Toyota's confusion

[lookmtb]

So quck background, I work for a Japanese automotive supplier.

Something that I am reminded of when reading this article, is that Japanese culture is very risk avoidance in nature. In general they move slowly when it comes to change. You can see this on their cars. Design changes are on a 3-5 year cycle and even still my Tacoma uses technology from the 90's that other manufactures have moved away from (example: Hydraulic radiator fans).

I agree with what others have written here. from their perspective why invest now? yes the model 3 is a hit (in comparison to other EV's) but we still don't know what the limit of demand is for the car. Maybe Tesla can't sell any more (I doubt that to be true, but devils advocate). Better battery tech could be coming in the next 5 years that makes billions of dollars of investment worth it.

Small tinfoil hat comment: As far as I know, the US govt subsidizes "alternative fuel" vehicles. I've always felt they do the minimum with fuel cell tech to collect this.

 

[RayK]

Maybe Toyota has too much invested in the Mirai fuel cell car. I'm not that far from the California Fuel Cell Partnership and I've yet to see any Mirai cars on the road and they would be hard to miss.

There's a couple I see here in San Jose during my commute to work. Followed one this morning actually. Funny to get behind one and see it pissing on the road a couple of times a minute.

 

[coleAK]

So quck background, I work for a Japanese automotive supplier.

Something that I am reminded of when reading this article, is that Japanese culture is very risk avoidance in nature. In general they move slowly when it comes to change. You can see this on their cars. Design changes are on a 3-5 year cycle and even still my Tacoma uses technology from the 90's that other manufactures have moved away from (example: Hydraulic radiator fans).

I agree with what others have written here. from their perspective why invest now? yes the model 3 is a hit (in comparison to other EV's) but we still don't know what the limit of demand is for the car. Maybe Tesla can't sell any more (I doubt that to be true, but devils advocate). Better battery tech could be coming in the next 5 years that makes billions of dollars of investment worth it.

Small tinfoil hat comment: As far as I know, the US govt subsidizes "alternative fuel" vehicles. I've always felt they do the minimum with fuel cell tech to collect this.

I totally agree. I’ve been a loyal Toyota enthusiast for almost 30 years. Over that time I’ve primarily driven 4 cars and 3 of them were land cruisers (60, 80, and now a LX570 and the odd man out a g500, my wife is another story...) overall Toyota is thoughtful, slow, and conservative when it comes to change. The current 200 series land cruiser is pretty much unchanged since its 2007 intro and is going to go through at least 2021.

 

[chronopc]

I totally agree. I’ve been a loyal Toyota enthusiast for almost 30 years. Over that time I’ve primarily driven 4 cars and 3 of them were land cruisers (60, 80, and now a LX570 and the odd man out a g500, my wife is another story...) overall Toyota is thoughtful, slow, and conservative when it comes to change. The current 200 series land cruiser is pretty much unchanged since its 2007 intro and is going to go through at least 2021.

Before my Model 3, I've only driven Toyota and Honda for their value and reliability. If Toyota produced an EV version of the Camry, it would see like hotcakes.

 

[Knightshade]

I find their stance on batteries surprising given how early they were in adoption hybrids.

That's actually one of the reasons for it.

They invested in NiMH and then kept using it for 15 years, meaning they'd long been able to recoup the investment.

They're not expecting anything they'd dump a ton of investment into now, EV battery wise, to have that long a life cycle because things are moving fast.

 

[chronopc]

That's actually one of the reasons for it.

They invested in NiMH and then kept using it for 15 years, meaning they'd long been able to recoup the investment.

They're not expecting anything they'd dump a ton of investment into now, EV battery wise, to have that long a life cycle because things are moving fast.

I'm sure in the future they can just buy batteries for their EVs from another company. I'm sure Tesla will be willing to sell once they can produce enough.

 

[VT_EE]

.....just to add, if Nissan were able to sell the first generation Leaf despite its pretty hideous styling, short range and dull performance, then imagine how well a desirable long range EV like the M3 should sell? Even the relative success of their own fugly looking Prius should have been a good clue!

The Model 3 was made for European roads (except maybe some of the UK's single track "roads"). You guys are going to love it!

 

[EinSV]

I love these two statements from the original article in Ward's Auto:

And while sales of BEVs ... did grow in 2018 – 103.7% to 208,573 units – the growth was almost entirely Tesla.

"There’s not much growth in that industry,” Lentz says.

Um, what???

Toyota’s Lentz Worries Industry ‘Over-Stimulated’ on EVs, Tesla Is New Category

 

[SageBrush]

Toyota is a global company, a leader in every country around the world. The number of countries that have electric car infrastructure is, well, a tiny number. When will it be credible to use electric cars in, say, Brazil?

For the vast number of countries in the world, it really is unlikely that they will have a robust electric car infrastructure anytime in the next 25 or 30 years. Toyota is right that in the majority of the world electric cars are unlikely to make a dent anytime soon.

Tesla is right to focus on electric cars and bring the US and Europe there. Toyota is also right that the second world isn't going to get it done, and something else may be needed. I strongly doubt there hydrogen push is going to go anywhere, but really electric isn't either in those countries.

When EVs come down in price they will slot in perfectly with local distributed generation. Toyota has a business case for the near future but the paradigm of fossil cars and centralized electricity production is crashing down fast, particularly in the less developed countries.

 

[SageBrush]

Japanese culture is very risk avoidance in nature.

Explain the Toyota hybrid. Explain the Honda hybrid.

 

[chronopc]

I love these two statements from the original article in Ward's Auto:

And while sales of BEVs ... did grow in 2018 – 103.7% to 208,573 units – the growth was almost entirely Tesla.

"There’s not much growth in that industry,” Lentz says.

Um, what???

Toyota’s Lentz Worries Industry ‘Over-Stimulated’ on EVs, Tesla Is New Category

The way I read that is people are only buying EVs made by Tesla, so if you're not Tesla don't bother producing EVs.

 

[Knightshade]

I love these two statements from the original article in Ward's Auto:

And while sales of BEVs ... did grow in 2018 – 103.7% to 208,573 units – the growth was almost entirely Tesla.

"There’s not much growth in that industry,” Lentz says.

Um, what???

Toyota sold over 10,000,000 cars last year.

So a difference of 100k cars is barely more than a rounding error to them.

 

[chronopc]

Toyota sold over 10,000,000 cars last year.

So a difference of 100k cars is barely more than a rounding error to them.

In terms of the US market 100k cars is pretty significant. I believe Toyota sells about 2 million in the US.

 

[SageBrush]

In terms of the US market 100k cars is pretty significant. I believe Toyota sells about 2 million in the US.

Right. And manufacturers are entirely dependent on the last few percent of sales for their profit. Up to then they are covering fixed costs.
Incidentally, this is why Tesla cannot produce the Model 3 SR until they stabilize at 10k a week production

 

[EinSV]

Lentz's statement that there was "not much growth" in EVs was just goofy, considering EV sales growth was over 100% YoY.

And Tesla's sales volume was also significant, even by Toyota standards.

The Model 3 outsold every single Toyota passenger car in the US by revenue in the second half of the year (including Camry, Corolla and every Lexus). In fact, it outsold every passenger car in the US from every manufacturer by revenue.

In Q3 Model 3 US revenue was nearly double Camry US revenue. Tesla Model 3 Is Best Selling Car In USA In Terms Of Revenue (Again), Nearly Double #2 Toyota Camry's Revenue — #CleanTechnica Report | CleanTechnica Since Model 3 sales increased in Q4 the same is probably true for Q4 as well.

So Tesla sales are not only growing extremely fast but they are already at levels that are significant, even by Toyota standards. In fact, the Model 3 is beating the pants off Toyota's top selling sedan for revenue generation in the US (Lentz's territory).

 

[ricohman]

I totally agree. I’ve been a loyal Toyota enthusiast for almost 30 years. Over that time I’ve primarily driven 4 cars and 3 of them were land cruisers (60, 80, and now a LX570 and the odd man out a g500, my wife is another story...) overall Toyota is thoughtful, slow, and conservative when it comes to change. The current 200 series land cruiser is pretty much unchanged since its 2007 intro and is going to go through at least 2021.

My old FJ40 has over 600,000 miles.
And it has seen hard use. Toyota can build some seriously durable machines.

 

[SageBrush]

Toyota can build some seriously durable machines.

It's too bad that the Brit TV show 'Top Gear' turned into such a sh1tshow but they produced one of my all time favorite shows:

 

[coleAK]

My old FJ40 has over 600,000 miles.
And it has seen hard use. Toyota can build some seriously durable machines.View attachment 369996

Nice rig! My J60 had 380k miles when I sold it to get the 80. I regret getting rid of my 80.

 

[jcal0820]

Giving credit where it's due, if it weren't for the Prius and it's proven engineering/durability rep for the past 20 years, Tesla, and EVs in general, may never had a chance.

 

[jcal0820]

..& just found this article. Toyota starting to go in long term on the EV market space?


Panasonic looks beyond Tesla, signs Toyota partnership on electric car battery venture in 2020