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TSLA Investor Discussions
- Thread starter Fr23shjive
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Koolaid, a few thoughts,
1. I've heard Elon say a couple of times in the past month (probably on earnings call), that they see sales being split fairly evenly between U.S., EU, and Asia. of course, you have to factor in how long for E.U. and Asia to catch up. I imagine E.U. catch up within a couple of years.
2. Your bullish case. as another poster put it, and you seem to agree, yes big volumes very possible ahead, but it will take more time than 2015. part of this is just human nature. it's hard to predict how quickly people will drop pre-conceived notions and switch to electric. it's hard to predict how widespread the bias against electric cars is. Gen3 will have the advantage of 3 or 4 years of Model S basically chipping away at bias, and wowing people. part of taking time to ramp up is simply logistics of production and sound business practices... Tesla has to somewhat temper their agressiveness so as not to overreach demand and have debt issues.
3. analyst's numbers not even close to your koolaid numbers... far more conservative. I saw this with another growth stock I had, and a fellow investor helped me out with this. imagine you work at say Morgan Stanley and Tesla is a company you cover. you have a $50 price target and a strong buy. if the company succeeds you were a Tesla bull, and you've done you're job well. if they succeed well beyond the numbers you modelled you were still a bull and had the right call on the stock. now, if you put in numbers for Tesla like drinkerofkoolaid, and talked about the stock being at $300 by 2020, you are a bull, and an outlier from all the other analysts. you've put your neck out. if Tesla fails, or succeeds but not to the extreme you've called... well, not good for your career. hope that makes sense.
I take from this that though it can be frustrating that "the pros don't get my company" this very distortion is exactly where we get an opportunity like buying Tesla at these prices. an opportunity from doing our own look at the company and having some courage to believe our own analysis where others are conservative.
1. I've heard Elon say a couple of times in the past month (probably on earnings call), that they see sales being split fairly evenly between U.S., EU, and Asia. of course, you have to factor in how long for E.U. and Asia to catch up. I imagine E.U. catch up within a couple of years.
2. Your bullish case. as another poster put it, and you seem to agree, yes big volumes very possible ahead, but it will take more time than 2015. part of this is just human nature. it's hard to predict how quickly people will drop pre-conceived notions and switch to electric. it's hard to predict how widespread the bias against electric cars is. Gen3 will have the advantage of 3 or 4 years of Model S basically chipping away at bias, and wowing people. part of taking time to ramp up is simply logistics of production and sound business practices... Tesla has to somewhat temper their agressiveness so as not to overreach demand and have debt issues.
3. analyst's numbers not even close to your koolaid numbers... far more conservative. I saw this with another growth stock I had, and a fellow investor helped me out with this. imagine you work at say Morgan Stanley and Tesla is a company you cover. you have a $50 price target and a strong buy. if the company succeeds you were a Tesla bull, and you've done you're job well. if they succeed well beyond the numbers you modelled you were still a bull and had the right call on the stock. now, if you put in numbers for Tesla like drinkerofkoolaid, and talked about the stock being at $300 by 2020, you are a bull, and an outlier from all the other analysts. you've put your neck out. if Tesla fails, or succeeds but not to the extreme you've called... well, not good for your career. hope that makes sense.
I take from this that though it can be frustrating that "the pros don't get my company" this very distortion is exactly where we get an opportunity like buying Tesla at these prices. an opportunity from doing our own look at the company and having some courage to believe our own analysis where others are conservative.
The interesting wild card is the super charge network.
Elon mentioned Tesla has plan to have the USA covered by the end of 2014. I have a hard time believing this wont create tremendous brand awareness. Most people have no idea Tesla exists or still view it as a company that only produces a 120k Roadster.
Motor Trend will change this for those in the know. However, I suspect word of mouth advertising combined with curious people posting pics, combined with the steam of reviews and a probable second motor trend car of the year award for the Model X will cause a massive shift in public perception. I think 200 per day in USA by the end of 2013 is very achievable based on the normal distribution of reservations across the USA. Currently Europe is primarily just clusters, with a few outliers. Part of this is financial incentives that make the Model S a terrific valid for a car in its league, the other part is an absence of any real brand awareness aside from those in the know. Deliveries in Europe are about 6 months behind the USA from what I heard in the stores I visited. This was a while ago, so it may no longer be true. The majority of stores I saw had no promotional material, and did not have a beta model or power train.
My suspicion is that once people begin to realize they can own a 50-70k car that has performance well beyond its price category, reservations will begin to flood in, especially once insurance companies and banks get with the picture. I read somewhere on here that insurance rates for the Model S are much higher then they should be due to the car being brand new. Is this true?
I doubt widespread EV adoption will happen soon, due to technology lag, among other problems ( i.e Public percrptikn/ comfort with EVs, Range Anxiety, Oil interests?)
However, I see no reason Tesla won't have a huge lead in market share in the immediate future. They are easily 3-4 years ahead of the competition and have many advantages. While 500k cars may sound like a large number it really isn't. Globally it would be less then half of 1% of the global New car market.
Arguably, the total cost of ownership is amazingly low. Annual savings of 3-5k (8-10 years), combined with virtually no needed repairs, means you are getting a 50-100k car for half of what a comparable car price wise would be. Once people are comfortable with EVs, I have serious doubts they won't come to their senses
On an aside, BMW sold 332,501 5 Series in 2012. Just an observation
I don't know if EVs will account for more then 5% of cars sold globally by 2020. In the case of Tesla, I'm not sure if it matters.
If I wanted to make a funny observation. If Elon plans to retire to Mars in 12 years, I suspect he intends for all of his companies to be "Mature" or to be "Approaching Maturity" before then. 500k cars would be terrific, however, I suspect he his personal goal is higher
Only problem I can see happening is if the NADA lawsuits are found to have Merit :/ Any supply shortages would only be short term problems.
Elon mentioned Tesla has plan to have the USA covered by the end of 2014. I have a hard time believing this wont create tremendous brand awareness. Most people have no idea Tesla exists or still view it as a company that only produces a 120k Roadster.
Motor Trend will change this for those in the know. However, I suspect word of mouth advertising combined with curious people posting pics, combined with the steam of reviews and a probable second motor trend car of the year award for the Model X will cause a massive shift in public perception. I think 200 per day in USA by the end of 2013 is very achievable based on the normal distribution of reservations across the USA. Currently Europe is primarily just clusters, with a few outliers. Part of this is financial incentives that make the Model S a terrific valid for a car in its league, the other part is an absence of any real brand awareness aside from those in the know. Deliveries in Europe are about 6 months behind the USA from what I heard in the stores I visited. This was a while ago, so it may no longer be true. The majority of stores I saw had no promotional material, and did not have a beta model or power train.
My suspicion is that once people begin to realize they can own a 50-70k car that has performance well beyond its price category, reservations will begin to flood in, especially once insurance companies and banks get with the picture. I read somewhere on here that insurance rates for the Model S are much higher then they should be due to the car being brand new. Is this true?
I doubt widespread EV adoption will happen soon, due to technology lag, among other problems ( i.e Public percrptikn/ comfort with EVs, Range Anxiety, Oil interests?)
However, I see no reason Tesla won't have a huge lead in market share in the immediate future. They are easily 3-4 years ahead of the competition and have many advantages. While 500k cars may sound like a large number it really isn't. Globally it would be less then half of 1% of the global New car market.
Arguably, the total cost of ownership is amazingly low. Annual savings of 3-5k (8-10 years), combined with virtually no needed repairs, means you are getting a 50-100k car for half of what a comparable car price wise would be. Once people are comfortable with EVs, I have serious doubts they won't come to their senses
On an aside, BMW sold 332,501 5 Series in 2012. Just an observation
I don't know if EVs will account for more then 5% of cars sold globally by 2020. In the case of Tesla, I'm not sure if it matters.
If I wanted to make a funny observation. If Elon plans to retire to Mars in 12 years, I suspect he intends for all of his companies to be "Mature" or to be "Approaching Maturity" before then. 500k cars would be terrific, however, I suspect he his personal goal is higher
Only problem I can see happening is if the NADA lawsuits are found to have Merit :/ Any supply shortages would only be short term problems.
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Citizen-T
Active Member
I recall calling for $42/share by the end of this fall at some point last year. Going to need a few more days like this to prove me right. Good thing when we say "fall" with regards to Tesla we really mean "early spring of the following year". :wink:
Hardly a nose dive... it still ended up over 3%, with higher volume. But still not enough for me to call the start of a short squeeze yet.
Smells of profit taking. Wouldn't surprise me if it retests 31. This stock is crazy volatile. Seems to me that if Elon announces anything "unexpected" in the next week, the shorts will have a big problem. I have doubts that anyone would sell and they would be unable to cover :/
i still say that short of something very unusual happening, the stock should re-test its highs. Today's rally was likely a result of short volume decreasing.
Any note worthy events happening in next week or two?
i still say that short of something very unusual happening, the stock should re-test its highs. Today's rally was likely a result of short volume decreasing.
Any note worthy events happening in next week or two?
Norbert
TSLA will win
Maybe the shorts got active again at $34... it'll take more until they really give up. But their end is near.
Thumper
Active Member
I guess the todays 5% spike hat something to do with the release of the Chevy Spark, lots of analyst must have overestimated the Spark and saw it a a part competition to Tesla sales but obv it not the case.
Chevy Spark guts revealed, we go eyes-on
And again they chosen the worst way to present a new car. Like they are doing it on purpose.
Chevy Spark guts revealed, we go eyes-on
And again they chosen the worst way to present a new car. Like they are doing it on purpose.
They've been trimming postions out since the model S started getting the avalanche of awards.
Today was very odd. Way too big a move for a no-news day, weirdly spaced volume, crushed in the afternoon, but did preform well at the close. That support trendline is now confirmed, the market tested it and then ran. I'm going to trim my postion into strength then add when it retests. Today caused quite a bit of daytrader twitter chatter.
The bid/ask was slightly bullish in After Hours. But we need some news to push much higher imo. Won't take much.
Today was very odd. Way too big a move for a no-news day, weirdly spaced volume, crushed in the afternoon, but did preform well at the close. That support trendline is now confirmed, the market tested it and then ran. I'm going to trim my postion into strength then add when it retests. Today caused quite a bit of daytrader twitter chatter.
The bid/ask was slightly bullish in After Hours. But we need some news to push much higher imo. Won't take much.
I don't think any serious analyst would expect the Spark to be a competitor to any of Tesla's products.
It's a sub-compact with sub-100 mile range that doesn't really present any sort of compelling reason to buy it. And, in the US, will only be available in California and Oregon for the foreseeable future.
The really big news that should have the shorts running for cover: a lot of emails went out last night announcing that cars are ready for delivery. I got my notice (P1635), but more amazingly is that P3366 is going to pick up his car at a factory event this weekend. This completely resets my expectations as to how many cars Tesla will deliver in 2012, which is great news not only for us long-time reservation holders, but also for us shareholders. Cars out the door = revenue on the income statement & lots of free advertising as people start to see Model Ss in their neighborhoods.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
I'd caution a bit as the P3366 delivery may be an outlier case for whatever reason. Also, they are still only delivering the 85kWh versions. There may be a good number 60kWh and 40kWh reservation numbers lower than P3366 (incl. myself) who will have to wait till Jan/Feb.
My prediction is that they deliver very close to the upper range of the 2500 - 3500 revised estimate for this year.
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