[UK centred discussion] The cat is out of the bag. True FSD will never happen for cars below HW4

[Zilla91]

Not great quality pics up close. Need to see more really. I imagine a while before this reaches 3/Y and then UK. Could be years over here

Word on the street is that production at Shanghai has been, or will be, suspended for 2 weeks to upgrade the lines for these updates

What I don't get is how these cameras in the headlights won't get blinded by the headlights. Didn't the cameras on the side not have an issue with the indicator lights?

 

[WllXM]

Word on the street is that production at Shanghai has been, or will be, suspended for 2 weeks to upgrade the lines for these updates

What I don't get is how these cameras in the headlights won't get blinded by the headlights. Didn't the cameras on the side not have an issue with the indicator lights?

My thiughts exactly. I suppose a bunch of very well paid engineers thought about that but they would still be the first manufacturer that I know of to put cameras inside the lights cluster. Wonder why no one has done so before…

So some fears about glares/refllections/grime/dirt, especially as the camera lens seems to sit far away from the glass.

 

[Zilla91]

Hopefully the moisture in the headlights doesn't trick it into thinking it's raining outside and sending the wipers crazy

 

[CWT3LR]

Hopefully the moisture in the headlights doesn't trick it into thinking it's raining outside and sending the wipers crazy

Oooh, brilliant, two extremes can cancel out! If it sends the wipers crazy, they might just work like normal.

 

[Durzel]

Word on the street is that production at Shanghai has been, or will be, suspended for 2 weeks to upgrade the lines for these updates

What I don't get is how these cameras in the headlights won't get blinded by the headlights. Didn't the cameras on the side not have an issue with the indicator lights?

It’s possible they might. The first (and a couple of subsequent generations) of the repeaters had the problem of being blown out by the lights, and were only fixed years later.

I guess the question is would it be wise to buy a first generation HW4 car? If you’re buying anyway then I guess it makes sense, otherwise.. I wonder.

 

[starise]

I predict the most intelligent version of FSD in future Teslas will decide not to go into London at all.

 

[Dilly]

I predict the most intelligent version of FSD in future Teslas will decide not to go into London at all.

I was born there 70 years ago. Lived there until I was 13. I could pretty much anywhere on my own from the age of 10.
you couldn’t do that now. I wouldn’t even go back there in my coffin!

 

[Utumno]

Confirmed: Tesla HW4 Will Not Include New Cameras Initially

HW4 is closer to release after a confirmed spotting. New evidence includes details about the new cameras and clarifies speculation about possible changes to cam

www.notateslaapp.com

Discuss.

 

[yessuz]

Confirmed: Tesla HW4 Will Not Include New Cameras Initially

HW4 is closer to release after a confirmed spotting. New evidence includes details about the new cameras and clarifies speculation about possible changes to cam

www.notateslaapp.com

Discuss.

-ting

 

[starise]

I was born there 70 years ago. Lived there until I was 13. I could pretty much anywhere on my own from the age of 10.
you couldn’t do that now. I wouldn’t even go back there in my coffin!

I admit some bias against big cities. I see London as a real challenge. I'll need a car with a plastic body that goes back into shape after numeroue pedestrians and cars have been gently bumped.Ok..maybe not always gently.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I believe most who bought self driving in their Tesla are really ok with driving assist on most outlier roads. Even if I had it, I would be going to manual in any city or heavily crowded areas.

I like that it can in theory get most people around to within a mile of a destination or until it gets closer to busy places. That would be fine for me if I could afford the feature. I am not willing to burn 15K for it, but I'm perfectly content to take advantage of part of the programming stack for controlled experience using standard AP.

Haven't read the fine print for so called "FSD" before purchase, but I'm sure it makes it clear the software is still developmental. What Elon says, well........... we might want to get this out for that next meeting in Mar.

 

[dgnfly]

Sorry for the semi clickbait, but I'll explain how this looks like an admission to me.
During the latest earnings calls two days ago, Elon fully excluded a possible retrofit / upgrade from HW3 to HW4, either paid or free !
"The cost of retrofitting is quite significant so won't be economically feasible".

To me, this clearly means that everybody who purchased FSD with a reasonable expectation to use it in their current cars is set for disappointment. Elon quickly eludes by saying that after HW4 there will be HW5 and so forth, but let's not kid ourselves: There is a new set of hardware 4.0 because TV has somewhat failed using the current HW. Bringing true level 3 FSD in Europe also means a liability shift, which Tesla is not ready to accept yet. Hence the upgrade to high definition radars hinted in HW4 - which is somewhat an admission that pure TV will never bring true-FSD.

Now that this retrofit is out of the question, and after the dramatic price cuts of this month, it will also mean that the current vehicles will depreciate again tremendously once HW4 will be released in a year or so.

Listen in on the call from 29min here :

Thoughts?

For me, I'm no so bothered about FSD, but depreciation / resale value has certainly crossed my mind. In Europe, I'm more interested in the HW4 (additional cameras and radar) helping out with the (lack of) parking sensor issue. My MYP collection was due tomorrow but has been delayed due to a cock up with the finance. I'm wondering whether it might be a good omen and worth waiting. I hear reports that HW4 is being built into some vehicles now, but whether this extends to MY is uncertain?

 

[dgnfly]

-ting

Ah, that's interesting. So it won't help with the lack of parking sensors then (parking in tight spaces in Europe / self parking) for now? Will this be fixed with a software update using the existing cameras / sensors, or will HW4 still ship with the new radar anyway (no mention of that in the article)?

 

[Jane4]

Sorry for the semi clickbait, but I'll explain how this looks like an admission to me.
During the latest earnings calls two days ago, Elon fully excluded a possible retrofit / upgrade from HW3 to HW4, either paid or free !
"The cost of retrofitting is quite significant so won't be economically feasible".

To me, this clearly means that everybody who purchased FSD with a reasonable expectation to use it in their current cars is set for disappointment. Elon quickly eludes by saying that after HW4 there will be HW5 and so forth, but let's not kid ourselves: There is a new set of hardware 4.0 because TV has somewhat failed using the current HW. Bringing true level 3 FSD in Europe also means a liability shift, which Tesla is not ready to accept yet. Hence the upgrade to high definition radars hinted in HW4 - which is somewhat an admission that pure TV will never bring true-FSD.

Now that this retrofit is out of the question, and after the dramatic price cuts of this month, it will also mean that the current vehicles will depreciate again tremendously once HW4 will be released in a year or so.

Listen in on the call from 29min here :

Thoughts?

I feel betrayed. and ripped off. I am writing from New Mexico and am going to call my congressman and the US Department of Transportation. UGH.

 

[GlynG]

Did anyone watch the podcast 12th March, whoever those guys are - and obviously all American, they had quite an in depth chat regarding FSD, whilst there was some scepticism of when FSD will be at a level to have robotaxi they all seemed pretty convinced it will be achieved and a lot of their discussion was right over my head with talk of stacks and other computing phrases, gigflops and AI, neural networks, processing power, In house silicon, but the real interesting bit was - when Tesla achieve it then the software would be worth many times the cars value because commercially its lucrative, and how Tesla would price it because Tesla would want a share of the commercial value - and the talk was it having a value between 100,000 and 200,000 dollars, so outright sales would be a thing of the past and monthly subscriptions would be the logical route.

They had a guest with them who was apparently some sort of expert who had analysed Tesla's previous version of software coding ( A friend extracted and reverse engineered the code on his Tesla and shared this with this "expert") - and he was commenting on just how complex it was and that Tesla are doing it right - but not there yet.

So, although my car with FSD is completely retarded at the moment am I (and others with FSD) sitting on a prospective gold mine when version "success" is launched?

However, If any of those comments are true then it makes commercial sense for Tesla to cripple current FSD, await complaints from customers and offer them their money back, then disable/remove the FSD software from those owners that accept a refund.

 

[Sean.]

However, If any of those comments are true then it makes commercial sense for Tesla to cripple current FSD, await complaints from customers and offer them their money back, then disable/remove the FSD software from those owners that accept a refund.

I’ll take that. Where do I sign

 

[WllXM]

Did anyone watch the podcast 12th March, whoever those guys are - and obviously all American, they had quite an in depth chat regarding FSD, whilst there was some scepticism of when FSD will be at a level to have robotaxi they all seemed pretty convinced it will be achieved and a lot of their discussion was right over my head with talk of stacks and other computing phrases, gigflops and AI, neural networks, processing power, In house silicon, but the real interesting bit was - when Tesla achieve it then the software would be worth many times the cars value because commercially its lucrative, and how Tesla would price it because Tesla would want a share of the commercial value - and the talk was it having a value between 100,000 and 200,000 dollars, so outright sales would be a thing of the past and monthly subscriptions would be the logical route.

They had a guest with them who was apparently some sort of expert who had analysed Tesla's previous version of software coding ( A friend extracted and reverse engineered the code on his Tesla and shared this with this "expert") - and he was commenting on just how complex it was and that Tesla are doing it right - but not there yet.

So, although my car with FSD is completely retarded at the moment am I (and others with FSD) sitting on a prospective gold mine when version "success" is launched?

However, If any of those comments are true then it makes commercial sense for Tesla to cripple current FSD, await complaints from customers and offer them their money back, then disable/remove the FSD software from those owners that accept a refund.

HW4 is rumored to already have 2x-4x more computational power than HW3.
Would make sense that the 'final' version of FSD (in a few years from now, so maybe HW5, HW6, HW7, who knows) will have hardware requirements far in excess of what will be possible to be retrofitted in the current generation of cars.
You will end up in a situation where indeed you bought FSD some years ago, but your car will no longer be supported by the latest update... not sure where that will leave you legally vs. Tesla....

 

[Sean.]

You will end up in a situation where indeed you bought FSD some years ago, but your car will no longer be supported by the latest update... not sure where that will leave you legally vs. Tesla....

I’ll see how the other chap on here fares with his small claim, but I’m inclined to strike now.

 

[dgnfly]

HW4 is rumored to already have 2x-4x more computational power than HW3.
Would make sense that the 'final' version of FSD (in a few years from now, so maybe HW5, HW6, HW7, who knows) will have hardware requirements far in excess of what will be possible to be retrofitted in the current generation of cars.
You will end up in a situation where indeed you bought FSD some years ago, but your car will no longer be supported by the latest update... not sure where that will leave you legally vs. Tesla....

I just can't believe they're charging so much (especially in Europe) for FSD Beta. They're charging users to test their software. Not even offering it for free, but actually charging them! EAP is also not delivering on the promise right now (Yew, I've paid for it, but on the understanding that it was useable and ready for market). Keep these features free for now until it's ready for prime time, and then charge the added premiums. For FSD, fine to keep it as invitation only for now IMO.