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Tracking P85D delivery thread
- Thread starter andrewket
- Start date
Scothawk
Member
This is starting to bum me out. Several other Minneapolis deliveries with VIN's for P85D for a few days now, who ordered on the same date as me or after....grrrr 
C'mon tesla I gave up my P85 already, I'm in withdrawal having to drive an ICE car!!
C'mon tesla I gave up my P85 already, I'm in withdrawal having to drive an ICE car!!
Oops. I also linked to the article because I missed your post when the pages changed.
I added the charts and was thinking of going back and changing the colors to match the data and saw that you already did it. Nice to see someone who is as anal as I am about that sort of thing.
I concussed my head a few weeks ago and am still recovering from it. One of the tests that I take to measure my improvement uses spelled out names of colors, some of which match the color stated, and others that don't. When I first started taking the test, seeing BLUE and RED caused my brain to implode. So I had to change it
MarcG
Active Member
Quick update on my end, given that I'm the first non-Canadian VIN and live very close to the factory.
I just spoke to an inside delivery member and his information currently shows that production will start in late-November/early-December, with about 10 days to completion per P85D.
So the earliest any P85D will be leaving the factory is the first or second week of December.
So far, the earliest delivery date anyone on this thread has received is December 11th for "gpetti" who lives in Calgary, Canada.
If they produce about 100 VINs in the same week, I hope to get mine delivered around that time as well.
Will keep you posted as soon as I get a better delivery estimate than "December", but this specialist I spoke to at Tesla HQ said "most likely by mid-December".
BTW I still don't have a DS assigned to me, but that's probably expected since I just ordered a week ago.
I just spoke to an inside delivery member and his information currently shows that production will start in late-November/early-December, with about 10 days to completion per P85D.
So the earliest any P85D will be leaving the factory is the first or second week of December.
So far, the earliest delivery date anyone on this thread has received is December 11th for "gpetti" who lives in Calgary, Canada.
If they produce about 100 VINs in the same week, I hope to get mine delivered around that time as well.
Will keep you posted as soon as I get a better delivery estimate than "December", but this specialist I spoke to at Tesla HQ said "most likely by mid-December".
BTW I still don't have a DS assigned to me, but that's probably expected since I just ordered a week ago.
To add a little more information to what MarcG said, my DS was assigned to me about 2 weeks ago. Having said that, I still don't have a VIN assigned (ordered and confirmed on 10/10).
My DS indicated that I can expect delivery in Houston the week of Dec. 22nd (along with all the caveats that that date is subject to change).
My DS indicated that I can expect delivery in Houston the week of Dec. 22nd (along with all the caveats that that date is subject to change).
MarcG
Active Member
Congrats, that's great news! Given that your VIN is in the 63400's, this bodes well for the 630XX also starting production late-Nov.
The next question being: does Tesla actually manufacture the Model S in order following VINs?
I have actually spent quite a lot of time collecting data from the massive VIN update thread stickied at the top of the forum and I'm going say that the answer is No. If you collect a lot of data, it is quite clear that there is a pretty strong correlation between VIN and the day that a particular vehicle goes into production, but I have found quite a number of instances where a car with a lower VIN went into production several days later, including at least two cases where the person with the lower VIN was bemoaning the fact that his car was still not showing "In Production." The consensus view appears to be that the message indicating that production has begun is automated, so I think there is pretty definitive evidence that not all cars are built in VIN order. I know from information I was told on a tour of the Ford Rouge factory that it is important to stagger different interior and performance options to avoid bottlenecks at certain stations of the production process and that they might want to group cars together to efficiently tie into supplies that they have on hand (particular leather seats, for instance) or even to make the staging of their shipping process more efficient. I don't know that they do this for those reasons, but I know for sure that they don't always follow VIN order on a 1, 2, 3, 4 basis.
However, if you did a correlation coefficient, you would find that VIN number is very strongly associated with production and if you forced me to make a bet on any two cars, I'd be happy to bet on the lower VIN and I'm pretty sure I'd win more than I'd lose. Delivery time is extremely variable and people located far away from the factory obviously have a much longer delay between build and delivery than people who can pick it up in Freemont.
In this thread you can see tons of examples of "out of order" production.
MarcG
Active Member
Thanks for the detailed info LetsGoFast. Totally understand the need to stagger production based on component availability, plus Tesla's region-based and model-based production directives.
I guess I should then rephrase my question to: will Tesla manufacture the P85D specifically in VIN order? I guess only time will tell.
Andrew, would it be possible to add a column next to VIN labeled "Entered production date"? Thanks.
I guess I should then rephrase my question to: will Tesla manufacture the P85D specifically in VIN order? I guess only time will tell.
Andrew, would it be possible to add a column next to VIN labeled "Entered production date"? Thanks.
To the point we were just discussing, I just got off the phone with my DS and he said that he thought my car would go into production "around" Dec 1 and arrive two weeks later. My personal wish list is that it shows up in time for a 12/13 pickup, because that next week is going to be very difficult timing if I have to get it then. My VIN is 63142. He did confirm that my request to switch from the grey leather to the black was accepted by the factory and that it would absolutely arrive that way when I got it. I'm almost entirely obsessed with Teslas right now.
My current thought is to replace "re-confirmed date" with "entered production date". Based on the data we have, it does not appear as if the re-confirmed date had any bearing on build order, and therefore is useless to track. Anyone else have an opinion on this change?
Andyw2100
Well-Known Member
Is there any upside / downside to having a 2014 vs. a 2015? My gut would tell me that for resale purposes, etc., it would sound better to be able to call my car a 2015, but perhaps I am mistaken. I still don't have a VIN, so now I'm wondering if I should be hoping that my car winds up officially being a 2015 instead of a 2014. Is this just me trying to make lemonade from lemons?
Also when you say Tesla changes the model year on January 1st, what exactly does that mean? Cars that begin production after that date are 2015s or cars that end production after that date are 2015s or cars that are delivered after that date are 2015s? You mention something about VINs assigned at the beginning of December may be decoding to 2015s, but I'm not sure what your thoughts are with respect to when those cars would be produced / delivered.
Thanks!
There may be some small value from a resale perspective to have a 2015 over a 2014, not because of Tesla, but because other manufacturer's generally make changes between model years. The common accepted idea is that a later model year is "better" than an earlier year. This isn't true for Tesla; as recently stated by Elon Tesla makes changes every week. A December 2014 P85D build will be mostly the same as a January 2015 build, which Tesla will call a 2015 Model S. Any changes are likely to be not obvious. A February 2015 build may have minor differences compared to a January 2015 build, etc.
To your second question, if Tesla does the same thing as they did last year, a car that begins assembly after January 1st will be a 2015. Since VINs are assigned approximately 30 days before assembly begins, I expect we'll start to see 2015 VINs issued the first week of December.
MarcG
Active Member
Good idea, go for it! Thanks for maintaining this spreadsheet; it is much appreciated.
Scothawk
Member
Cottonwood
Roadster#433, Model S#S37
I would not delete any data. It may be useful later. Just add another column for the additional data.
I got an e-mail from Fremont stating that my P85D should be ready for delivery in the "first half of December" in Colorado, but I still do not have a VIN.
I don't have a VIN yet either. But I am paying Tesla back for not yet issuing me a VIN by checking the website every minute or so for going on 2 days now...
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