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The situation in Iceland

Discussion in 'Iceland' started by Premium, Dec 12, 2013.

  1. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    So, (1) Geographic bias, (2&3) already accounted for in road traffic figures (I-90 (2x chargers) is Ring Road-level traffic, I-25 (1 upcoming charger) only marginally more), (4) Geographic bias then. Which shouldn't be a shock but is a disappointing reason.

    1) Like for example Oahu, an island where the longest loop you can drive is only 100 miles and most of the electricity comes from burning oil?
    2) Amply covered above
    3) As discussed previously, a Tesla vehicle will get a significantly longer range in Iceland because our speed limits are lower, and the speed limit has a much stronger effect on range than the temperature (which isn't actually that cold here)
    4) I hope that's the main problem. :(
     
  2. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Active Member

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    Good idea. Russia was/is the direct result of the Tesla owners and importers agitation. Talking with the Moscow Tesla Club leadership directly is a good idea.
    Igor Antarov is the one you need to talk with:
    Igor Antarov
    New Zealand was also the result of owner agitation:
    Steve West was the lead instigator there.
    Both of them were at TMC Connect a few weeks ago:
    TMC Connect

    Many of us have perspective on the issues and a number of us have experience in motivating Tesla. I am not an expert myself.

    Without any doubt at all, being a customer is a vastly easier influence process than becoming a supplier.

    PM me if you want to ask more detailed questions.
     
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  3. SageBrush

    SageBrush 2018: Drain the Sewer

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    A thought:

    How much tourist traffic by ferry is there from Norway ?
    Tesla has been very accommodating towards the Tesla EV owning populace in extending the utility of their cars to areas they want to visit via SC installations. Although it may hurt Icelandic pride a bit, perhaps one approach should be that Iceland access is a natural extension of the larger Norwegian market.

    It also might play well in Iceland when trying to drum up support for local charging infrastructure: get those rich Norwegian Tesla owners over for a holiday!
     
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  4. miimura

    miimura Active Member

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    If people want to grassroots the Tesla expansion, make sure people only bring in European cars, not American imports. Apparently, some Icelandic dealers have imported US model VW e-Golf cars that have J1772 / SAE Combo charging ports because they're cheaper than the European e-Golf cars. The problem is that they're not compatible with the CCS Type-2 chargers that are installed in Iceland. Oops. Don't make that trouble for your Tesla cars. A related story is that New Zealand formally stated that their charging standard was Type-2 and BMW stepped up and will change the charge ports on the i3 cars they imported and sold from J1772 / SAE Combo to CCS Type-2. Good on them and lucky for those owners.
     
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  5. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    No (1



    1) Like for example Oahu, an island where the longest loop you can drive is only 100 miles and most of the electricity comes from burning oil?
    2) Amply covered above
    3) As discussed previously, a Tesla vehicle will get a significantly longer range in Iceland because our speed limits are lower, and the speed limit has a much stronger effect on range than the temperature (which isn't actually that cold here)
    4) I hope that's the main problem. :([/QUOTE]
     
  6. Chuq

    Chuq Active Member

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    Interesting reading, @KarenRei - my home state of Tasmania (Australia) has many things in common with Iceland - an island (of course!), area (we're about 2/3 the size), population (you're about 2/3 our population), almost 100% renewable energy (we are hydro & wind), terrain (both winding and mountainous roads), heavily tourism focused economy, both full of friendly people :), cold climate (although it doesn't get as cold here in the coastal areas), and a lack of superchargers!

    We do have a couple of advantages - our ferry crossing to the mainland is only ~400 km, and since we aren't a seperate country Tesla does technically have a presence here, in a legal sense.

    You do have an advantage in that you have a number of Chademo/CCS DC fast chargers - we have none! And you don't have a regressive federal government (ours loves coal :( )

    We've been offered some tips:
    - Tesla prefer a minimum of 4 stalls (=2 supercharger units - in case one fails)
    - Their "planned" maps are essentially the ones that they have an existing budget for. If you can provide a location with a supportive landowner, enough power availability (4 stalls would need 270kW), and in an appropriate strategic location (near facilities, appropriate distance from other cities), even if it isn't on their "planned" map, they would still seriously consider it! A few US sites have electricity costs covered by the host, I imagine an offer like this would help immensely. Know a company with a proven track record of installing electrical devices at this scale, and is keen? Also a bonus!

    Basically if you/the community do all the hard work, it will make their decision really easy.

    In the meantime we are getting as many destination chargers installed as possible. Is the absence of any in Iceland because of Tesla not being willing to provide them?
     
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  7. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    So, I talked with Gísli last night. Great guy, by the way (sent me a picture of him and Musk, too ;) ).. Apparently his last big attempt was late 2015. He tool a Model S around the country in 2015, reporting on the conditions and realized range in each location, found several places for superchargers, etc and was talking with them about trying to get some progress on this front. He had even offered to buy superchargers and set them up himself (did I mention that Gísli is awesome? ;) ). His view is that they probably won't even consider the issue until there's at least some given number of Teslas in Iceland (hooray for the Chicken-and-Egg problem! :Þ Right now it doesn't make much difference whether you buy a Tesla or a Leaf, your average user isn't going to be driving either of them on a cross-country trip). He does have hope though, and not just because the Model 3 will significantly increase the number of Teslas in the country; apparently the aforementioned 24% tax will be dropped (for the first ~$55k USD) later this year or early next (he dubbed it the "Tesla Tax"). So that's huge, that's like a $10k discount on a Model 3 and more on an S. I'll have to recheck the numbers, it might even be worth it for me to jump in line and get a new Model 3 rather than waiting for a used one simply to avoid maintenance on Insight, which sometimes amounts to thousands of dollars per year ;) (everything's expensive here.... soon hopefully with the exception of Teslas!)

    I offered him whatever support I can in helping this along; he's (obviously and unsurprisingly) a lot better connected on this front than myself. But I don't know if he plans another push any time soon, or is just resigned to Tesla dragging their feet on this front for years more.
     
  8. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    You're a bit easier of a situation, as Tasmania is smaller than Iceland and you can drive straight across the middle ( so, for example, Hobart- Launceston = ~200km / 125mi, and even to Wynard is ~350k km / ~215mi. Your speed limits are a touch higher, but climate more moderate, probably similar ruggedness. But regardless, I hope you manage to get a few eventually! BTW, I love your trees; I actually imported some seeds of some of your hardier mountain eucalyptus species and planted then on my land, hoping that they might be able to make it - but none of them did. I may try again a decade down the road once there's more shelter from the wind. :)

    Where does the ferry leave? I assume it goes to Melbourne? Because there's at least a supercharger in Melbourne. :)

    My sympathies about Turnbull. :(
     
  9. jaguar36

    jaguar36 Active Member

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    Thousands of Tesla's have been bought in other area's before Tesla had an official presence there. Plenty of places both around the world, and in the US. Many of us bought our cars long before there were any Superchargers nearby. Iceland has a fair number of Chademo stations, you could survive just fine with a Tesla there without any Superchargers 99% of the time.

    You keep stomping your foot and ignoring all the reasonable reasons given for why Tesla doesn't care about Iceland, but the fact is that Iceland doesn't really seem to care about Tesla. As of the end of 2016 the number of Tesla's there was in the single digits.
     
  10. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    #70 KarenRei, Jul 20, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2017
    That's simply false. Heck, there were twelve Teslas sold in Iceland in 2013:

    The Tesla Model S in Iceland: The First 7 Cars to Movers and Shakers

    Seven of them sight unseen.

    You're confusing single-year-to-date sales figures on relatively poor year with total accumulated sales. There have been dozens of Teslas sold here (and 1 1/2 orders of magnitude more cheaper EVs). Per capita that's equivalent to selling many tens of thousands of Teslas and hundreds of thousands of cheaper EVs in the US. Despite the fact that there are no Tesla dealers here (hence Tesla's reduced share of the market vs. other EVs, which make up a whopping 5% of all vehicle sales). Despite the fact that there are no superchargers here, and our trip distances long. Despite the 24% VSK - which will be disappearing soon, right at the time Tesla is releasing a low cost model, effectively shaving $10k off of a Model 3 price and $20k off an S and X. At a time when just the opposite is happening in the US (the $7,5k tax credit phaseout).

    Nobody is asking for the number of charging stations in the US. I'm talking about proportional representation. A similar proportion of superchargers to areas of similar population and population density elsewhere in the developed world, a rate similar to other roads with similar vehicle traffic figures. Which if anything we should have more supercharger coverage than simple proportionality for the many reasons that I see no need to reiterate for a third time in this thread. If the bloody Scottish highlands get one to cover an area whose largest city has less than 50k people, then it's about time that we start getting superchargers too.

    And if you want to know why I'm "stomping my foot" it's because of the continued misrepresentations of Iceland and its market, to the point that I had to write up an entire myths list. I swear, next I'm going to have to point out that we don't live in igloos and ride polar bears to work....
     
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  11. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    Dozens isn't sufficient for Tesla to invest in a Supercharger network in Iceland. As an isolated island that requires multiple Superchargers for coverage you'll need many more sales than that.

    At least wait until they're selling the Model 3 in the USA, Canada, Mexico, China, Japan, South Korea, Norway, the EU, the UK, Australia and New Zealand before complaining about the lack of attention in Iceland.

    EDIT: oh, Switzerland as well.
     
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  12. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    #72 KarenRei, Jul 20, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2017
    Focusing on the number of specifically Teslas is unreasonable because Tesla has no presence here, no supercharging network, so obviously they're only going to get a smaller portion of the market at present; other brands are getting vastly higher sales here because they're not ignoring us (and because they have cheaper vehicles, something Tesla will soon offer as well). Five percent (and growing, and before they gain a huge tax advantage) of new vehicle sales are EVs.

    Let me put it another way. Let's say growth stops at 5% for some weird reason, so that we ultimately level off at 5% of the vehicle fleet being electric drive. Most of the Ring Road (all but NE/ENE) gets 3-13k vehicles per day. If only five percent of them needed supercharging, that would be 150-650 vehicles needing supercharging per day at regular intervals around the road. Even as it stands today, 0,5% of our vehicle fleet is already electric, meaning if there was equal representation on the Ring Road, it would be 15-65 supercharges per day at each of regularly spaced chargers.

    Of course, almost none of the current EV fleet drives on the Ring Road, because they can't. At least not without a lot of time on their hands. This inability to drive our country's most important road is the reason that EV sales are only 5%, and why 60% of them are PHEVs rather than BEVs. Because people actually need to go places. Saying that Tesla shouldn't invest because they haven't sold enough Teslas here, when the reason they haven't sold many Teslas here is because they haven't invested, is a textbook example of the chicken-and-egg problem.

    Norway has such a high EV market penetration, and specifically Tesla penetration, specifically because Tesla has build superchargers all over the country. It's not the only reason, but it's a large part of it. There are 34 stations (not stalls) in Norway, with even more planned. Even if you ignore that lower population densities calls for more superchargers and Iceland has a lower population density than Norway, that would mean that Iceland should have 2-3 superchargers. Believe me, Iceland's sales - and specifically Tesla's sales - would be far higher if we had 2-3 superchargers; that would make most of the country accessible.

    (Oh look, I was saying that we're the third highest buyer of electric vehicles per capita in Europe. Guess I was wrong, we're now second: Share of new electric and hybrid cars in Iceland second highest in Europe)

    And Jordan, and the UAE, and Mexico.....
     
  13. Chuq

    Chuq Active Member

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    Wow, I have to say you know a lot more about Tasmania than I do about Iceland :)

    Yes, the ferry goes from Devonport to Melbourne. The Australian Electric Vehicle Association's national conference is being hosted by the Tasmanian branch this year, and we are holding it in Devonport, because we can cheekily promote it as "only 6km of range from Melbourne" :)
     
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  14. Yggdrasill

    Yggdrasill Active Member

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    I disagree that the superchargers are the reason why sales have been high. The supercharger network was bigger in Germany than in Norway even in late 2013, yet sales in Norway were many percent of Teslas total sales, while sales in Germany were insignificant. Also, thousands of Model S reservations were placed before Tesla gave any indication they would bring the supercharger network to Europe. I remember discussing with someone around 2012 whether Tesla should bring the superchargers to Europe, or whether they should support CHAdeMO. Luckily they decided to bring the supercharger network to Europe.

    The biggest reason by far why Tesla has done well here is the incentives. Most importantly, no VAT and no purchase tax. Of course, this is a self-amplifying system. As Tesla takes action to meet the existing demand, by opening stores, service centers and adding superchargers, more demand is spawned.

    I think Tesla should open a store and add superchargers in Iceland. But I also completely understand why it's a ways down the to-do-list. Iceland has approximately the population of of the county of Nordland in Norway. And Nordland still doesn't have a Tesla store, despite superchargers already being in place, the regulatory issues being fully resolved for Norway, and there already being a Norwegian Tesla team. If you want to buy a Tesla in Bodø, the town I grew up in, you will have to do the servicing in either Tromsø or Trondheim, respectively 8.5 hours or 10 hours away by car.

    Basically, Tesla has had, and continues to have, bigger fish to fry.
     
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  15. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    You changed what I wrote from "It's not the only reason, but it's a large part of it" to "the reason". Obviously there's much more that factors into the decision to make an EV purchase. But ability to get where your going is a strong part of it. Norway being lower population density than Germany, it makes it even more important.

    For the twentieth time this thread, nobody is asking for the same number of superchargers as in western Europe / Scandinavia the US. What's being asked for is proportional representation, particularly with account for GDP per capita, population density, and fuel cost. Particularly because we have demonstrably strong interest in buying EVs, at over 5% of all vehicle sales even without a supercharging network, #2 in Europe.

    The same will apply to the Model 3 here. So why aren't we listed on the expansion plans? A gas guzzler can face taxes up to 89% here when you add together VAT and the high-emissions vörugjald. Our gas prices are also the third highest in the world.

    That's exactly the point I've been making this whole thread. It's Tesla's choice whether to amplify or suppress demand. They're suppressing it for my country, dispoportionately to population/GDP/population density/gas prices/etc, and that's annoying.

    If you scaled down Norway's supercharger network by population, Iceland should have 2-3 stations with a dozen or so stalls. Which would be immensely useful. Iceland's lower population density however argues for an even higher ratio of people to superchargers (the world over, Tesla's supercharger network doesn't scale linearly with population; the ratio of superchargers to population increases in lower population density areas, because it becomes more important to have them there. Only once they hit a critical threshold where superchargers will tend to be frequently full (like in, say, SoCal, SF and Hong Kong) do they switch to linear scaling)

    Yeah, because it sits right between two of them, along a huge supercharging network feeding a small number of people :Þ

    Oh deary. Meanwhile I'll have to do it by driving or hauling my car to Seyðisfirði (8 hours) and sending it on a half-week, $500 USD ferry ride to Denmark. Each direction. Even by assuming only visiting a service center once every three years, half of my calculated likely maintenance costs come from just getting the vehicle to a Tesla service centre. It seriously hurts the economics of Tesla ownership. And then people have the gall to come here and say "Well, people in Iceland are buying other brands of EVs than Tesla...."
     
  16. SageBrush

    SageBrush 2018: Drain the Sewer

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    I was thinking about Karen's statement regarding Iceland's average income as a proxy for Tesla demand. I don't know Iceland well enough to have an opinion about that country but in general two groups have been buying the expensive Teslas so far:

    1. People with high disposable incomes. A household with $60k USD living in Manhattan e.g, is probably struggling economically.
    2. People motivated by incentives/tax breaks

    So perhaps Iceland is an EV happy country just waiting for the Model 3 :)
    And of course any future change in tax breaks will matter a lot
     
  17. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    When you run the numbers, it's pretty easy to make an economic argument for owning a Tesla here because our gas prices are so high. And we have a very high incentive (no VSK on the first ~$60k). There's also a number of small side economic benefits, like free parking in town and the like.

    Probably the most fair argument for why Tesla might hesitate to come to come here is that the incentive is renewed annually (and has been since 2012), rather than being made permanent. There's not really any political party here who wants to gut EVs, but I can understand how needing an annual renewal on the VAT deduction might make a company hesitate**. But the arguments on why Tesla shouldn't be here based on population, interest, economics, etc don't make any sense when compared to the rest of their network.

    ** But then again, in the US it's known that the credit is going to disappear, yet they're going all out on expanding their US network....
     
  18. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Active Member

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    #78 jbcarioca, Jul 21, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2017
    You ignored a very important segment, possibly the most important ones: People who have never before bought an expensive car, or never bought a new one, who are barely on the borderline of economic ability to pay, who are enamored of Tesla cars and probably what they represent also. I do not claim objective statistical proof. I do clim that most of the people I personally know who own Tesla fit that category. nearly all of them have the less expensive versions.

    The high disposable income types seem often to have PxxxD versions usually loaded.

    While tax breaks are a force there seems to be substantial evidence that those influence buyers of Leaf, Bolt, i3, etc far more than they do Tesla. Admittedly Model 3 is likely to have greater impact than is S and X.

    We need to be very careful not to oversimplify market influences for BEV's especially with so many new ones soon to enter markets, charging infrastructure expanding almost worldwide and price-competitiveness of BEV's is rapidly improving.

    BTW, a US$60k annual income family in Manhattan does NOT have a car! They're lucky if they can eat regularly.

    Iceland is different than are most other countries AFAIK in four major ways:
    1. Lack of domestic petroleum makes hydrocarbons very, very expensive;
    2. Abundant thermoelectric and thermal heating makes cost of electricity and home heating quite reasonable;
    3. Fairly long distances and need for private transport make cars practical for many people who do not appear likely on global net income perspectives;
    4. Despite a financially stressed government, BEV's are vastly cheaper than are other cars, and there is already a pretty decent charging infrastructure:
    PlugShare

    All of that makes Tesla highly likely to be very successful in Iceland without huge investment. In addition, there is tourism in Iceland by people who bring their cars. The eight-hour or so ferry ride can be part of the attraction. Superchargers will encourage such activity by Tesla owners.

    Finally, a quick look at March 2016 sales of EV and PHEV show an annualized ~750 vehicles sold in Iceland last year that would be in Tesla-like price ranges. Further, Iceland has a marked preference fro large vehicles also. When considering that the EV market in Iceland is vestigial, but already around 5% of sales or so, Tesla can easily envision annual sales of, say, 300 units even without the obviously growing market, assuming that roughly half the PHEV group in Tesla-like price ranges will opt for the superior product that is vastly les expensive to operate. 300 units is not enormous but it is an excellent beginning that will spawn greater success. Further, by now the numbers are very likely far higher than they were.
     
  19. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    #79 KarenRei, Jul 21, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2017
    60k is nearly the average income here (taking into account the new exchange rate), not a high income here. To mention again for something like the 5th time on this thread, Iceland is not a poor country. We're probably in the top 10 in the world with our current exchange rate.

    And you know what else people with high incomes tend to like? Actually being able to get where they need to drive to, and not having to wait over a week's worth of shipping to have their car serviced.

    (And I'm sorry, I know I sound bitter here. My apologies about that)
     
  20. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Active Member

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    Please don't be bitter. Just understand that good information and positive opportunity will succeed over anything else. The story is important. Please remember that all the ICE builders ahem been around Iceland for a long, long time so simply started selling PHEV or Renault/Nissan BEV as adding to their established business. Tesla is still a startup so every new market is completely new. For certainty the proximity with Noway and Denmark adds to the allure of Iceland for Tesla. They only need the story.
     

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