JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Lithium is actually a very small portion of lithium batteries, so lithium price increases will have little impact on cell cost compared to all the other components.
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TSLA Investor Discussions
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Never heard it put like that but yah, your right. Kinda hilarious actually. Someone will end up screwed
The portion by weight or volume is irrelevant to the discussion. All that matters is the portion of the total battery cost that lithium represents. But you raise a good point. I honestly don't know that. If you have any reference for it I'd be interested in seeing them.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
About $3.50 per lb for lithium carbonate,http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1016881/galaxy-notes-lithium-carbonate-price-rises-in-china max of about 1.3kg/kWh using ANL data http://evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1826 so 110kg or 243lbs for the 85kWh pack, $850.50 max of total pack costs, possibly half that.
Norbert
TSLA will win
You could have both battery price decrease, and Lithium price increase, at the same time.
There is a difference between lithium carbonate and lithium metal
This is a very good study done by McKinsey
Battery technology charges ahead - McKinsey Quarterly - Energy, Resources, Materials - Electric Power
they predict the price dropping from 500$-700$/ kWh today to 200$ in 2020
here a good sum up in German so you don't have to register, try google translate
Preissturz bei Lithium-Ionen-Akkus bringt Bewegung in den Automobilmarkt - vdi-nachrichten.com
so to me it looks like Musk is doing a very good bet here
(sorry couldnt edit my post because it was not displayd)
In addition to my Post and the Lithium prices concerns mentioned by others here and the panic that lithium trader are trying to create.
Energy Citations Database (ECD) - Sponsored by OSTI
This is a study done in 1975 that show that (in worst case scenario) it is possible to extract Lithium from Seawater with a price of 11-15$/lb and the amount of available Lithium on earth is way beyond what we would ever need even If we would use the Batteries to store solar/wind power.
The really expensive part is to turn the Lithium carbonate to Lithium Metal and it seems that they will improve in that field.
In addition to my Post and the Lithium prices concerns mentioned by others here and the panic that lithium trader are trying to create.
Energy Citations Database (ECD) - Sponsored by OSTI
This is a study done in 1975 that show that (in worst case scenario) it is possible to extract Lithium from Seawater with a price of 11-15$/lb and the amount of available Lithium on earth is way beyond what we would ever need even If we would use the Batteries to store solar/wind power.
The really expensive part is to turn the Lithium carbonate to Lithium Metal and it seems that they will improve in that field.
Or...they might have an agreement with cell providers to deliver them for years to come with an established pricing structure.
battery pack replacement costs in today's announcement caught my eye too.
it's a bold move, with Tesla basically taking the risk on the progress of batteries themselves. great for consumers. the confidence of such action does not come as a surprise.
really appreciated the poster who pointed out Tesla is somewhat mitigating their risk by getting the value of the used battery.
another thought. even if it takes more than 8 years for battery prices to get low enough for them to breakeven or get ahead of these replacement costs, it still can be a net positive for Tesla. the shifting of risk from consumer to Tesla gets more people comfortable with the S. in many ways the S is the greatest promotional campaign in history. years of jaw dropping at other's S's promotes the Gen 3 middle income consumers will be able to buy in 3 or 4 years. even if 8, 9, 10 years out Tesla loses some money on battery replacements for cars sold today, by 2021, they may well be selling 10 to 15 Gen 3 cars for every model S they sell in 2013, thanks in part to the model S's that were sold in 2013 (the model S's promotion of Tesla, and the model S's providing cash to get Gen 3 rolling in the next few years). in other words, in 2021 or so, losing a few thousand dollars replacing a single model S battery balanced against 10 to 15 Gen 3's sold is not a bad deal for Tesla.
it's a bold move, with Tesla basically taking the risk on the progress of batteries themselves. great for consumers. the confidence of such action does not come as a surprise.
really appreciated the poster who pointed out Tesla is somewhat mitigating their risk by getting the value of the used battery.
another thought. even if it takes more than 8 years for battery prices to get low enough for them to breakeven or get ahead of these replacement costs, it still can be a net positive for Tesla. the shifting of risk from consumer to Tesla gets more people comfortable with the S. in many ways the S is the greatest promotional campaign in history. years of jaw dropping at other's S's promotes the Gen 3 middle income consumers will be able to buy in 3 or 4 years. even if 8, 9, 10 years out Tesla loses some money on battery replacements for cars sold today, by 2021, they may well be selling 10 to 15 Gen 3 cars for every model S they sell in 2013, thanks in part to the model S's that were sold in 2013 (the model S's promotion of Tesla, and the model S's providing cash to get Gen 3 rolling in the next few years). in other words, in 2021 or so, losing a few thousand dollars replacing a single model S battery balanced against 10 to 15 Gen 3's sold is not a bad deal for Tesla.
This does sound very Elon...
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Prices can drop when demand reaches the point when more suppliers go online.
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To that detractor I would say that Tesla did the same thing with the Roadster so there is precedence. Also that Elon has strongly hinted that he knows exactly where batteries will be in five years out and bumped up the BlueGenlllstar development based on that knowledge so the risk is of a price rise is small.
sp4rk
Banned
The thing I don't get is ... why do we expect the price of batteries to go down ... at all?
Based on the simple rule of supply and demand. When demand rises, prices rise.
Based on the simple rule of supply and demand. When demand rises, prices rise.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Unless technology advances and volume production increases drive prices down while specifications improve, as with a lot of technology. Think computers, flat panels, cell phones, etc.
please read the MCKinsey report they put alot of effort in it and are explaining in detail why the prices will go down.
Battery technology charges ahead - McKinsey Quarterly - Energy, Resources, Materials - Electric Power
Battery technology charges ahead - McKinsey Quarterly - Energy, Resources, Materials - Electric Power
I think someone is going to find a negative, regardless of how a battery replacement option is presented. BUT, I do feel Tesla should be very clear on their battery degradation estimates over time. You know the detractors will automatically say that the tesla battery will NEED to be replaced after 8 years because the original is "dead". Maybe, just maybe, that will help to at least minimize the "Oh whoa! wait! I'll HAVE to replace my battery because it will go dead!?" argument.
Great article. Here's a link to the full article w/o needing to register, Battery technology charges ahead Green Business Review .
I extendet the graph from the McKinsey report for the EU folks
for the ones that are skeptical, http://benzinpreis.de/international.phtml?kontinent=EU&s=2
site is in german but self explanatory, some countries have almost 10$/galon
I think the potential growth in this markets is underestimated so far.
And this graph doesn't count the full TCO advantages of EVs
for the ones that are skeptical, http://benzinpreis.de/international.phtml?kontinent=EU&s=2
site is in german but self explanatory, some countries have almost 10$/galon
I think the potential growth in this markets is underestimated so far.
And this graph doesn't count the full TCO advantages of EVs
Like any technology product - they get better at making them. When I was a teenager LCD displays were these tiny (< 1") low-contrast monochrome things with horrible resolution and slow response. Over 30 years of continuous refinement in both materials and production technology and we now have huge yet relatively inexpensive flat screen color TVs with spectacular images. It's not ludicrously fast improvement like silicon chips have done, but slow steady improvement gets you there.
I'd like to know their reasoning on their new short recommendation. Anybody read the report?
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