I was thinking about Karen's statement regarding Iceland's average income as a proxy for Tesla demand. I don't know Iceland well enough to have an opinion about that country but in general two groups have been buying the expensive Teslas so far:
1. People with high
disposable incomes. A household with $60k USD living in Manhattan e.g, is probably struggling economically.
2. People motivated by incentives/tax breaks
So perhaps Iceland is an EV happy country just waiting for the Model 3
And of course any future change in tax breaks will matter a lot
You ignored a very important segment, possibly the most important ones: People who have never before bought an expensive car, or never bought a new one, who are barely on the borderline of economic ability to pay, who are enamored of Tesla cars and probably what they represent also. I do not claim objective statistical proof. I do clim that most of the people I personally know who own Tesla fit that category. nearly all of them have the less expensive versions.
The high disposable income types seem often to have PxxxD versions usually loaded.
While tax breaks are a force there seems to be substantial evidence that those influence buyers of Leaf, Bolt, i3, etc far more than they do Tesla. Admittedly Model 3 is likely to have greater impact than is S and X.
We need to be very careful not to oversimplify market influences for BEV's especially with so many new ones soon to enter markets, charging infrastructure expanding almost worldwide and price-competitiveness of BEV's is rapidly improving.
BTW, a US$60k annual income family in Manhattan does NOT have a car! They're lucky if they can eat regularly.
Iceland is different than are most other countries AFAIK in four major ways:
1. Lack of domestic petroleum makes hydrocarbons very, very expensive;
2. Abundant thermoelectric and thermal heating makes cost of electricity and home heating quite reasonable;
3. Fairly long distances and need for private transport make cars practical for many people who do not appear likely on global net income perspectives;
4. Despite a financially stressed government, BEV's are vastly cheaper than are other cars, and there is already a pretty decent charging infrastructure:
PlugShare
All of that makes Tesla highly likely to be very successful in Iceland without huge investment. In addition, there is tourism in Iceland by people who bring their cars. The eight-hour or so ferry ride can be part of the attraction. Superchargers will encourage such activity by Tesla owners.
Finally, a quick look at March 2016 sales of EV and PHEV show an annualized ~750 vehicles sold in Iceland last year that would be in Tesla-like price ranges. Further, Iceland has a marked preference fro large vehicles also. When considering that the EV market in Iceland is vestigial, but already around 5% of sales or so, Tesla can easily envision annual sales of, say, 300 units even without the obviously growing market, assuming that roughly half the PHEV group in Tesla-like price ranges will opt for the superior product that is vastly les expensive to operate. 300 units is not enormous but it is an excellent beginning that will spawn greater success. Further, by now the numbers are very likely far higher than they were.
