trading

[EVNow]

IV in the 60% range might be underpricing volatility given the ability of P&D to move the stock, don't you think? I'm considering opening a small straddle position.

Depends on how much you think the SP could move. It needs to move by $20 to double the call/put price, with a big drop in IV. That would just break-even on a straddle.

I was considering 430 call and 410 put on 31st. The IV has actually gone up from 31st. With the SP up about $8, here is what I see.

410 put - down 2.77
430 call - up 1.86

So, with IV up, its still a loss.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Depends on how much you think the SP could move. It needs to move by $20 to double the call/put price, with a big drop in IV. That would just break-even on a straddle.

I was considering 430 call and 410 put on 31st. The IV has actually gone up from 31st. With the SP up about $8, here is what I see.

410 put - down 2.77
430 call - up 1.86

So, with IV up, its still a loss.

Q4 '18 P&D moved the stock $26 down; Q1 '19 moved the stock $30 down. There was obviously a ton of shorting put into those movements - big question as to whether there is that same appetite here and if sufficient buying pressure would stave off a big movement.

Q2 '19 and Q3 '19 P&D reports had smaller impacts -- up $10 and down $12, respectively. The report could very well come in right at 105-108k in-line with expectations and see very little movement at all.

At the moment, leaning towards a small lotto put position as a hedge against existing calls/stock.

 

[Boomer19]

i guess im the only one thats preparing myself mentally for a temp selloff, even if just a blip on the LT radar..
this seems too good to be true to me...

edit - yes im with cherrywine

i have a few puts just to see if they pick me up 1-2k

i took some profits on mar 300s as well

Im just too concentrated in tesla to not take those gains, and half the concentration was options. (a nod to @Zhelko Dimic). i still have plenty left on table, may add new calls if we get a better opportunity than now

as of now, the plan is to hold and exercise some far out DITM calls in jan21 and june 21 to add to core position - but who the hell knows what will be going on next jan-jun

 

[Cherry Wine]

So I have elected to open some $420/$410 put positions expiring tomorrow as a hedge against held calls/stock. Hopefully P&D doesn't come out after market close on Friday! (Although if it doesn't come out tomorrow morning the stock will probably drop anyway.)

 

[EVNow]

i took some profits on mar 300s as well

May would be a good expiration date to own. After Q1 report. If its decent we should see a big movement up.

 

[EVNow]

Depends on how much you think the SP could move. It needs to move by $20 to double the call/put price, with a big drop in IV. That would just break-even on a straddle.

I was considering 430 call and 410 put on 31st. The IV has actually gone up from 31st. With the SP up about $8, here is what I see.

410 put - down 2.77
430 call - up 1.86

So, with IV up, its still a loss.

I should note the day ended with IV around 74%. So would have been a good idea to buy some calls in the morning to sell off before close.

410 put - down 2.97
430 call - up 3.83​

 

[Boomer19]

May would be a good expiration date to own. After Q1 report. If its decent we should see a big movement up.

may wasn't available when i rolled last Nov into Mar20, but agreed

obviously P&D will make up most of the earnings potential. but i still look for the quarter when TE starts to peek out from the shadows and the audience wakes up to its reality

maybe we pull back from these ATHs on P&D numbers, but sooner or later TE is going to make people notice, and it won't be just about P&D anymore, it'll be where's the power packs and solar roofs

i think we will get some opportunities for new call positions before that happens

 

[bdy0627]

I finally sold my March $420 calls near close today and used the funds to buy June $450s and J21 $500s plus more stock. My March calls would have dropped way too much if the stock pulls back on a P&D miss. If there is a miss, and I don't think there is, then I think we are likely to see $360s again for a retest of the breakout.

 

[defc0n]

Had to take profits after this pop due to the damn Iran situation even though I don't want to.

 

[defc0n]

Still have some shares just in case it gets more squeezy

 

[Boomer19]

we could see some instability with escalation w Iran

thoughts:
- MIC seems to have temporarily covered anything they can produce with sufficient demand
- this should carry some weight for Q1 quarterly, possibly cover any weakness elsewhere
- if MIC 3 can continue this until Y prod and deliv at enough volume, Q2 should be fine too
- if q3 reflects steady but plateauing MIC combined with ramping Y and continued S3X, we looking pretty good heading into Q4

lots of if's, and also election year, tensions, war, etc
positive if's include increased TE, some updated semi info, etc

if tesla executes trough these turbulent times and tsla can maintain range above 350 in the event of harsh market conditions, i think thats a huge success - and that strength will attract new buyers of all sizes, as they rotate away from weaker investments and gravitate to a winner that can weather the storm.

one can hope...it sounds good on paper - but we'll see

 

[Boomer19]

we could see some instability with escalation w Iran

thoughts:
- MIC seems to have temporarily covered anything they can produce with sufficient demand
- this should carry some weight for Q1 quarterly, possibly cover any weakness elsewhere
- if MIC 3 can continue this until Y prod and deliv at enough volume, Q2 should be fine too
- if q3 reflects steady but plateauing MIC combined with ramping Y and continued S3X, we looking pretty good heading into Q4

lots of if's, and also election year, tensions, war, etc
positive if's include increased TE, some updated semi info, etc

if tesla executes trough these turbulent times and tsla can maintain range above 350 in the event of harsh market conditions, i think thats a huge success - and that strength will attract new buyers of all sizes, as they rotate away from weaker investments and gravitate to a winner that can weather the storm.

one can hope...it sounds good on paper - but we'll see

IF (and a big one at that)
we get the above, AND a convergence of cash flow rotation due to
- S&P addition, AND IF
- TSLA being a strong player in rocky market

thats a double whammy, and where we can see a real squeeze up to 600-700

of course, all speculation. but again, it sounds good on paper.
gun to head, id guess maybe 10% chance of that happening in the next 14-15 months (post q4 earnings 2020)

again, just dreaming - not advice

 

[Cherry Wine]

Amazing P&D! Sold some $490 calls expiring 1/10 and bought some OTM puts, mainly as a small hedge against macros to protect my March calls that I want to ride into ER.

 

[defc0n]

Imagine what today could have been like without the military strike

 

[Cherry Wine]

Amazing P&D! Sold some $490 calls expiring 1/10 and bought some OTM puts, mainly as a small hedge against macros to protect my March calls that I want to ride into ER.

After the walk down in the afternoon I opened a debit spread and bought $470 calls at a nice discount banking on a pop next week. Not expecting them to end up ITM but it sure would be nice.

 

[FrankSG]

Does anybody here know when Jun'22 Options will come out?

 

[defc0n]

Bought back in since there appears to be some strength here still.

 

[jeewee3000]

Does anybody here know when Jun'22 Options will come out?

Should be this quarter. I can't be more specific than that, unfortunately.

 

[Cherry Wine]

After the walk down in the afternoon I opened a debit spread and bought $470 calls at a nice discount banking on a pop next week. Not expecting them to end up ITM but it sure would be nice.

Bought back the $490 calls and sold $475 calls to open a "free" bull spread with a max gain of $640 per spread at $475 or above.

 

[defc0n]

Took profits again, can't help myself.