There will be NO HW4 upgrade for HW3 owners

[macmee]

Apparently there will be no free upgrade Elon Musk kills hope of Tesla retrofitting new Autopilot/Self-Driving hardware

Which seems very unfair given I paid 10k and other folks here paid even more. Honestly that makes me want to pursue some sort of recourse.

 

[Joshnickell]

I am surprised as well. Especially after they have shown a history of making these upgrades. I paid for FSD upfront because of this history and bought it at the end of last year based on it as well. I guess it comes down to if HW3 can really achieve autonomy. I hope the definition of autonomy doesn’t change from when I bought it. I’m okay with it only 300% safer instead of 600% safer, but I’ll be unhappy if it’s completely different levels of autonomy.

 

[lb92677]

2 points:
I think as far as having a retrofit for HW3 to HW4, there will be pressure from the the large pool of current owners and we still might see an upgrade path but it will be quite expensive to do it since Elon talked about if it made sense economically.

But, for me it is really about full self driving level 4 or 5 autonomy. Currently I "manage" driving while FSD is on. It is very helpful now as is. It will continue to improve with software updates. Elon did say that HW3 is good enough for FSD. HW 4 may improve "humanlike" driving over HW3 but you still have to pay attention at all times. I would be interested in a new Tesla only if it achieves full level 4 or 5 autonomy and I don't need to pay attention to driving at all. Since I am older, I may not be able to renew my drivers license one day, but I could still have the Tesla take me wherever I want to go. I could also use it a a robotaxi for extra income if desired. That is where the real value would be.

 

[JulienW]

There is already a thread about this with pages of discussion. Here is my post during the Earnings Call on Page one.

HW4 sensor suite and hi-res camera updates?

How do they deal with the slightly different camera positions on different models now? Train the perception neural nets with data from all four or are there actually four different versions? Last I heard (they keep tight lipped about these things) there's a calibration process and then while...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[MY1stEV]

Honestly that makes me want to pursue some sort of recourse.

Despite past precedents with early S/X models, Tesla has no desire to be in the upgradable car business. They are in the mass production business. Your Tesla is very much like an Apple device these days. Software support for several years after purchase, but if you want new hardware features, you have to trade-in or sell your car and buy the latest model.

 

[argon2018]

Apparently there will be no free upgrade Elon Musk kills hope of Tesla retrofitting new Autopilot/Self-Driving hardware

Which seems very unfair given I paid 10k and other folks here paid even more. Honestly that makes me want to pursue some sort of recourse.

This is beyond unbelievable. Elon said the car can drive from LA to NY without any interventions (this was on Tesla website and it has since been removed). He said the car will be an increasing asset. If he delivers on these promises with HW3 I'm fine with that, and that's fair. But I have been a fan since 2018, owned Model 3, Model Y and now Model X Plaid, and always bought the FSD.

If he can't deliver these promises with current hardware (I have FSD beta, and it seems highly unlikely) especially when they removed the radar, there needs to be a class action lawsuit for false promises.

I would be okay to pay for the upgrade fee but this is why some of us bought FSD and invested in FSD for this exact reason. He has become a different person

 

[argon2018]

View attachment 900738

Despite past precedents with early S/X models, Tesla has no desire to be in the upgradable car business. They are in the mass production business. Your Tesla is very much like an Apple device these days. Software support for several years after purchase, but if you want new hardware features, you have to trade-in or sell your car and buy the latest model.

Not when you purchased a feature that was documented on their website that the car can drive from LA to NY without intervention (they have now removed it from their website) but it still says the car in the parking lot will find you. So we shall see.

Many people believed in these promises and the fact that the car can become a taxi when you are at home. Unless he delivers on these promises with current hardware, there will be a big lawsuit.

It's not like saying I want the matrix headlights for free for a car that was purchased 2 years ago.

 

[AndrewZ]

I think what you'll see is Tesla argue that FSD after a certain point, like 2019 (Knightshade probably knows more accurately), was not sold with the promise of robotaxi-like functionality. FSD wasn't tied to any SAE level and that's by design, the argument will be that a supervised Level 2 ADAS qualifies as "achieving FSD" on these HW3 vehicles and hence the revenue recognition last quarter.

What's being communicated right now is exactly what was communicated to the California DMV in the leaked correspondence way back when and that so many people called FUD. After FSD is released to the wider fleet as a Level 2 ADAS, further iterative processes will begin with the goal of achieving higher levels of autonomy. Tesla never expected FSD to move beyond Level 2 in its current implementation, they said that almost word for word in their letters to the DMV.


We seriously have no clue what a generalized Level 4-5 consumer vehicle would actually look like, but I fully expect the new hardware versions to have more robust sensor suites. Cameras alone and in current locations are fine for a Level 2 ADAS, not for Level 3+.

 

[argon2018]

And apparently, this video demonstrating FSD was staged. Clearly, we know it, as I have FSD beta and there is no way you can drive without intervention.

Tesla Self-Driving Demo Video Was Staged Says Engineer | Entrepreneur

A 2016 Tesla video promoting and demonstrating self-driving technology was staged, according to testimony by a senior engineer.

www.entrepreneur.com

 

[argon2018]

I am surprised as well. Especially after they have shown a history of making these upgrades. I paid for FSD upfront because of this history and bought it at the end of last year based on it as well. I guess it comes down to if HW3 can really achieve autonomy. I hope the definition of autonomy doesn’t change from when I bought it. I’m okay with it only 300% safer instead of 600% safer, but I’ll be unhappy if it’s completely different levels of autonomy.

We paid for the features demonstrated on the website upfront. At the time, it was saying the car can drive from LA to NY without any interventions. As long as he delivers on those promises that were documented on the website, I can live with that. But so far, It is far from it. He said with the current hardware, people can sit at home and car drive around and make money for the owner. Highly doubt that it will be achievable given the current rate of improvement. And how many more years before the car starts breaking down and you have to purchase a new one. I was a fan of Tesla and Elon but not anymore, they have been cutting corners removing sensors....

 

[argon2018]

2 points:
I think as far as having a retrofit for HW3 to HW4, there will be pressure from the the large pool of current owners and we still might see an upgrade path but it will be quite expensive to do it since Elon talked about if it made sense economically.

But, for me it is really about full self driving level 4 or 5 autonomy. Currently I "manage" driving while FSD is on. It is very helpful now as is. It will continue to improve with software updates. Elon did say that HW3 is good enough for FSD. HW 4 may improve "humanlike" driving over HW3 but you still have to pay attention at all times. I would be interested in a new Tesla only if it achieves full level 4 or 5 autonomy and I don't need to pay attention to driving at all. Since I am older, I may not be able to renew my drivers license one day, but I could still have the Tesla take me wherever I want to go. I could also use it a a robotaxi for extra income if desired. That is where the real value would be.

That's not correct. On the first autonomy day, he said our cars can be Robotaxis and will be an appreciating asset. He said you can sit at home and the can drive around and make money for you. He also said the car can go from LA to NY without any interventions.

Do you really think this would happen with the current hardware? maybe in 10 years the software becomes that good but then you will likely have to replace the car cause it will break down

 

[argon2018]

I don't think he will get away with this. At least provide an option to transfer FSD to a new car that you are purchasing or have a fee to retrofit. We shall see how it plays out. At some point, this will become Elizabeth Holmes situation

 

[AndrewZ]

The HW3 setup will never be sufficient for Level 4-5, and HW4 and HW5 probably won't be either.

Tesla will likely argue people weren't sold Level 4-5, and people will argue the perception sold by Elon did indicate Level 4-5. I'll just pop some corn and watch from the sidelines.

 

[argon2018]

I think what you'll see is Tesla argue that FSD after a certain point, like 2016-2017 (Knightshade probably knows more accurately), was not sold with the promise of robotaxi-like functionality. FSD wasn't tied to any SAE level and that's by design, the argument will be that a supervised Level 2 ADAS qualifies as "achieving FSD" on these HW3 vehicles and hence the revenue recognition last quarter.

What's being communicated right now is exactly what was communicated to the California DMV in the leaked correspondence way back when and that so many people called FUD. After FSD is released to the wider fleet as a Level 2 ADAS, further iterative processes will begin with the goal of achieving higher levels of autonomy. Tesla never expected FSD to move beyond Level 2 in its current implementation, they said that almost word for word in their letters to the DMV.


We seriously have no clue what a generalized Level 4-5 consumer vehicle would actually look like, but I fully expect the new hardware versions to have more robust sensor suites. Cameras alone and in current locations are fine for a Level 2 ADAS, not for Level 3+.

Did he or did he not say that the current hardware will be a Robotaxi and as a result an appreciating asset? that's level 5 autonomy. These were mentioned on the first AI autonomy day. Was it not mentioned on their website that the car can drive from LA to NY without any interventions? that's not ADAS. Thats level 4 autonomy

 

[Ruffles]

My take having tested FSDBeta since 10.2 is that the cars sees traffic just fine. It doesn't need better cameras or sensors. Where it needs work is in the path prediction and planning. I have no idea (and I don't think anyone else does either) if they are CPU bound with the current compute hardware but given that they are running both stacks and comparing them makes me think they have plenty of computing horsepower. I think there is room for plenty of improvement still on HW3 to get to what was implied when I bought my car. I'm not worried about it. I've seen tons of progress in the last couple of years and nothing to indicate that my car doesn't have the HW needed.

 

[AndrewZ]

Did he or did he not say that the current hardware will be a Robotaxi and as a result an appreciating asset? that's level 5 autonomy. These were mentioned on the first AI autonomy day. Was it not mentioned on their website that the car can drive from LA to NY without any interventions? that's not ADAS. Thats level 4 autonomy

Yeah this is more or less how I expect it to go down in court

My take having tested FSDBeta since 10.2 is that the cars sees traffic just fine. It doesn't need better cameras or sensors. Where it needs work is in the path prediction and planning. I have no idea (and I don't think anyone else does either) if they are CPU bound with the current compute hardware but given that they are running both stacks and comparing them makes me think they have plenty of computing horsepower. I think there is room for plenty of improvement still on HW3 to get to what was implied when I bought my car. I'm not worried about it. I've seen tons of progress in the last couple of years and nothing to indicate that my car doesn't have the HW needed.

IMO there's a 0% chance Tesla activates a generalized Level 4-5 robotaxi and takes liability for the DDT without sensor redundancies, what you're describing is fine for a supervised ADAS. But HW3 will not be fine when you take the small risk of problems during inclement weather, sensor failure, or any number of other things and need to manage that risk across millions of vehicles in what will be required for a generalized consumer robotaxi.

HW3 will always require driver engagement, and Tesla "achieved" FSD on that hardware by releasing FSD Beta to the wider fleet as a Level 2 ADAS.

 

[argon2018]

Disagree. They have not yet "achieved." Promises were the car will find when you are in the parking lot, it can drive from LA to NY without any interventions, and it will be a robotaxi when you are home and make money for you. Current FSD beta requires 2x more attention as it does dangerous breaks, or completely misses things.

 

[AndrewZ]

I'm not arguing my point of view here, just trying to convey what I think Tesla will argue when this inevitably leads to legal action. They will argue that for most owners, FSD as SAE Level 3+ was never actually promised.


When this inevitably leads to further legal action that is, beyond all the similar/related cases already on the docket

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

2019

March 2019

given that they are running both stacks and comparing them

This is not happening anymore (can look elsewhere for the info), if it ever did. Gotta use them both!

This post has the time-stamped link direct from Tesla showing that they are using both:

FSD Beta 10.12

I'm taking a road trip from Los Angeles to Phoenix next week and it would be so much nicer to have the update just for the 85 AP speed limit. The more frustrating part about not receiving all FSD beta updates for me is more about all the features on the stable branch that I haven't received.

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[argon2018]

The HW3 setup will never be sufficient for Level 4-5, and HW4 and HW5 probably won't be either.

Tesla will likely argue people weren't sold Level 4-5, and people will argue the perception sold by Elon did indicate Level 4-5. I'll just pop some corn and watch from the sidelines.

It's not a "perception" when he claimed on the first AI day all Teslas with HW3 will become robotaxis. or another example such as the car can drive from LA to NY without any human intervention (that was written on their website and since it has been removed".

which part of that is a perception?