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Tesla's Supercharger Team was recently laid off. We discuss what this means for the company on today's TMC Podcast streaming live at 1PM PDT. You can watch on X or on YouTube where you can participate in the live chat.
TSLA Investor Discussions
- Thread starter Fr23shjive
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FalconNinetyD
Active Member
Sold my shares last week, thinking a drop was imminent with the rumors of production delays. Placed an order to re-buy at $27.50. When it looked like there was resistance at just below $28, I cancelled order and bought at the market price of $27.93, which looks to be the 30-day low, so I'm quite happy and looking forward to the run up as news of increased production, near-perfect quality, and the Supercharging announcement hits.
Current price is $29.41, up 3% today...
Current price is $29.41, up 3% today...
Mycroft
Life happens
I am going to get in when the stock slides after the world figures out that Tesla will not meet 5000 vehicles this year. Vin 88 is being delivered in the late September time frame. That means they have to build about 4800 vehicles in 3 months. It isnt going to happen. This stock is good, but it is going to go lower before it goes higher.
Welcome to the site! Interesting first post....perhaps you are one of those shorts?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Hitting the "5000" number is not important. Hitting a production volume that can end up hitting their 20K annual number is.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Doubtful, nobody is counting on 5k this year. There are calls for $44 stock price with barely 3k deliveries. I think the probability of a surprise to the upside is much more likely given investors current sentiment.
Oh, and and as we've been through 100 times, it is still possible to hit 5k given their current trajectory. Waiting for the next official update to see if they are still on that curve.
gg_got_a_tesla
Model S: VIN 65513, Model 3: VIN 1913
If you saw the traffic over on the Model S Delivery Update thread, things are looking good. 'Regular' Sig 651 was contacted and given an early October delivery date. So, roughly 600-700 cars are close to being done (with SSLs minus drops).
Before deciding if or how much to invest in TSLA, I would highly recommend reading and viewing these just posted interviews of Elon Musk; If any hint are necessary, I will be adding to my position on monday before lighting out on a trip to Vancouver BC
video interview:
Foundation Episode 20 w/ Elon Musk
written interview:
In deep with Tesla CEO Elon Musk: Financials, Falcon doors and finding faults in the Model S
ken
video interview:
Foundation Episode 20 w/ Elon Musk
written interview:
In deep with Tesla CEO Elon Musk: Financials, Falcon doors and finding faults in the Model S
ken
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
Hadn't seen the Foundation interview. He looks like he hasn't been sleeping again, like he did before COTS 2/3, and he wasn't able to give his stock answers without jumping around and skipping steps. I'd guess he has been working more than 24 hours without more than a few minutes for a nap, and probably hasn't gotten normal sleep in days. Been there, done that, still got the t-shirt.
Seriously though, it's interesting the final answer he gave regarding all the little problems in production. That wasn't even what the question was about, so it's really revealing that he answered the way he did. Clearly the all the little problems have his undivided attention and he is hammering them into submission through shear dogged effort.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
This is a good sign: Model S Delivery Update - Page 54. Sig 501 delivered end of Oct or early Nov. That means production will make or be very close to the 500 cars point at quarter's end. Just as soft-promised. Very nice.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Don't know if we can read too much into that, they seem to be delivering some cars out of order.
May be early and still some hurdles but this most recent verification of ramp up has me feeling significantly more confident as an investor.
When this news reaches mainstream media I would hope to see the stock bump.
from my Samsung galaxy s3
When this news reaches mainstream media I would hope to see the stock bump.
from my Samsung galaxy s3
http://seekingalpha.com/article/855661-tesla-profit-point?source=yahoo
What do you guys think about this article? I want to believe that he has made some mistake or wrong assumptions. Is he correct in assuming that Tesla's cash burn will continue at its current rate? He says in the article that they will maintain their Q2 R&D+SG&A of $111Mil/qtr. (By the way excuse my ignorance but what is SG&A?) I figured it will drop off drastically over Q3 and Q4 as the tooling is completed. If his calculations are correct, I find Elon's statement of 8,000 break-even as misleading... but again, I'm looking to prove him right... thoughts?
What do you guys think about this article? I want to believe that he has made some mistake or wrong assumptions. Is he correct in assuming that Tesla's cash burn will continue at its current rate? He says in the article that they will maintain their Q2 R&D+SG&A of $111Mil/qtr. (By the way excuse my ignorance but what is SG&A?) I figured it will drop off drastically over Q3 and Q4 as the tooling is completed. If his calculations are correct, I find Elon's statement of 8,000 break-even as misleading... but again, I'm looking to prove him right... thoughts?
Yes it's a little difficult. He even says that R&D should INCREASE as the company is a growth type (which although in general I agree with, I don't currently think this is the best idea for TSLA). I originally thought Musk's comment was the breakeven for the Model S inc. that R&D for that product. We must not forget that Tesla is working on multiple projects at once. So that $111 is for Model S, Model X and other areas, not just the Model S.
His article also says an average price of $70k, but then doesn't make any reference as to how he got this figure? There is no evidence to support or to go against this, so it's really just a number plucked out of the air (unless I have missed something?).
I guess with the very limited data it is difficult to say "Yes he is correct" or "No he is entirely wrong".
And I found this, which is very useful I think!
TESLA MOTORS INC (TSLA:NASDAQ GS): Financial Statements - Businessweek
SGA - Selling General & Admin Expenses
RobotGrease: I think his numbers are fairly right but I believe there are 2 more important points to make. This year an average sales price of $70k is in no way correct. They currently do not offer the 60kWh or the 40kWh pack and hence they offer Signature/80kWh possibly with Performance thrown in. The Sigs are starting at $88k or $98k, while the 85kWh standard starts at $70k so currently no one can pay LESS than $70k so the average in 2012 is probably going to be more like $80k most of that with high margin upgrades like performance and ticking off on the options list.
This means the income is higher pushing his curve upwards.
The second is that Tesla has to either do another round of funding somehow to maintain the development work on the Model X and Gen III or wait a bit for the income for the Model S from a full production rate of 20 000+ cars a year. Hence as he says the $110 mill/qt is what he thinks Tesla SHOULD be doing not something they necissarily can afford right now. Not that I disagree with him that spending much money on Model X and Gen III to get those out the door faster might be a good idea in a perfect world.
If you want his math was transparent so using $80k or $85 as average price and cutting R&D to maybe 30 mill /qt in Q3-Q4 2012 will show you very different numbers. Plug them into his formulas and see where you end up.
Though I have no problem thinknig that Elon meant 8000 Model S a year is break-even for Tesla as a company ASSUMING they only want to sell around 8000 Model S a year. That implies a much slower rollout of shops and service center, much less money on R&D etc. The same way Tesla probably could settle as a boutique maker of cars, with just the Roadster and be profitable last year. That of course would have been a very very different company though.
Cobos
This means the income is higher pushing his curve upwards.
The second is that Tesla has to either do another round of funding somehow to maintain the development work on the Model X and Gen III or wait a bit for the income for the Model S from a full production rate of 20 000+ cars a year. Hence as he says the $110 mill/qt is what he thinks Tesla SHOULD be doing not something they necissarily can afford right now. Not that I disagree with him that spending much money on Model X and Gen III to get those out the door faster might be a good idea in a perfect world.
If you want his math was transparent so using $80k or $85 as average price and cutting R&D to maybe 30 mill /qt in Q3-Q4 2012 will show you very different numbers. Plug them into his formulas and see where you end up.
Though I have no problem thinknig that Elon meant 8000 Model S a year is break-even for Tesla as a company ASSUMING they only want to sell around 8000 Model S a year. That implies a much slower rollout of shops and service center, much less money on R&D etc. The same way Tesla probably could settle as a boutique maker of cars, with just the Roadster and be profitable last year. That of course would have been a very very different company though.
Cobos
Norbert
TSLA will win
While I don't know exactly when, R&D is expected to go down significantly at some point, as much of it is investments in the new production line. However they are hiring which also adds some (unknown) cost (but not nearly as much as current R&D, is my understanding).
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