Electricfan
Active Member
EV adoption took a step back in our family that day, because it showed my wife that you still need to "manage" your energy with significantly more care than in an ICE and it scares her a little bit. We were going from Miami to Orlando, and the plan was to charge at the Fort Drum Service Plaza on the Turnpike (160 miles). A full charge (255 rated) had been whittled down to 245 miles by stopping for a few supplies... but you'd think that 245 rated miles was enough to go 160 real miles without a problem.
Due to Turnpike speeds (limit is 70, most traffic is 75), A/C use, some rain, and heavy loading (four people plus bags), we were using about 420 Wh/mile. It looked like we'd arrive in Fort Drum with 18 rated miles left, about 7% charge, so I started slowing down (not what the family wanted to see, but hey) until projected reserve increased to 12%... and then we reached the back of the line. We sat in that line, gradually inching forward, for about 90 minutes by which time projected reserve was down to 5% (IIRC). I bailed at the first available exit and diverted to Port St. Lucie which was 40 miles closer but about 10 minutes off our track.
We were never close to actually running out of energy, but we did make arrive in Port St. Lucie with 50 miles of rated range, meaning we'd used 207 rated to drive roughly 140 real miles. That's a nearly 50% increase in consumption over rated miles... and though that happens in an ICE as well, you have to be more mathematically aware to really notice it. The significantly longer range of a gas tank hides that additional consumption if one isn't paying attention and doing the math.
And to my wife's eyes, it showed that EV's (even Teslas) have made marvelous advances (her words) but are not yet to the point where she feels comfortable switching. In particular, she's of the drive-til-you-get-there mindset and would far prefer to go from Miami to Orlando (230 miles) non-stop... and on either I-95 or the Turnpike, driving 62mph to make it non-stop makes you a nuisance, even a danger to others, on the highway. One more ICE for her while the technology continues to improve. I'll happily do the math, take the extra care, and switch to Model X.
I will add, though: I'd love to see a setting on the Trip screen where you select whether the consumption forecast is based on past history as it does now, or on some particular value you select. I'd set that sucker to 420 Wh/mile, aim for a 10% reserve, and be a happy camper.
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No, there's no flaw in the logic, it's just that you are highlighting the undesirable result of extrapolating to the extreme. Stating that it's not reasonable to do something that I am not doing, is to make a true but completely irrelevant statement.
Of course there is always the possibility that something else could go wrong and your strategy will not work. But risk management is not about driving the risk of failure to zero (can't be done anyway), but about reducing the probability (or mitigating the consequences) of an undesirable outcome to an acceptable level. Adding additional buffer reduces the probability that foreseeable risks will cause negative consequences for you. How much buffer to add, and how far to reduce the perceived probability of a negative outcome, is a personal choice. So I repeat: y'all go ahead and use small buffers if you like. I'm not comfortable with that.
I had a close call on my way back from FL on the long hop from Mobile to Baton Rouge. There was wreck and I had to get off the interstate and take back roads around it. The nav system decided to go nuts at the same time - it started warning me that "there is no charging station within range". I called Tesla and asked why it was doing that because I thought I still had the power to get to Baton Rouge - they told me to ignore it. It made it more exciting that it needed to be for sure. I got to BR with 40 miles left - I'm with you - I always pad a large cushion.
