Toyota 'Mirai' Fuel Cell Sedan

[RubberToe]

I think we will "officially" be in the end game when one of these two things happens: 1) Toyota stops selling the Mirai, 2) The Electrify America next tranche of $200m in spending leaves out FCV investment entirely.

EA deferred any FCV investment in the first round and said they would reevaluate for subsequent rounds. As battery EV sales dwarf FCV sales, the equation becomes even more grim. EA is the only entity that could pony up sufficient $ to keep the zombie alive.

When the end game comes, it will be interesting to see how long the hydrogen providers will keep the filling stations open when no more cars are being built. Someone is going to be losing a bunch of money, though it could be a sunk cost.

If the stations started closing, Toyota woywo look really bad with cars on the road with no place to gas up.

With the small number of FCVs on the road it's almost a non story, unless you own one. Maybe they collect all the leased cars up like GM did with the EV1?

In the interim, websites will continue writing stories about Tesla's massive failure in only producing 3,000 Model 3s per week.

RT

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I think we will "officially" be in the end game when one of these two things happens: 1) Toyota stops selling the Mirai, 2) The Electrify America next tranche of $200m in spending leaves out FCV investment entirely.

EA deferred any FCV investment in the first round and said they would reevaluate for subsequent rounds. As battery EV sales dwarf FCV sales, the equation becomes even more grim. EA is the only entity that could pony up sufficient $ to keep the zombie alive.

When the end game comes, it will be interesting to see how long the hydrogen providers will keep the filling stations open when no more cars are being built. Someone is going to be losing a bunch of money, though it could be a sunk cost.

If the stations started closing, Toyota woywo look really bad with cars on the road with no place to gas up.

With the small number of FCVs on the road it's almost a non story, unless you own one. Maybe they collect all the leased cars up like GM did with the EV1?

In the interim, websites will continue writing stories about Tesla's massive failure in only producing 3,000 Model 3s per week.

RT

Month	HFCV	PHEV	BEV	HEV	HFCV/PEV	PEV/HEV
May 2018	151	11236	12996	31918	0.62%	75.92%
April 2018	247	9807	9589	25019	1.27%	77.53%
March 2018	204	10882	14480	28518	0.80%	88.93%
February 2018	416	8152	8344	24900	2.52%	66.25%
January 2018	270	5800	6085	22017	2.27%	53.98%
December 2017	297	10190	14959	32817	1.18%	76.63%

If Tesla overcomes the production problems for Model 3, it's just going to make the difference more stark. Not only that, it'd push PEV over HEV as well.
(The early 2018 "boost" for HFCV was due to the release of the new Clarity).

 

[Candleflame]

i think that fuel cell cars are already a bit bummed. they get worse range than EVs, DC fast charging is approaching hydrogen refuel speed and these days its vastly more easy to charge your EV then to find a hydrogen station. i can see hydrogen having perhaps a small role for boats or lorrys but not personal vehicles...

 

[Chickenlittle]

Toyota is using human waste to power its new electric car

Making Hydrogen from Sewage. So that could be the Big Break then?

Except that "... microorganisms break down the solid waste, creating biogas, about 60% methane and 40% carbon dioxide. Then, workers filter out the CO₂ and add water vapor, which creates hydrogen and more CO₂. They extract the CO₂ again, and voila: pure hydrogen."

Why not just stop at Methane and stick that into the gas pipeline - instead of spending more money scrubbing more CO2 out of the final process? But I'm no Chemist, maybe making Hydrogen via this route is better/more useful than making Methane?

I thought the link was referring to shorts

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

i think that fuel cell cars are already a bit bummed. they get worse range than EVs, DC fast charging is approaching hydrogen refuel speed and these days its vastly more easy to charge your EV then to find a hydrogen station. i can see hydrogen having perhaps a small role for boats or lorrys but not personal vehicles...

Current HFCV are also not quick. Not ultra slow, just not quick. Many BEVs are quick, because once you have the battery for range, you also have power available. Many PHEVs are quick. because they can add engine power to provide it.

Maybe HFCV not being quick is just a constraint of the technology, or maybe they don't want to risk building a fast HFCV, but when a car is both expensive and slow, the market is going to be more limited.

As you did, people often seem to say of HFCV that "well, maybe it'll do the things that BEV can't do", but the reality is that HFCV faces the same cost challenges for large vehicles as small vehicles, so in order to be used for larger vehicles the technology costs would have to be reduced in the same way. In fact, perhaps even more so because BEV's more technically challenging markets are largely cost-driven commercial use. Even Nikola's truck would be a plug-in with a sizable battery.

Advances in batteries and power electronics, and the successful use of hybrid drivetrains (ironically for the Mirai) not only provided an easier route to compliance vehicles, but have allowed authorities to ramp up the mandates. Not only are sales of HFCVs already low compared to PEVs, but PEV, and BEV In particular, is scaling up, with mandated sales at least to quintuple by 2025.

But, more than that, further battery improvements and cost reductions are expected before and by 2025 that will not only make BEV TCO lower than ICEV by 2025 in many market segments, including in commercial use, but will open up a massive static storage market, leading to industry scale far beyond the effect of the mandates. Compounding the challenge, further cost reductions are expected in renewable electricity that would combine with cheap batteries to lower the cost of electricity, which would help lower the TCO of PEVs.

With even optimistic projections for HFCV not seeing significant opportunity to scale before 2025, it's going to be trying scale in a market in which cheaper PEV is already relieving regulatory pressures, and the greatest irony is that even if HFCV can become cost-competitive with ICEV, by the time it does, it might not be good enough.

 

[renim]

I think we will "officially" be in the end game when one of these two things happens: 1) Toyota stops selling the Mirai, 2) The Electrify America next tranche of $200m in spending leaves out FCV investment entirely.

....

there never was an end game, not even a mid game, not really an opening.
In chess H2 is worse than a 'scholars' mate, (AKA fool's checkmate)

Hydrogen did to itself a 4 move checkmate

• 700 bar creates crazy cost for infrastructure, can not safety fast refill 700 bar with out cryogenic cooling, cooled hydrogen is simply bad bad bad for embrittlement of metal.
• no electric plug, stupid stupid stupid, doing 90% of charging at home eliminates over 90% of the cost of infrastructure, inter city infrastructure is much cheaper than intra city infrastructure, particularly with the safety issue of hydrogen.
• requiring 'zero' emission hydrogen fuel. seriously retarded, h2 is most efficiency derived direct from a fossil fuel, electricity is best sent straight to a battery, its about a 3 to 1 ratio in efficiency difference.
• over-sizing the hydrogen fuel cell power output/under-sizing the battery. take a 15-30kWh PHEV, give it a 5kW fuel cell, trickle charge while driving and it will basically do 8 hours driving, trying to give it a 100kW fuel cell is stupidly costly when 1/20 is all that is needed with rechargeable battery.

could hydrogen be a vehicle solution? yes, but only with each of those 4 conditions removed. particularly the 700 bar stupidity and under-sizing the battery!!!

update this with a 33kWH Kangoo and 7-22kW AC charging, use waste H2 from industrial applications, and a viable solution may come into existence.

 

[WannabeOwner]

Why, in image panel #2, does the H2 has negligible difference for +20C / -5C whereas the battery, as expect, has a big difference? I'm probably being thick!

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

there never was an end game, not even a mid game, not really an opening.
In chess H2 is worse than a 'scholars' mate, (AKA fool's checkmate)

Hydrogen did to itself a 4 move checkmate

• 700 bar creates crazy cost for infrastructure, can not safety fast refill 700 bar with out cryogenic cooling, cooled hydrogen is simply bad bad bad for embrittlement of metal.
• no electric plug, stupid stupid stupid, doing 90% of charging at home eliminates over 90% of the cost of infrastructure, inter city infrastructure is much cheaper than intra city infrastructure, particularly with the safety issue of hydrogen.
• requiring 'zero' emission hydrogen fuel. seriously retarded, h2 is most efficiency derived direct from a fossil fuel, electricity is best sent straight to a battery, its about a 3 to 1 ratio in efficiency difference.
• over-sizing the hydrogen fuel cell power output/under-sizing the battery. take a 15-30kWh PHEV, give it a 5kW fuel cell, trickle charge while driving and it will basically do 8 hours driving, trying to give it a 100kW fuel cell is stupidly costly when 1/20 is all that is needed with rechargeable battery.

could hydrogen be a vehicle solution? yes, but only with each of those 4 conditions removed. particularly the 700 bar stupidity and under-sizing the battery!!!
...
update this with a 33kWH Kangoo and 7-22kW AC charging, use waste H2 from industrial applications, and a viable solution may come into existence.

I think PHFCV is a possible avenue if the cell can be relatively cheap, even if the fuel itself is still quite expensive. But for that to work:
- the vehicle would need to be a near-EREV so that the fuel cell would be a REx, avoiding use where the battery is sufficient.
- the cell should be sized for heating. One of the "benefits" of fuel cells is that they generate a lot of waste heat. So it would make sense to size them for use as combined heat and power in a way that would take the heating load off the battery. So it might be a little more than a 5kW cell required.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Why, in image panel #2, does the H2 has negligible difference for +20C / -5C whereas the battery, as expect, has a big difference? I'm probably being thick!

Because it makes hydrogen look good? I don't think it has much basis in reality.

(Also, the scaling on the graph is misleading. It starts at 80 km and it's quasi-logaritimic, it seems. The graph doesn't even agree with the text - showing less than 300 km range in the last two situations with the hydrogen version.)

 

[Candleflame]

there never was an end game, not even a mid game, not really an opening.
In chess H2 is worse than a 'scholars' mate, (AKA fool's checkmate)

Hydrogen did to itself a 4 move checkmate

• 700 bar creates crazy cost for infrastructure, can not safety fast refill 700 bar with out cryogenic cooling, cooled hydrogen is simply bad bad bad for embrittlement of metal.
• no electric plug, stupid stupid stupid, doing 90% of charging at home eliminates over 90% of the cost of infrastructure, inter city infrastructure is much cheaper than intra city infrastructure, particularly with the safety issue of hydrogen.
• requiring 'zero' emission hydrogen fuel. seriously retarded, h2 is most efficiency derived direct from a fossil fuel, electricity is best sent straight to a battery, its about a 3 to 1 ratio in efficiency difference.
• over-sizing the hydrogen fuel cell power output/under-sizing the battery. take a 15-30kWh PHEV, give it a 5kW fuel cell, trickle charge while driving and it will basically do 8 hours driving, trying to give it a 100kW fuel cell is stupidly costly when 1/20 is all that is needed with rechargeable battery.

could hydrogen be a vehicle solution? yes, but only with each of those 4 conditions removed. particularly the 700 bar stupidity and under-sizing the battery!!!
View attachment 310574
update this with a 33kWH Kangoo and 7-22kW AC charging, use waste H2 from industrial applications, and a viable solution may come into existence.

yeah 5-10min for 200km. If they use the same very conservative measure the EPA/Tesla uses we are looking at roughly twice supercharging speed. so really not that much.

 

[WannabeOwner]

I don't think it has much basis in reality.

Well paint me "shocked"

 

[renim]

Renault-Nissan stops investment in fuel cell vehicles
Google Translate
Original Article: 燃料電池車　日産、ダイムラーなどとの商用化凍結 (Japanese)

FCV future is getting darker further.

Ford says fuel cell venture with Daimler will close
"Ford says fuel cell venture with Daimler will close"
...."Daimler Chief Executive Dieter Zetsche earlier this year indicated that the German automaker was shifting its focus toward battery-electric vehicles."

for hydrogen, what path Nissan decides, Daimler and Ford follow

 

[EV_enthu_jp]

Audi, Hyundai to Join Forces to Push Fuel-Cell Technology

The partnership between one of the world’s biggest automakers and Audi, the third-biggest luxury carmaker, will help boost interest among policy makers, Hyundai’s head of fuel cell research Kim Sae-hoon said in an interview.
This will help drive investment in infrastructure and broaden appeal.

The FCV investments continue to grow for the future.

Yoshi@Japan

 

[JohnSnowNW]

Audi, Hyundai to Join Forces to Push Fuel-Cell Technology

The FCV investments continue to grow for the future.

Yoshi@Japan

Honestly, I can't believe Hyundai's comments. They're producing less than 4k/yr of their Nexo FCEV...I can't see that instilling confidence, regardless of who shows interest in the tech.

 

[S'toon]

Toyota remain in denial.

Toyota is upping its production capacity for hydrogen-powered cars after the company announced that it expects hydrogen car sales to increase ten-fold from 2020.

Whereas global sales of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles currently stand at around 3,000 a year, Toyota has said that it expects more than 30,000 hydrogen vehicles to be sold annually during the 2020s.

As a result, the company has unveiled plans for two new factories in Japan, which will build fuel cell stacks and high-pressure hydrogen tanks.

Production of the company’s fuel cells for its hydrogen-powered cars will move to a new eight-floor facility situated in the Japanese firm’s Honsha plant, near Nagoya, while the tanks will be built in the nearby Shimoya factory.

Construction is already underway, with the Honsha facility awaiting its interior fitting while the Shimoya plant is still being built. Both factories are expected to open around 2020.

<snip>

Full article at:
Toyota Optimistically Predicts 30,000 Fuel Cell Sales Per Year By 2020

I think they're stuck in the "But we've spent so much money we can't stop now!" trap.

I know the Japanese want to use the 2020 Olympics as a showcase to "prove" to the world the "superiority" of hydrogen. I just can't see the entire industry imploding by then.

 

[RubberToe]

Toyota says mass production of fuel cell vehicles coming soon:

Toyota Claims Mass Production Of Fuel Cell Vehicles Will Start Soon

 

[jelloslug]

Toyota says mass production of fuel cell vehicles coming soon:

Toyota Claims Mass Production Of Fuel Cell Vehicles Will Start Soon

The perpetual “just around the corner”

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Toyota remain in denial.

Full article at:
Toyota Optimistically Predicts 30,000 Fuel Cell Sales Per Year By 2020

I think they're stuck in the "But we've spent so much money we can't stop now!" trap.

Sunk cost fallacy
Sunk cost - Wikipedia

 

[Ed Hart]

Many of us believe that the horrifically large grills on the front of the current Tesla/Toyota models is preparing us for hydrogen versions of the entire line. This is very risky; I know a few people who are leaving the Lexus brand because they are simply turned off by the big grills. What do others think about this styling?

 

[nwdiver]

Audi, Hyundai to Join Forces to Push Fuel-Cell Technology

The FCV investments continue to grow for the future.

Yoshi@Japan

Is there a plan to break physics? Or are the FCVs going to be absurdly inefficient....