Ah, I misread your post. Yes, I agree now (with the statement that at $750 it seemed like the upward buying interest was too high to be stopped).
Any thoughts on tomorrow/monday? Many here see MM push us down or flat tomorrow, but expect a rise next monday. What's your take on the matter? Opening of GF3 doesn't seem very "bullish" to me since this is not news anymore and is priced in.
ReflexFunds' post in the main thread yesterday reflects my thoughts quite well.
I'm not super confident whether the drop late on Tuesday was a form of profit taking, or whether manipulations were involved, but I think the pre-market in both EU and US on Wednesday was extremely suspicious. Combined with today's trading where, surprise surprise, we ended up at exactly max pain, it seems very likely manipulations are very heavy right now.
Also, if ReflexFunds' calculations are correct (to which there are some caveats), the net shares in the hands of market makers used for delta hedging decreased from Friday's close to Wednesday's close, yet the SP rose ~10%, and it seems quite plausible that short interest increased (at least since the peak at $960). So there's a good chance the float has further contracted.
Furthermore, it seems like no large sellers materialized all the way up to $960, but it does seem like there are a lot of people willing to buy in the $600s at least, and perhaps $700s as well.
All in all, it seems like a huge, ever-increasing portion of the shares is in the hands of longs that are not willing to sell until at least $960, possibly much higher prices, but there is large buying pressure in the $600s, perhaps even $700s, due to Tesla's increased perceived valuation as of late.
The small float + huge delta hedging needs within this small float, seem to create massive volatility and fluctuations within that bottom of the range ($600? $700?) where there is large buying pressure, and a yet to be defined top of the range that appears to be at at least $950-$1000.
I'd think that the market makers are using a lot of 'ammunition' this week to keep the stock near max pain. I'm somewhat surprised they managed to do so actually, but I'd imagine they'll need to cover some of these positions come next week, which in combination with a further contracted float (if ReflexFunds' calculations are accurate), should lead to even more volatility upwards.
Big news/bad macros could change this, but barring that, if all this is correct (which it may not be), I think we might test once again at what point traders are going to take profits and/or natural buyers materialize. Whether that is somewhere in the $900s again, or this time higher into the $1000s, I don't think anyone can predict.
Just my thoughts/observations. Things may go very differently.