TSLA Investor Discussions

[Norbert]

Based on the simple rule of supply and demand. When demand rises, prices rise.

Unless technology advances and volume production increases drive prices down while specifications improve, as with a lot of technology. Think computers, flat panels, cell phones, etc.

Or think solar panels. (Or Ford Model T. )

I suppose from a market price perspective, this can more easily happen in situations where lower prices will create even more demand. Especially (but for example due to competition, not only) if the demand is likely to increase to a degree that this will increase the total profit (= profit_per_unit * volume).

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And of course this requires a situation in which supply is not restricted by a finite amount of resources. (Which some claim Lithium is or will be, while most claim it will not be in any practical sense.)

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I'd like to know their reasoning on their new short recommendation. Anybody read the report?

It seems difficult to find a link to that report. Perhaps behind a pay-wall or so.

I'd guess a reason might be that the share price has gone up while gas prices in the US are currently going down (on average). I think there is an over-estimation of the short-term effects of possible gas price savings on the EV market, specifically on Tesla's market. Especially among those who are skeptic of electric cars becoming a valid market, but also even on this forum.

 

[agelston]

Here's my from earnings till now hourly chart. Looks pretty good here, but probably will see some downside early next week

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen Shot 2012-11-30 at 10.37.04 PM.png

 

[Zorba]

Wired some extra money to my broker, hoping for a dip on Monday or Tuesday

 

[Robert.Boston]

Wired some extra money to my broker, hoping for a dip on Monday or Tuesday

Heh, I wired my "extra money" to Tesla on Friday to pay for VIN P01536!

Back on the replacement battery pricing: it's great that Tesla is offering certainty, as it takes yet another argument out of play for the nay-sayers. But if you do the math, with even a modest decline (2%/year) in battery prices, this guarantee is at best a break-even proposition for customers, and it's a clear win for Tesla--which has a pretty high cost of funds these days. I am assuming that the remaining portion of each battery -- say, 70% after 8 years -- has good value as grid-scale power storage. We've already seen Tesla and SolarCity team up to create solar-powered UPSs, so that's a pretty obvious market for "resale" of old batteries. (An 85kWh battery should still have about 60kWh of useful storage after 8 years.)

 

[Norbert]

Back on the replacement battery pricing: it's great that Tesla is offering certainty, as it takes yet another argument out of play for the nay-sayers.

It's at least a good maximum "worst-case" for those concerned the nay-sayers might be (partially) right. I think it is an even better insurance in case it can be cancelled for a refund (minus some fee).

 

[ggr]

Now this is looking like the start of a short squeeze. Volume up, trending up, on a down day. Hold on tight to those shares!

 

[Zorba]

Bought some more at $33,90 and then it went down so tried to buy more (had another order at $33,50) but then it started to go up oh well, not a bad day so far!

 

[ToddRLockwood]

Just sold my Chevron and bought more TSLA. There seems to be some poetic justice in that. If you go strictly by the numbers, Tesla is NOT a buy right now. Schwab gives it an F investment rating, as they would if the stock was at $25. A lot of people avoided Apple for the same reason. The technicals weren't there. But if we had just opened our eyes and noticed that our children and all of their friends were carrying iPods, the message was clear: this is the future. The signal that it was time to buy Apple was when the iTunes store opened. That was the line that divided Apple's past from its future. With Tesla, this line could be the unveiling of the first Supercharger or the COTY award in Motor Trend. We'll recognize it more clearly in a few years. Sure, Tesla's stock will likely get kicked around some more, right up until the fundamentals catch up with the dream. TSLA is a long-term play, 5 years at least. This time, I'm not going to be one of those people who look back and say, "if only."

 

[Citizen-T]

For those that care: I took some profits today at exactly $35. Only my first sale since the bottom, so plenty left to appreciate.

Remember how annoyed you were last time the stock was down and you had no cash to buy more shares? I know right now it feels like it's going straight to $250, but it won't. Believe me, I know it is hard, but now is the time to start raising the cash you'll need later.

Buy on the way down, sell on the way up...

 

[favo]

I did the same.

 

[Discoducky]

@Citizen-T, you read my mind, I actually had a dream two nights ago it hit $170, but the dream was me looking at the past month of activity and it was off it's peak. You can almost never pick the peak, but you can take profit on the run up.

I sold a 1/3 of my shares just now.

 

[NuclearPowered]

Picked up a few more shares today.

 

[westcoastvaleska]

in three months time, made a quick 7k after selling my shares at 34. not bad for a noob eh? intend on following the trend and buy under 30 again. although, it is just a matter of time til it peaks past 40 and until that day, i await with an avid hunger! rawr

 

[CyberDutchie]

For those that care: I took some profits today at exactly $35.

Wow, looks like you really nailed it today.

 

[dmckinstry]

For those that care: I took some profits today at exactly $35. Only my first sale since the bottom, so plenty left to appreciate.

Remember how annoyed you were last time the stock was down and you had no cash to buy more shares? I know right now it feels like it's going straight to $250, but it won't. Believe me, I know it is hard, but now is the time to start raising the cash you'll need later.

Buy on the way down, sell on the way up...

Me too. I had a sell limit at $35.00 for 5% of my TSLA. After reading your post I checked my brokerage account and it says "Executed".

I hope it's shorted enough that it shoots way up so that I can take more profit and still buy back more shares than I have now.

Maybe we're some of those that kept TSLA from shooting up even more. But, I doubt my trivial amount had much to do with it.

 

[aznt1217]

Eh. I'm still in for the long run. Timing the market is nearly impossible. I thought about selling half today but said forget it. Not worth the stress

 

[mitch672]

Eh. I'm still in for the long run. Timing the market is nearly impossible. I thought about selling half today but said forget it. Not worth the stress

I agree, what's more likely to happen is, it gets away from you. You sell on the way up, great, now your waiting for it to "have a bad day" and drop to $29-$31 range, only problem, it might never happen... Hard to say. My shares are in my IRA account anyway, so just let them appreciate. The hardest part of investing is letting your profits multiply, but it's the only way to own a "100 bagger"

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Something was announced at 2pm today regarding Auto Sales. Is the only explanation for the jump at that moment that I can find. Anyone notice anything unusual?

 

[dmckinstry]

I agree, what's more likely to happen is, it gets away from you. You sell on the way up, great, now your waiting for it to "have a bad day" and drop to $29-$31 range, only problem, it might never happen... Hard to say. My shares are in my IRA account anyway, so just let them appreciate. The hardest part of investing is letting your profits multiply, but it's the only way to own a "100 bagger"

My TSLA is mostly in my IRA as well. I'm retired and over 71, so I had to sell some anyway. I'm just glad it happened with a profit rather than having to sell at a loss if I'd waited too long.

 

[mitch672]

My TSLA is mostly in my IRA as well. I'm retired and over 71, so I had to sell some anyway. I'm just glad it happened with a profit rather than having to sell at a loss if I'd waited too long.

Sure, profit is always better than a loss. Good for you... I'm almost 53, can't start distributions until 59 1/2, I'm hoping TSLA is $75-100 by then and has already had one or more 2:1 splits by then . Essentially they will have paid for my Model S and beyond at that point.