 
For WECC the reference is fine since it basically says that marginal electricity generation is NG during the day and out of state coal at night which is true today.
WECC is not actually representative of California grid use even though it represents a large region that is partially interconnected. For WECC to be representative it would require massive transmission interconnects that would equally allow power generated in Mexico (for example) to flow into Washington State or California. It doesn't work that way. In reality, the large majority of power consumed in Washinton or California is generated locally.
 
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WECC is not actually representative of California grid use even though it represents a large region that it partially interconnected. For WECC to be representative it would require massive transmission interconnects that would equally allow power generated in Mexico (for example) to flow into Washington State or California. It doesn't work that way. In reality, the large majority of power consumed in Washinton or California is generated locally.
About 20% of CA electricity is imported from out of state and a large fraction of that energy is coal. That is why night-time charging emissions are some 20% higher than daytime.
 
WECC is not actually representative of California grid use even though it represents a large region that it partially interconnected. For WECC to be representative it would require massive transmission interconnects that would equally allow power generated in Mexico (for example) to flow into Washington State or California. It doesn't work that way. In reality, the large majority of power consumed in Washinton or California is generated locally.
Well, there's the massive Intermountain Power Plant in Delta, UT (Intermountain Power Plant - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) that goes exclusively to LA area.
 
And if an EV lasted 100 years I would agree with you.
Huh? No. I'm talking about whether electricity use today is considered to be marginal emissions vs average emissions for charging a plugin car. That has nothing to do with whether I'm plugging in the same exact car 100 years later (I'll be dead by then...)

The issue is whether we confuse people by counting the plugin vehicle they own today as a marginal grid use while the plugin vehicle they own in 2035 would be magically transformed into an average grid use.

I think it makes better sense to assume plugin cars will succeed and rapidly become mainstream so to understand the impact they have on global emissions during the transition process we should keep our eye consistently on average emission figures. Marginal emissions make things complicated and hard to understand and are not appropriate in the long run.

Doing the marginal use dance just confuses people into confusion and inaction, in my opinion.
 
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Well, there's the massive Intermountain Power Plant in Delta, UT (Intermountain Power Plant - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) that goes exclusively to LA area.
About 2/3rds of California grid is generated in the state. Of the remaining 3rd, 1/3rd of that comes from cleanish power in the northwest and 2/3rds comes from the less cleanish but getting better southwest.

Total Electricity System Power

image.jpeg
 
About 2/3rds of California grid is generated in the state. Of the remaining 3rd, 1/3rd of that comes from cleanish power in the northwest and 2/3rds comes from the less cleanish but getting better southwest.
You forgot to mention that in the CA emissions inventory, 'unspecified' is counted as fossil fuel or coal -- I cannot remember which. And for good reason. I mis-spoke earlier when I said 20% of CA electricity is imported -- 20% of CA electricity is SW imports and about half of that is coal sourced.

By the way, that table appears to sum up the NW imports incorrectly.
 
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I don't mind the conservative guidelines you repeatedly post - in fact, I think they're commendable. I just don't like seeing them used as the yardstick to the Model 3 reality.

The basic financials on car as per cent of budget has nothing to do with Tesla specificially. It applies to all cars. A $42.000 "average" per Tesla car is about the price range of the average US income earner or even the media US income earner.

Not sure why that fact upsets some of the Telerati.

If people aren't using them today to buy vehicles, why should you assume they're going to do so for the 3?

Because the Tesla carries more baggage than the average car so not only is it relatively expensive, it has range issues, charging issues. While some of us will live with it, most people will not so cars like the BMW 330e are a good alternative allowing someone to reduce his GHG emissions by 30-80%. That's a good thing so BMW's using Tesla's long lead time to sell low emissions, high mpg cars is good.
 
You forgot to mention that in the CA emissions inventory, 'unspecified' is counted as fossil fuel or coal -- I cannot remember which. And for good reason. I mis-spoke earlier when I said 20% of CA electricity is imported -- 20% of CA electricity is SW imports and about half of that is coal sourced.
No, that appears to be an invalid assumption today. You are assuming that all of the unspecified power in the SW import source is coal. This is unlikely.

Unspecified power is described in the document containing that chart. Follow the link to read all of it but it mostly boils down to:

Generally, the unspecified power category would be comprised of short-term market purchases from those power plants that do not have a contract with a California utility. Much of the Pacific Northwest spot market purchases are served by surplus hydro and newer gas-fired power plants. The Southwest spot market purchases would be comprised of new combined cycle power and some coal. Generally, a marginal supply approach for the determination of spot market supply would yield the most accurate assessment of power included in the unspecified power category.

And...

Surplus, or marginal generation, is what typically serves the spot market. Hydro and coal used to be the marginal resource through the mid-1990's, but load growth surpassed coal generation capacity. Generally, hydroelectric and natural gas-fired electricity generation are considered the marginal generation sources in the interconnected western electricity system. There may be some surplus coal available during off-peak periods, but California generators are usually at minimum load levels during these periods.

By the way, that table appears to sum up the NW imports incorrectly.
Yes, I see that but the discrepancy amounts to less than 1% of the total so it doesn't matter. Maybe it's an internal rounding error of some kind inside a spreadsheet calculation? I dunno.