I'll easily break this guys mileage record. I've been driving 1100+ miles/week on my P85.
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I'll easily break this guys mileage record. I've been driving 1100+ miles/week on my P85.
wow that is awesome !! how many miles are on it so far it you dont mind me asking? If these hold up as well as some have suggested then the contest will begin on who has put the most miles on their S
This poll indicates ~51% of Model S purchasers have an income of less than $200,000.
And this poll indicates that the Model S is the most expensive car ever purchased for ~84% of purchasers.
My conclusion is that that Tesla has widened the market for this class of car and a goodly portion of sales have come from folks, like me, who would never ever have considered a BMW5 series or higher (or the Audi/Mercedes equivalents).
The Model S is not just for the ultra-rich.
wow that is awesome !! how many miles are on it so far it you dont mind me asking? If these hold up as well as some have suggested then the contest will begin on who has put the most miles on their S
I picked the car up March 6th. I just switched over from driving (45 miles each way, so ~90 daily) + train + metro , to driving straight into the city (about 105 miles each way) last week on June 3rd. So from March 6th-June-3rd I had already accrued ~6800 miles. One week later "after the switch to 200miles/daily), today, I have 8100. It's going to start racking up real fast
Plus that doesn't include any weekend driving. It's likely to actually be higher (probably more like 1200-1400/week, depending on what I'm doing every weekend. I usually don't sit around. I estimate I'll have about 43000 miles by end of this year. And probably about 60000/year after that. I drive a lot. The car will pay for itself. Literally. At this rate the amount of gas savings in 10 years should actually be more than the car itself (~$100k). We'll see if the battery can take 600,000 miles....
I figure that I'll probably be the highest mileage Model S of any of owner.
excellent - nice job;
have you ever made that 105 ea round trip without charging at work?
I picked the car up March 6th. I just switched over from driving (45 miles each way, so ~90 daily) + train + metro , to driving straight into the city (about 105 miles each way) last week on June 3rd. So from March 6th-June-3rd I had already accrued ~6800 miles. One week later "after the switch to 200miles/daily), today, I have 8100. It's going to start racking up real fast
I drive a lot. The car will pay for itself. Literally. At this rate the amount of gas savings in 10 years should actually be more than the car itself (~$100k). We'll see if the battery can take 600,000 miles....
That is so awesome !! I love that car #13,306 got you as the owner ... I will be interested to see how the car holds up over so many miles and I am glad you will be putting on so many of them. I see future headlines reading 100k dollar car saves man 105,000 thousand dollars lol
EVNow
Well-Known Member
TMC members are hardly a random sample of Tesla owners. I'd expect them to be skewed towards people with more interest. For eg., there are a lot of folks in my company who own Model S - and don't participate in any discussions (in internal company forums about S or EVs).
In any group of enthusiasts you will find people who spend an insane % of their income on a particular interest (compared to the median). For eg. if you look at an audiophile forum, you will see people with average income spending thousands of $ on audio gear. As they say, exceptions make the rule.
ps : According to Nissan (in 2011) avg income of Leaf owners was $140k.
I shared my secret master plan of investing on TSLA on a separate thread:
My secret master plan of investing on TSLA
I encourage you to share your secret plan as well!
My secret master plan of investing on TSLA
I encourage you to share your secret plan as well!
[moderator's note: I've moved 5 posts of back-and-forth re @gameon to Snippiness. Please keep posts reasoned and reasonable.]
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While you were addressing this to @yobigd20, my CEO lives 121 miles from my house, up in the White Mountains. I've had no problems driving there and back without charging now that we're out of the winter cold. It's tight, but I get home with double-digit charge left.
Wow, thanks! Honestly, this club is the first and only investment forum that I spent more than 1 hour. I didn't expect it is regulated so well and keep the discussion healthy and respectful.
great - thanks Robert; That's what I was looking for (similar commute trip coming)
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
I'm totally with you 100%. I hope to go from a ~$21,000 99 Horsepower Prius C to a Standard 85 Model S. I just want the stock to go up a little bit more...
yeah trying to collect ad revenue from competitors ad (wondering why owner don't like discussion against tesla but love showing ad from competitors)
:cursing:
ShortSlaver
Member
The ad uses an ad-network so teslamotorsclub.com doesn't really have control about what content is displayed.
In essence, as you browse the web information about where you've been can be tracked. The ad network tracks this information and stores data about your "profile". When it comes time to generate your ad, information about you and the site you're on is used to generate a targeted ad based on your profile.
Been going this way since the days of doubleclick in the 90's.
In essence, as you browse the web information about where you've been can be tracked. The ad network tracks this information and stores data about your "profile". When it comes time to generate your ad, information about you and the site you're on is used to generate a targeted ad based on your profile.
Been going this way since the days of doubleclick in the 90's.
chiming in late, but various rebuttal:
For some it is.
If you only want to economically get from one place to another, a Model S is probably not a good purchase. If fuel economy is important, a Leaf or Plug-in-Prius is almost certainly cheaper, and if you don't drive many miles per year, you can do better with a different econobox.
Anyway, a Tesla is a car for people that want more out of their driving experience than can be had from an econobox.
Verdict: Some truth
While Model S should appeal to many of those buyers, it's presumptive to think that Model S satisfies all of them.
Some people really value adaptive cruise control, while others really value collision avoidance systems.
Verdict: Untrue
Depending on the various assumptions used, this might or might not be true.
In my case, my P85 cost noticeably more than an Audi S6, and the Audi S6 would have come with more bells and whistles (e.g., adaptive cruise control, collision avoidance, AWD, etc.)
On the other hand, my bicycle wouldn't fit in an S6, and going to the gas station is annoying.
Verdict: True for some, Myth for others.
If you travel more than 210 miles per day without being able to charge, limited range will be annoying.
Furthermore, range anxiety is a reality, whether it should be or not. Many of us have had to calculate ahead of time whether our Model S will take us far enough. We didn't usually have to do this with our gasoline cars that can be filled up in a few minutes at many locations. Yes, superchargers are helpful, but they are unlikely to ever be as omnipresent as gas stations, nor are they likely to charge as fast.
If I wanted to drive from San Jose to LA, I'd take a gasoline car and drive straight past a couple supercharger stations.
Range anxiety might be overblown by non-owners, but it's still a reality.
Verdict: Partially true.
Hopefully it's myth.
I'll let your verdict stand:
Verdict: Half myth, and the jury is out for the other half.
There are 3 statements there.
Clearly many in the 99% are buying [as are many in the 1%].
I think that one is Myth.
EVs account for less than 1% of car sales:
If EV = battery EV, then that's truth as of today. It might change in the future, but your statement wasn't "BEVs will never exceed 1% of car sales", it was "EVs account for less than 1% of car sales". I think the first is myth (but that's arguable), but the 2nd is truth.
If EV = any car with an electric motor that aids propulsion, then that's myth.
The $11b market cap statement, though, is where I think you were going with statement #6.
It's way too early to call this one.
Tesla some day might have 1/6th the earnings of Ford or 1/3rd the earnings of Audi. It certainly doesn't today.
How do you get a forward P/E multiple for Tesla of 89? Are you looking at 2014 earnings or something? For 2013 earnings, it's looking like earnings of about $0.09/share, for a P/E around 1000. If I were an investor [I'm not], I'd want Tesla to take most of their earnings and use it to develop Model X or Gen III, so I'd be fine with the low earnings, but I think it's unfair to say that you know that the annual earnings on thus-and-such date will be $120m, so that justifies today's market cap of $11b.
Verdict: Too early to tell
Two statements again.
Statement 1 is probably myth. They're on track for this, and if they just keep doing what they've been doing, there's no reason to expect that they'll miss.
Statement 2 is too early to tell.
Unlike statement 1, a lot still needs to happen to get to 25% gross margin without clean air credits. Namely, they need to lower their COGS by some 25%. That's not easy.
Verdict: Too soon to tell on the Gross Margin
Tesla has many advantages, but business history is littered with companies that had a strong advantage and for various reasons was unable to maintain that advantage. just look at video game consoles for several examples. Atari wins, no Nintendo wins, no PlayStation wins, no ....
Verdict: Too soon to tell.
I think it's ridiculous to say that [any_nascent_company] is the next [any_successful_company], or that [any_businessman] is the next [any_larger_than_life_businessman].
We should discuss the traits that Tesla shares with Apple, and that Musk shares with Jobs, but we shouldn't equate them.
If you do try to equate them, the answer will always be: they're different.
Verdict: Irrelevant. Discuss traits, but don't try to equate.
Kids might love Model S, but it isn't an amusement park. c'mon.
Verdict: False
What's the question?
Verdict: Incomplete
Summary
Tesla has made a great car in Model S.
The company is on the path to becoming a top 10 car manufacturer.
It isn't there, yet, and while there's not much immediately obvious to stop the company, stuff happens.
I think it's a bit early to state as fact that the car manufacturer that sells 0.4% as many cars as Ford is undervalued at 18% of Ford's market cap. It might turn out to be true, but it will be years before that's settled.
Personally, I'd rather see a "Myth" vs "Truth" article focus on Myths and Truth, not opinions.
my $0.02,
Derek
For some it is.
If you only want to economically get from one place to another, a Model S is probably not a good purchase. If fuel economy is important, a Leaf or Plug-in-Prius is almost certainly cheaper, and if you don't drive many miles per year, you can do better with a different econobox.
Anyway, a Tesla is a car for people that want more out of their driving experience than can be had from an econobox.
Verdict: Some truth
While Model S should appeal to many of those buyers, it's presumptive to think that Model S satisfies all of them.
Some people really value adaptive cruise control, while others really value collision avoidance systems.
Verdict: Untrue
Depending on the various assumptions used, this might or might not be true.
In my case, my P85 cost noticeably more than an Audi S6, and the Audi S6 would have come with more bells and whistles (e.g., adaptive cruise control, collision avoidance, AWD, etc.)
On the other hand, my bicycle wouldn't fit in an S6, and going to the gas station is annoying.
Verdict: True for some, Myth for others.
If you travel more than 210 miles per day without being able to charge, limited range will be annoying.
Furthermore, range anxiety is a reality, whether it should be or not. Many of us have had to calculate ahead of time whether our Model S will take us far enough. We didn't usually have to do this with our gasoline cars that can be filled up in a few minutes at many locations. Yes, superchargers are helpful, but they are unlikely to ever be as omnipresent as gas stations, nor are they likely to charge as fast.
If I wanted to drive from San Jose to LA, I'd take a gasoline car and drive straight past a couple supercharger stations.
Range anxiety might be overblown by non-owners, but it's still a reality.
Verdict: Partially true.
Hopefully it's myth.
I'll let your verdict stand:
Verdict: Half myth, and the jury is out for the other half.
There are 3 statements there.
Clearly many in the 99% are buying [as are many in the 1%].
I think that one is Myth.
EVs account for less than 1% of car sales:
If EV = battery EV, then that's truth as of today. It might change in the future, but your statement wasn't "BEVs will never exceed 1% of car sales", it was "EVs account for less than 1% of car sales". I think the first is myth (but that's arguable), but the 2nd is truth.
If EV = any car with an electric motor that aids propulsion, then that's myth.
The $11b market cap statement, though, is where I think you were going with statement #6.
It's way too early to call this one.
Tesla some day might have 1/6th the earnings of Ford or 1/3rd the earnings of Audi. It certainly doesn't today.
How do you get a forward P/E multiple for Tesla of 89? Are you looking at 2014 earnings or something? For 2013 earnings, it's looking like earnings of about $0.09/share, for a P/E around 1000. If I were an investor [I'm not], I'd want Tesla to take most of their earnings and use it to develop Model X or Gen III, so I'd be fine with the low earnings, but I think it's unfair to say that you know that the annual earnings on thus-and-such date will be $120m, so that justifies today's market cap of $11b.
Verdict: Too early to tell
Two statements again.
Statement 1 is probably myth. They're on track for this, and if they just keep doing what they've been doing, there's no reason to expect that they'll miss.
Statement 2 is too early to tell.
Unlike statement 1, a lot still needs to happen to get to 25% gross margin without clean air credits. Namely, they need to lower their COGS by some 25%. That's not easy.
Verdict: Too soon to tell on the Gross Margin
Again, too soon to tell.
Tesla has many advantages, but business history is littered with companies that had a strong advantage and for various reasons was unable to maintain that advantage. just look at video game consoles for several examples. Atari wins, no Nintendo wins, no PlayStation wins, no ....
Verdict: Too soon to tell.
I think it's ridiculous to say that [any_nascent_company] is the next [any_successful_company], or that [any_businessman] is the next [any_larger_than_life_businessman].
We should discuss the traits that Tesla shares with Apple, and that Musk shares with Jobs, but we shouldn't equate them.
If you do try to equate them, the answer will always be: they're different.
Verdict: Irrelevant. Discuss traits, but don't try to equate.
Kids might love Model S, but it isn't an amusement park. c'mon.
Verdict: False
What's the question?
Verdict: Incomplete
Summary
Tesla has made a great car in Model S.
The company is on the path to becoming a top 10 car manufacturer.
It isn't there, yet, and while there's not much immediately obvious to stop the company, stuff happens.
I think it's a bit early to state as fact that the car manufacturer that sells 0.4% as many cars as Ford is undervalued at 18% of Ford's market cap. It might turn out to be true, but it will be years before that's settled.
Personally, I'd rather see a "Myth" vs "Truth" article focus on Myths and Truth, not opinions.
my $0.02,
Derek
Haha... Don't you see I am trying to assert my opinion under the cover of "Truth or Myth"?
And my opinion is I am a big bull of Tesla: the car, the company and the investment opportunity.
After I finished off this article, I came to a conclusion...[pause]... I am calling Tesla the stock of the decade, and here is my secrete plan of investing on TSLA:
My secret master plan of investing on TSLA
I stand behind my plan and made enough gain from the investment... accelerating the purchase of MS is just one of the things... and I accomplish all this within 3 months, using the limited capital of an individual investor.
Seriously folks, I need your help here. I try to get this article published on SA but couldn't. I spent some hard back and forth rounds with their editors and realized that is not the best use of my energy.
Now I am thinking of reaching out to Forbes, WSJ, wired etc. I am open to substantially adjust the writing to fit whichever media's publishing guideline, or co-author it.
My motivation of writing this article is whenever the discussion of Tesla starts among my circle of friends, there is always some silly argument(could be one of these 11 arguments) that comes up, and insisted by one guy that it derails the whole discussion. I wrote this so it is a prerequisite reading for friends so to have meaningful discussion.
I don't mind to hear different verdicts at all. The goal is to wake up the inertia of thinking. The conventional wisdom (such as comparison to other automakers, I think it is gross ignorance) is not sufficient to understand Tesla. There is such profound of force coming, and it will sweep through the industry it disrupts(for lack of description).
And by the time everyone agrees with me, then it is time to call the peak. We are far from there.
Any connection to the media will be greatly appreciated! Or if you like to co-author this article, I welcome that too.
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