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The Neuralink Master Thread

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Neuralink can potentially have the biggest impact on humanity than Tesla or spacex.

Best case scenario : we are all superhuman.
Worst case scenario: we are all tamed and in submission to deep states or evil governments.

Indeed, Musk's least known company is also his most ambitious. How many companies out there set out with their ultimate goal being to defeat death itself and turn humans into veritable gods?
 
Joking aside, I believe that Neuralink, or something similar, is inevitable. Consider the progression of computing tech over the decades:

large rooms of computers >> mainframes >> PCs >> laptops >> smartphone/tablets >> wearables (watches, visors, glasses)

Not just miniaturization, but also personalization. Getting ever closer to the body on an ever constant basis. The next logical step after wearables is direct implants, finally crossing the boundary of skin. With(in) the body and at all times. It is the natural progression of computing tech.

Very interesting in the context of the extended mind and body ideas in cognitive science and philosophy, where many thinkers argue that humans are already extended with technology and that physical implantation is a mere formality. For example, one's diary or iPhone maybe considered (both cognitively and legally) as part of one's mind, and therefore have the right to "remain silent" in legal/criminal situations. In particular, see this seminal paper by Andy Clark (I wonder if Musk is aware of his work -- it was cited in the above Verge article):

"The Extended Mind" by Andy Clark and David Chalmers
The Extended Mind - Wikipedia
It also implies telepathy via internet, although I didn’t see that in the presentation.
 
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Joking aside, I believe that Neuralink, or something similar, is inevitable. Consider the progression of computing tech over the decades:

large rooms of computers >> mainframes >> PCs >> laptops >> smartphone/tablets >> wearables (watches, visors, glasses)

Not just miniaturization, but also personalization. Getting ever closer to the body on an ever constant basis. The next logical step after wearables is direct implants, finally crossing the boundary of skin. With(in) the body and at all times. It is the natural progression of computing tech.

Very interesting in the context of the extended mind and body ideas in cognitive science and philosophy, where many thinkers argue that humans are already extended with technology and that physical implantation is a mere formality. For example, one's diary or iPhone maybe considered (both cognitively and legally) as part of one's mind, and therefore have the right to "remain silent" in legal/criminal situations. In particular, see this seminal paper by Andy Clark (I wonder if Musk is aware of his work -- it was cited in the above Verge article):

"The Extended Mind" by Andy Clark and David Chalmers
The Extended Mind - Wikipedia
@Antares Nebula
from 53+ years ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bookworm,_Run!
computer - brain link to a monkey
 
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It also implies telepathy via internet, although I didn’t see that in the presentation.
Naturally, cell/smart phone connection right to the brain.

But as the philosopher Andy Clarke (see my post above) would argue, we already have that ability via cell phones and smartphones (or even the Apple watch, that one can wear almost constantly), as they are just an extension of our mind and senses. Implantation is a mere formality.
 
Indeed, Musk's least known company is also his most ambitious. How many companies out there set out with their ultimate goal being to defeat death itself and turn humans into veritable gods?
This will eventually happen and will be the single biggest event in human history: before death and after death.

Of course, immortality will never be 100%. As future assassins will go after not just your current body, but all your backups -- both your mind and body backups. Also, a cosmic event could wipe out life (and all our backups) on our planet or even our solar system. But if/once we start colonizing the galaxy, you can spread your backups around more safely. But even then, it is uncertain whether galaxies or even the universe itself has an infinite lifetime. But maybe then we can figure out a way to tunnel out of our universe into other universes. And so on, and so on. Thus, true God-like immortality can never be had or at least assured. But, yes, for all practical purposes death will have been defeated.

Unfortunately, this is unlikely to happen in our lifetime. My guess: at least 50-100 years, if not more. The brain is extremely complex, the most complex natural or man-made entity we know of. (The most complex man-made entity is the superconducting supercollider in CERN.)
 
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Naturally, cell/smart phone connection right to the brain.

But as the philosopher Andy Clarke (see my post above) would argue, we already have that ability via cell phones and smartphones (or even the Apple watch, that one can wear almost constantly), as they are just an extension of our mind and senses. Implantation is a mere formality.
Depends on the particular neurons threaded and the output control. Unimpeded emotion transmission - maybe not so good.
 
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Interestingly, in the above context, if the next computing paradigm (after wearables) is some kind of cybernetic implant, then Apple, Microsoft, Google, and other computer companies will have to eventually shift to this tech. So beyond the automotive space with smartcars, another of Musk's companies (Neuralink) is on a collision course with the incumbent tech giants (though way down the road).

People are already stoking the flames about an Apple and Tesla partnership/merger regarding a future smartcar platform. But now Apple may have another reason to buy Tesla: to get Musk and Neuralink as well. But I'm not advocating this, only pointing out the competitive landscape. Tesla may end up dominating the smartcar industry, while Neuralink dominates a (distant future) personal computing industry. Or, alternatively, one of the tech incumbents buys both companies and instills Musk as CEO (just like Apple bought Next and Steve Jobs reclaimed the helm).

Anyway, it's all a bit hypothetical and way down the road.

I strongly doubt Apple and Tesla are going to merge, or Apple is going to merge with any Elon Musk company. Elon hates Apple and will resist any attempt at takeover. If Apple succeeds, Elon will leave and probably take the top talent with him leaving Apple with a hollow shell.

Apple is currently into decline as a cutting edge consumer company. Everything they have brought to market since the Model S was introduced (2012) has just been tweaks and derivatives of existing products. Tim Cook is a very competent CEO, but he isn't the spark plug Steve Jobs was.

Microsoft has been down this road. Back in the 90s they were a very splashy consumer products company. Windows 95 was the biggest success with consumer buzz, but they spent years chasing that rainbow with diminishing success. Microsoft is a major tech company. I believe their market cap surpassed Apple's recently (if not it's close), but their dominance is with infrastructure and business products than consumer these days.

I expect Apple will evolve into a backroom tech giant like Microsoft and some other company or companies will be the next consumer darling.

Best case scenario : we are all superhuman. -> Tesla
Worst case scenario: we are all tamed and in submission to deep states or evil governments. -> Microsoft, Google, Amazon

There is a lot to say here. First off I have been doing some neurofeedback (hook electrodes to your head and manipulate brain signals to help with various issues, it' known to help with ADD, fibermialgia, PTSD, and a number of other problems) and the guy I'm seeing is one of the top people in the world. We were talking a few weeks back and he mentioned he personally knows the guys behind Neurolink. The tech needed is all there on the shelf with things like coclear implants for the hearing impaired, but they are putting together the pieces in a new way.

He like I are concerned that this tech could further the gap between the "haves" and "have nots". The problem with any tech like this is that it's going to first become available to a very small population at first who have the money to get the surgery. They could monopolize the tech so they control who gets it and only those who can afford it, or who are deemed useful to the elites will get the tech, and the rest of the population will be left to starve. Anyone who is a lackey of the elites who falls out with them will simply have their implant turned off.

And all computers connected to other computers can be hacked. What happens when someone's brain is hacked? We have enough problems now with foreign governments messing with one another, what happens when one government hijacks the brain of another world leader? Of hijacks the brain of a prominent person in a position to do their bidding, or just steals everything the person has access to.

With automation coming on, we already have 10% or so of the population who are not employable. Whatever they are capable of doing can be done quicker and easier by a machine. Throughout history there was always something else those people could do, but machines have gotten sophisticated enough there is no room in the economy for the bottom 10% of skill sets.

Automation like self driving vehicles and automated kitchens will push another 10-20% of the population out of the workforce.

Neurolink poses the possibility to put 50-75% of the population out of work. What happens to society then? Nick Hanaur has been warning that when the gap between the top earners in society and the bottom gets too wide, one of two things happen: a violent overthrow of the elites (French Revolution), or a crushing dictatorship with a few rich people and the rest of the population fighting over the scraps.

I've also started reading a book written by the author of American Nations called American Character. https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0143110004/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i3

It's sort of a sequel to American Nations, but he looks at more than just America. It's more about societal dynamics in general. In human culture history has been about a three way pull between the mass of the population vs the government vs the elites. The bulk of the population are at their best when the forces of government and elites are kept in check in a healthy way. If the government is too strong, you get totalitarian regimes like the USSR or Nazi Germany. If the government is too weak, the elites fill the power vacuum and they become the abusers of the population. Which is happening in many places around the world today.

Cultures that have the happiest populations are usually ones where the government is just strong enough and structured correctly to keep the elites in check, and the elites have some power, but not too much.

My concern is that technology like neurolink could supercharge the power of the elites in such a way there is no coming back.

@Antares Nebula
from 53+ years ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bookworm,_Run!
computer - brain link to a monkey

The link takes you to a parking page for some reason.
 
Naturally, cell/smart phone connection right to the brain.

But as the philosopher Andy Clarke (see my post above) would argue, we already have that ability via cell phones and smartphones (or even the Apple watch, that one can wear almost constantly), as they are just an extension of our mind and senses. Implantation is a mere formality.
Also good to review “Terminal Man”. Two-way threads to the pleasure center? Probably a bad idea.

Edit:

while
if (current_time - output_spike_time > 1) then input_spike;
end while;
 
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He like I are concerned that this tech could further the gap between the "haves" and "have nots". The problem with any tech like this is that it's going to first become available to a very small population at first who have the money to get the surgery. They could monopolize the tech so they control who gets it and only those who can afford it, or who are deemed useful to the elites will get the tech, and the rest of the population will be left to starve. Anyone who is a lackey of the elites who falls out with them will simply have their implant turned off.

And all computers connected to other computers can be hacked. What happens when someone's brain is hacked? We have enough problems now with foreign governments messing with one another, what happens when one government hijacks the brain of another world leader? Of hijacks the brain of a prominent person in a position to do their bidding, or just steals everything the person has access to.

With automation coming on, we already have 10% or so of the population who are not employable. Whatever they are capable of doing can be done quicker and easier by a machine. Throughout history there was always something else those people could do, but machines have gotten sophisticated enough there is no room in the economy for the bottom 10% of skill sets.

Automation like self driving vehicles and automated kitchens will push another 10-20% of the population out of the workforce.

Neurolink poses the possibility to put 50-75% of the population out of work. What happens to society then? Nick Hanaur has been warning that when the gap between the top earners in society and the bottom gets too wide, one of two things happen: a violent overthrow of the elites (French Revolution), or a crushing dictatorship with a few rich people and the rest of the population fighting over the scraps.

My concern is that technology like neurolink could supercharge the power of the elites in such a way there is no coming back.

I see this from the opposite view. Narrow AI alone is well on track to putting the vast majority of the population out of work and will first concentrate all power in the hands of a handful of tech companies and governments, before eventually power possibly transitions to a super intelligent general AI.
Elon clearly aims for his Neuralink to allow individuals to continue to compete with big tech's centralised AI algorithms so they do not get left behind, as well as to not get left behind by super intelligent AI.
Neuralink is aiming for the procedure to be equivalent to LASIK - it shouldn't be prohibitively expensive. And as Elon said, anyone can take out a loan to buy the procedure and any bank would be confident they could pay the loan back.
The early adopters of this technology will be people with disabilities and illnesses, not elites. The true superhuman powers of the technology are likely to depend on machine learning algorithms interpreting neuron data - for this Neuralink devices will have to be rolled out at scale, very similar to Tesla's data first strategy for autonomous vehicles.

I agree if Neuralink truly delivers it is likely to lead to a divergence in humanity, but I don't think it will be to the current elites. I think it will divide humanity into those who choose to move forward and those who choose to remain behind.
 
I strongly doubt Apple and Tesla are going to merge, or Apple is going to merge with any Elon Musk company. Elon hates Apple and will resist any attempt at takeover. If Apple succeeds, Elon will leave and probably take the top talent with him leaving Apple with a hollow shell.

Apple is currently into decline as a cutting edge consumer company. Everything they have brought to market since the Model S was introduced (2012) has just been tweaks and derivatives of existing products. Tim Cook is a very competent CEO, but he isn't the spark plug Steve Jobs was.

Microsoft has been down this road. Back in the 90s they were a very splashy consumer products company. Windows 95 was the biggest success with consumer buzz, but they spent years chasing that rainbow with diminishing success. Microsoft is a major tech company. I believe their market cap surpassed Apple's recently (if not it's close), but their dominance is with infrastructure and business products than consumer these days.

I expect Apple will evolve into a backroom tech giant like Microsoft and some other company or companies will be the next consumer darling.



There is a lot to say here. First off I have been doing some neurofeedback (hook electrodes to your head and manipulate brain signals to help with various issues, it' known to help with ADD, fibermialgia, PTSD, and a number of other problems) and the guy I'm seeing is one of the top people in the world. We were talking a few weeks back and he mentioned he personally knows the guys behind Neurolink. The tech needed is all there on the shelf with things like coclear implants for the hearing impaired, but they are putting together the pieces in a new way.

He like I are concerned that this tech could further the gap between the "haves" and "have nots". The problem with any tech like this is that it's going to first become available to a very small population at first who have the money to get the surgery. They could monopolize the tech so they control who gets it and only those who can afford it, or who are deemed useful to the elites will get the tech, and the rest of the population will be left to starve. Anyone who is a lackey of the elites who falls out with them will simply have their implant turned off.

And all computers connected to other computers can be hacked. What happens when someone's brain is hacked? We have enough problems now with foreign governments messing with one another, what happens when one government hijacks the brain of another world leader? Of hijacks the brain of a prominent person in a position to do their bidding, or just steals everything the person has access to.

With automation coming on, we already have 10% or so of the population who are not employable. Whatever they are capable of doing can be done quicker and easier by a machine. Throughout history there was always something else those people could do, but machines have gotten sophisticated enough there is no room in the economy for the bottom 10% of skill sets.

Automation like self driving vehicles and automated kitchens will push another 10-20% of the population out of the workforce.

Neurolink poses the possibility to put 50-75% of the population out of work. What happens to society then? Nick Hanaur has been warning that when the gap between the top earners in society and the bottom gets too wide, one of two things happen: a violent overthrow of the elites (French Revolution), or a crushing dictatorship with a few rich people and the rest of the population fighting over the scraps.

I've also started reading a book written by the author of American Nations called American Character. https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0143110004/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i3

It's sort of a sequel to American Nations, but he looks at more than just America. It's more about societal dynamics in general. In human culture history has been about a three way pull between the mass of the population vs the government vs the elites. The bulk of the population are at their best when the forces of government and elites are kept in check in a healthy way. If the government is too strong, you get totalitarian regimes like the USSR or Nazi Germany. If the government is too weak, the elites fill the power vacuum and they become the abusers of the population. Which is happening in many places around the world today.

Cultures that have the happiest populations are usually ones where the government is just strong enough and structured correctly to keep the elites in check, and the elites have some power, but not too much.

My concern is that technology like neurolink could supercharge the power of the elites in such a way there is no coming back.



The link takes you to a parking page for some reason.
You raise very valid concerns about neuralink tech. But this is technological progress and it will happen. We as a society have to just make sure that it works well for all of us. But undoubtedly, just like today, the powerful will abuse the less powerful. Will it create some crazy catastrophe that results in a dystopia? Hopefully not. It's good that we have people like Musk (and not Zuckerberg) leading the charge here.
 
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Interesting results. I conducted a Twitter poll of how likely people would be to sign up for a FDA/EMA approved Neuralink implant. Now, of course, this is totally non-scientific, including a participant bias towards Tesla fans. But still:

Nafnlaus on Twitter

upload_2019-7-22_15-7-29.png


Even if the actual take rate among the general public would be much lower, I strongly suspect that they've got a huge market for these implants, beyond just people with neurological disabilities.

I'm sure it'd be at least a decade before such a general public implant would be approved, however.
 
Interesting results. I conducted a Twitter poll of how likely people would be to sign up for a FDA/EMA approved Neuralink implant. Now, of course, this is totally non-scientific, including a participant bias towards Tesla fans. But still:

Nafnlaus on Twitter

View attachment 432740

Even if the actual take rate among the general public would be much lower, I strongly suspect that they've got a huge market for these implants, beyond just people with neurological disabilities.

I'm sure it'd be at least a decade before such a general public implant would be approved, however.

Wow, and without even considering what it’s hypothetically approved/used for...
 
Interesting results. I conducted a Twitter poll of how likely people would be to sign up for a FDA/EMA approved Neuralink implant. Now, of course, this is totally non-scientific, including a participant bias towards Tesla fans. But still:

Nafnlaus on Twitter

View attachment 432740

Even if the actual take rate among the general public would be much lower, I strongly suspect that they've got a huge market for these implants, beyond just people with neurological disabilities.

I'm sure it'd be at least a decade before such a general public implant would be approved, however.
I think the cost of the thing is going to be way more then $4000 even in volume. Lasic is non invasive and requires no hardware in the patient. The HW alone is going to be thousands let alone the software/IP and surgery.
 
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