To buy or not to buy

[steilkurve]

Hey all. Want to trade in my 17 X for an S LR. Prices are good now for inventory. Debating if I wait for HW4 which will likely means a custom order and not getting as good of a deal. On the other hand, while HW4 will likely provide a better FSD experience over time, I think it will still be quite a ways from the FSD we all imagined when it was first announced. So, do I upgrade now and save about $8K (CDN) or wait a few weeks/months and get the latest and greatest (along with software growing pains in all likelihood)? All thoughts welcome.

 

[DerbyDave]

Since the ultrasonic sensors on the bumpers were removed, and the radar also, the car cannot see a low object in the front, like a child playing in front of the car as you get in. The HW 4 will add HD motion radar, and at least 2 more cameras, including one low in front that can see children, pets, and curb blocks. All the cameras will have increased resolution. All cars built until the new release will be deemed "legacy" next year and not get newer features added. All Tesla's become legacy quickly anyway, so that really isn't a good reason not to buy one now.

 

[steilkurve]

Since the ultrasonic sensors on the bumpers were removed, and the radar also, the car cannot see a low object in the front, like a child playing in front of the car as you get in. The HW 4 will add HD motion radar, and at least 2 more cameras, including one low in front that can see children, pets, and curb blocks. All the cameras will have increased resolution. All cars built until the new release will be deemed "legacy" next year and not get newer features added. All Tesla's become legacy quickly anyway, so that really isn't a good reason not to buy one now.

Have the USS been removed from S and X yet? Thought I saw them on the inventory vehicles, tagged as 2023 models, on the lot.

 

[DerbyDave]

Have the USS been removed from S and X yet? Thought I saw them on the inventory vehicles, tagged as 2023 models, on the lot.

Maybe not yet. Tesla says they will be removing them "throughout 2023 on the Model X and S"

 

[WilliamG]

I would definitely wait if you can afford to. HW4 is looking like it’s going to solve some serious deficiencies.

 

[steilkurve]

I would definitely wait if you can afford to. HW4 is looking like it’s going to solve some serious deficiencies.

Appreciate the POV. That said, in fairness, wasn’t HW3 going to fix/make a lot of things better? Long time Tesla owner and a largely happy one at that but given past experiences, I do take the promise of future functionality delivered by new hardware with a grain of salt. I first paid for the premium self driving feature back in 2015! Took quite a bit of time to come to life… That’s really why I’m hesitating. Buy now and get a better deal or wait and pay more for functionality that may or may not come and potentially some growing pains as they refine software.

 

[xanthic]

Maybe not yet. Tesla says they will be removing them "throughout 2023 on the Model X and S"

As I understand it, they’re now gone with hw4.

“2023” VINs have been in cars since fall of 22, but somewhere in January is where the new hw started to build.

So inventory from Q4/22 is with USS

 

[SantaFeSpence]

If you intend on getting the FSD package, then I’d wait. If not, then take the deal now.

 

[steilkurve]

As I understand it, they’re now gone with hw4.

“2023” VINs have been in cars since fall of 22, but somewhere in January is where the new hw started to build.

So inventory from Q4/22 is with USS

This is helpful. So any new build happening now has HW4 is what the assumption is?

 

[WilliamG]

Appreciate the POV. That said, in fairness, wasn’t HW3 going to fix/make a lot of things better? Long time Tesla owner and a largely happy one at that but given past experiences, I do take the promise of future functionality delivered by new hardware with a grain of salt. I first paid for the premium self driving feature back in 2015! Took quite a bit of time to come to life… That’s really why I’m hesitating. Buy now and get a better deal or wait and pay more for functionality that may or may not come and potentially some growing pains as they refine software.

HW3 was just a computer upgrade. HW4 looks to be coming with some seriously needed camera upgrades/additions. Mark my words, - if this all pans out (and I've no reason to believe it won't - imminently), all our Model S/X refresh cars will become legacy, and their resale value will plummet. I sure as heck wouldn't purchase a 2021/2022/early 2023 Model S or X at this point.

 

[yamanote]

HW3 was just a computer upgrade. HW4 looks to be coming with some seriously needed camera upgrades/additions. Mark my words, - if this all pans out (and I've no reason to believe it won't - imminently), all our Model S/X refresh cars will become legacy, and their resale value will plummet. I sure as heck wouldn't purchase a 2021/2022/early 2023 Model S or X at this point.

I think this is being a touch pessimistic. The hardware will be superior of course but it remains to be seen how long it will take to see a marked difference in terms of real world performance, and how large that improvement will really be. The hardware alone isn't everything - if it was then my Lucid would already drive itself (it definitely doesn't, to say the least).

I've also been burnt too many times by the promise of improved hardware which never amounted to anything tangible. I made the mistake of taking a huge loss to trade in my 3 month old AP1 X for one of the first early AP2 cars with FSD and we all know how that turned out. The promise of FSD features departing from EAP in 3 months maybe, 6 months definitely, etc. I'd normally the first in line to trade in my car for new hardware but Tesla has given me many reasons to not believe it will pan out that smoothly.

 

[WilliamG]

I think this is being a touch pessimistic. The hardware will be superior of course but it remains to be seen how long it will take to see a marked difference in terms of real world performance, and how large that improvement will really be. The hardware alone isn't everything - if it was then my Lucid would already drive itself (it definitely doesn't, to say the least).

I've also been burnt too many times by the promise of improved hardware which never amounted to anything tangible. I made the mistake of taking a huge loss to trade in my 3 month old AP1 X for one of the first early AP2 cars with FSD and we all know how that turned out. The promise of FSD features departing from EAP in 3 months maybe, 6 months definitely, etc. I'd normally the first in line to trade in my car for new hardware but Tesla has given me many reasons to not believe it will pan out that smoothly.

I'd be very annoyed if I bought a car now, "knowing" the updated model is just a couple of weeks behind. Even if we discount HW4, I want those extra cameras, - they're invaluable. That's why many of us have installed front cameras ourselves!

 

[jsrawa]

I’ve thought about making the upgrade to the S from my 3 with the discounted “demos”. If the discount helps you purchase it more comfortably I think it’s worth it even knowing HW4 is coming. As others have said it always takes Tesla a while for new hardware to reach let alone surpass the old hardware, I think it will be a while before we see significant divergence in ability.

 

[TheWulf]

I'm strongly debating this now as well.

I don't care about HW4 because I don't care about FSD. However I've been watching the inventory for the last week since this has been announced and it's barely dwindling. In fact, they seem to keep adding more and more cars, at ever so slightly lower prices every few days!

The big question is: is there another, larger discount coming after Investor Day to move these out?

 

[jsrawa]

I'm strongly debating this now as well.

I don't care about HW4 because I don't care about FSD. However I've been watching the inventory for the last week since this has been announced and it's barely dwindling. In fact, they seem to keep adding more and more cars, at ever so slightly lower prices every few days!

The big question is: is there another, larger discount coming after Investor Day to move these out?

This is the gamble I’m taking, I think they are slowly moving all the inventory sitting on the lots to “demos”. I think we may see up to twice the discount right before or the day of/after investor day. Maybe I’m just hopeful though because for that price I would take the hit on not getting HW4 and be ok with the decision. I’m willing to see how the next week pans out, no rush.

 

[Nickos]

They just dropped prices by $2k today in California for new inventory...making just under $12k off which is too good of a deal to pass up as I don't use FSD, don't keep my cars (except my Land Cruiser) more than a couple years and I don't want to pay full whack for half baked HW4....long story short: I swapped my order today as while they may go down further, there are only a couple in CA that my wife likes so don't want to risk missing one of those given others are state/region locked.

 

[DerbyDave]

It is a good deal on a Tesla. Be happy with that and enjoy your car. What happens tomorrow could make the deal a bit better, or worse. No matter what, you got a good deal.

 

[Nickos]

It is a good deal on a Tesla. Be happy with that and enjoy your car. What happens tomorrow could make the deal a bit better, or worse. No matter what, you got a good deal.

Thanks! Best thing, other than just 6 miles on the ODO (Dec Build), is not the taking delivery or paying until March 4 so any reductions or major news on March 1 and I can pivot...

 

[jsrawa]

They just dropped prices by $2k today in California for new inventory...making just under $12k off which is too good of a deal to pass up as I don't use FSD, don't keep my cars (except my Land Cruiser) more than a couple years and I don't want to pay full whack for half baked HW4....long story short: I swapped my order today as while they may go down further, there are only a couple in CA that my wife likes so don't want to risk missing one of those given others are state/region locked.

Have they told anyone who has purchased one of these “demos” that they have to take delivery by X date? I wouldn’t be surprised if they are saying by March 1.

 

[Nickos]

Have they told anyone who has purchased one of these “demos” that they have to take delivery by X date? I wouldn’t be surprised if they are saying by March 1.

Agree, but not me, the delivery options were March 2, 3 or 4. I picked 4 as it's a Saturday and plan to give it a good look over but am hoping it's a good one.

I did see custom orders have been down all day for S and X, takes you straight to the inventory....seems they want them cleared and they are definitely moving in SoCal