Time to press Pause on order waiting for Battery Day + new Gigafactory announcements?

[gagorp]

I ordered a Y in November. From what we’re seeing, seems like all of us who have pre-orders should likely be able to take delivery over the next couple of months.

But, now we’re hearing about two things that causing me to wonder if I should press Pause on the order.

1. We’ve got Battery day coming up. Sounds like Elon may do a 2 part reveal, maybe first part online in June and then an in person in a few months. Sounds like may be disclosing a million mile battery, plus a lower cost battery, and likely other things. I have no guess on when this new battery technology will be available in Model Y, but if it’s in the next year, could be worth waiting for. But, first need to decide whether to Pause delivery to see what’s disclosed at the two battery day reveal. This would say maybe push delivery to at least the September window to get this information.

2. Rumor has it that Tesla will soon announce their next Gigafactory in either Austin or Tusla. Elon has talked about their new Berlin Gigafactory will have the world’s most advanced paint shop. This would likely imply that the new Austin Gigafactory would also have this new advanced paint shop technology, plus since it’ll be outside California won’t be subject to the supposedly bad California paint quality restrictions. The leaks indicated that Elon would like Model Y production to be started at this new factory by end of the year (that seem impossible, but say a year from now). Advanced paint technology could be worth waiting for.

So, factoring both of these in, contemplating if I should cancel my pre-order and wait another year. Wondering how others are thinking about this??

 

[DaveORD]

With Telsa there is always something better happening, you just have to draw your own line in the sand and stick too it. If you decide to wait for some new feature or improvement or cheaper version, with Tesla you may never pull the trigger and actually make that purchase. The MY is the 5th gen Tesla (orig Roadster, MS, MX, M3 and now MY) and each gen lets Tesla hit the reset button and apply everything it has learned and improved upon. What will they learn from the MY today and we will see in CT? What did not make the cut for this MY release but the next go around will have it? Perhaps finally a HUD to compliment the minimalist interior of the M3, MY and CT? Some change to the sensors needed for FSD to become a reality? The good thing with Tesla is that they are always improving their vehicles and tech, not waiting 4-5 years for a new model. That is a double edged sword, how to know when the current offering is good enough versus should I wait for the ...

 

[N-shin]

I am patiently waiting for Y, my first Tesla. I would say if you can get around and can wait an year, wait. But I wouldn't expect the battery tech or new facility would vastly improve overall quality of Y within an year or two. I am sure there would be significant lead time to produce new battery w/ new technology even if they were to start produce right away. Furthermore, when it comes to manufacturing and engineering, we can't rely on smooth knowledge transfer to one side to another. I am sure there would be lots of new guys working in TX/OK but it would be few years down the road. I think my 2nd Tesla in the future would benefit from what you've mentioned, but not this current gen. Y.

 

[rxlawdude]

And not to be a wet blanket, but those Model S 90 owners remember that the 90kWh batteries with new chemistry seemed to have significantly worse degradation than the 60s, 70s, and 85s.

 

[DanCar]

Good thinking to wait. I'm waiting for HW4 in 11 months and 3 row Model Y. But by the time HW4 comes, I might decide to wait for HW5.

 

[MrTuna]

My line was what model Y is today.

Always valid to wait to. Just depends which things you need are.

I wouldn’t wait till something is the best, because it won’t happen. Figure out your needs and pull the trigger then.

I needed SuV size and heat pump with 300 miles range. Got it in today’s Y.

 

[StanT]

So can't speak for what's best for you... I look at it like an iPhone/Samsung- next one is always nicer but at some point you just need a mobile device so you have to go for it. That's why I've waited all this time to buy a Tesla.. The MY ticks all the things my family needs- and yeah, I bet the battery 2 years from now will be better... and the paint will be better, but but for now I'll be able to drive mine (when I eventually get it). And when my MY hits 400k (because every car I buy, I stand in front of my car the day I get it and tell the car- "this is the last face you'll ever see...") maybe I'll have newer and bigger batteries because it will be more expensive to keep making the "ancient" ones in my MY... Who knows.

What I can say is this year getting the MY is a big deal because my family was planning on going on a huge vacation because there were lots of family milestones (age, yrs of marriage, kids) but that's been obliterated by Covid-19 (it was going to be a cruise around Italy- yeah, couldn't pick it worse)... so now going on very long day trips with our MY sounds like a good replacement (and if I can convince my wife- camping in it).

(And shhhh... the kids don't know yet...

 

[empiredown]

Worth forty minutes of your life if what "might be" is important to you before you can decide...

SS

 

[Scooby24]

My major hesitation is if the battery is significantly better it's not just a matter of missing out on the next big thing...the current gen vehicles with inferior battery life will tank in value. We will also likely see the update, if ends up being as rumored, end up reducing the cost.

If I were to get a call on my order today, I would delay a couple months because I absolutely need to know what this direction is going to end up being.

 

[gagorp]

Worth forty minutes of your life if what "might be" is important to you before you can decide...

SS

Thank you for pointing us to this video. This video is awesome, everyone should watch it. But, it certainly does give one pause to see what sort of time frame this may be available. It seems like this could be a significant inflection point between those cars have the the old (current) approach, and the future cars with the new battery technology.

 

[MrTuna]

Does the car today meet your needs? Then buy it today. If not wait until the tech is there.

just waiting for better is a mistake. Say a 50% better battery in 2 years. Cool. Then how long does it need to be live to see real world reliability? Another 2 years? Then what if they announce something better yet 2 more years out...

 

[tashtibet]

life is so unpredictable and I won't wait for something by speculating/imagining-model Y is ready-just enjoy it!

 

[Watts 4 Me]

And who's to say that the new battery tech will be used on the MY right away? It may be deployed on the CT or Semi first.
The MS still hasn't gotten the new batteries the M3 and MY have and its been 3 years already.

 

[Dennisis]

There will always be something better in the pipeline. Really, how far must the range be? Sure more is always better but I took fairly lengthy road trips with my M3 and it was never a problem, don't see one with the current Y either...

 

[NY_Rob]

I would think the CT will be the first Tesla to get the million mile battery.. the battery will be made for that vehicle. Once they have sold many and seen positive results it may filter down to other models, maybe and only if it adds value for the company.

I do agree with the OP as he has a valid concern regarding the resale value of like vehicles with one having the current battery tech and the other one having the million mile battery.

 

[Watts 4 Me]

I do agree with the OP as he has a valid concern regarding the resale value of like vehicles with one having the current battery tech and the other one having the million mile battery.

On cars resale value will always suffer.
You have to look at whats the car doing for you now. Thats were the value is.
Its like saying your happy you waited 15 years to buy a blueray player. 1k then vs $100 now. But you missed out on 15 years off fun times. And now DVD's are on their way out.

 

[Scooby24]

On cars resale value will always suffer.
You have to look at whats the car doing for you now. Thats were the value is.
Its like saying your happy you waited 15 years to buy a blueray player. 1k then vs $100 now. But you missed out on 15 years off fun times. And now DVD's are on their way out.

I think that's a very relative way to look at it. Relative to how often you buy new cars. Not everyone keeps their cars for the long haul and so the resale factor and outside factors like this that may impact it do need to be weighed on the timing for purchase.

For the EV market, depending on the direction Musk wants to go on this, the difference between waiting until after new batteries are incorporated into the outgoing models may make a major difference.

Is waiting 6 months worth it or not? That's also relevant but for some of us there is definitely value in not just factoring in what the car is doing for us now...but also what the car could be in a year from now.

 

[MY-Y]

I'd be surprised to see a new battery in the MY soon. It's been a few years since Tesla's last battery upgrade and they still haven't updated the old battery pack in their flagship vehicles.

In 2018, who would have guessed that the 2020 MS and MX would have an inferior battery technology to the M3? If I had a $100k MS, I think it would be annoying to see an M3, costing 1/2 as much, hitting 1000 MPH charge rate next to me at a supercharger. I suppose knowing that i can go further between charges would help the sting some as I sit for the extra time after the M3 pulls away.

 

[rxlawdude]

I'd be surprised to see a new battery in the MY soon. It's been a few years since Tesla's last battery upgrade and they still haven't updated the old battery pack in their flagship vehicles.

In 2018, who would have guessed that the 2020 MS and MX would have an inferior battery technology to the M3? If I had a $100k MS, I think it would be annoying to see an M3, costing 1/2 as much, hitting 1000 MPH charge rate next to me at a supercharger. I suppose knowing that i can go further between charges would help the sting some as I sit for the extra time after the M3 pulls away.

One of the reasons I momentarily ordered a MS with my TSLA appreciation fund. I thought about it, realized the entertainment options in the S are only 1/3 screen, older battery technology and slower charging, and canceled it (all the time holding open my MY order).

I'm glad I didn't spend the extra $30K.

 

[Scooby24]

What I think would go VERY far with current and future owners is a promise that upgraded battery packs will be made available to all current vehicles with new battery technology where we get a prorated credit for recycling the existing pack and getting a return on the investment of upgrading to new packs with new tech, boosting range and/or performance while increasing the value of our vehicles and extending their lives.