TSLA Investor Discussions

[JRod0802]

SpaceX and TSLA have been around for a number of years and SpaceX has had very visible failures. Has that affected the stock price before? It seems like that'd be basic research the author should have done before publishing.

I believe SpaceX has only had one launch (the successful Falcon 9 launch in December 2010) since Tesla IPO'd. There is no precedent for what might happen to the TSLA stock if a SpaceX lunch fails.

I'm thinking about it more, and I suppose it is more of an opinion than I originally thought. Perhaps it wouldn't affect the TSLA price at all. I think it is a good discussion to have though.

Just FYI, this is the first stock that I've invested in personally (outside of my retirement plan), so in general I'm trying to pay close attention.

 

[ckessel]

I believe SpaceX has only had one launch (the successful Falcon 9 launch in December 2010) since Tesla IPO'd. There is no precedent for what might happen to the TSLA stock if a SpaceX lunch fails.

They had 2 failed launches prior to the successful launch. The 3rd was their last gasp, we fold as a company if it doesn't work launch. Elon has stated that in SpaceX interviews, I think he stated it as well in the 60 minutes interview. Anyway, point being, SpaceX has really been on death's door before so it's bleed over into TSLA should be something that could be researched.

However, thinking about it, TSLA might not have been public at the time. I'd have to dig up the failed launch dates.

You could reasonably argue that the public image of both Tesla and SpaceX is significantly different now and concerns apply now that might not have in the past. I'm not sure how you'd really quantify or support it though, it's still mostly us musing on the subject.

 

[JRod0802]

However, thinking about it, TSLA might not have been public at the time. I'd have to dig up the failed launch dates.

I just checked. It was just the one launch. All the others occurred before Tesla was public.

Edit - dates:

March 24th, 2006 - Falcon 1 flight 1 - failure
March 21st, 2007 - Falcon 1 flight 2 - failure
August 3rd, 2008 - Falcon 1 flight 3 - failure
September 28th, 2008 - Falcon 1 flight 4 - success
July 14th, 2009 - Falcon 1 flight 5 - success
June 4th, 2010 - Falcon 9 flight 1 - success
---
June 29th, 2010 - Tesla IPO
---
December 8th, 2010 - Falcon 9 flight 2 (Dragon flight 1) - success

 

[jcstp]

Umm.... yeah! The very same Steve Jobs that the writer kept referring to was CEO at publicly-traded Pixar and Apple at the same time with both companies churning out 'hits'!

A hallmark of a true leader is if s/he learns to assemble the right team around her/himself so that many of the more routine tasks get delegated to capable people.

All the same, I can imagine it being a definite stretch to run two high-flying companies - headquartered in two areas, Palo Alto/Fremont and Hawthorne, a couple of hours apart in door-to-door flying/travel duration - at the same time. Jobs talked about it in his biography wherein he had to do long late-night drives between Cupertino and Richmond (where Pixar was located at that time) after rather stressful days.

I thought reading recently that space-x and tesla-designstudio are next to each other!
so elon can jump from one to an other as needed!

 

[zack]

My thoughts exactly.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

I thought reading recently that space-x and tesla-designstudio are next to each other!
so elon can jump from one to an other as needed!

True; the Tesla design studio (more for Franz and his team) and SpaceX are co-located in Hawthorne in SoCal. However, Tesla's corporate HQ in Palo Alto and the factory in Fremont are in NorCal.

My take on the Tesla - SpaceX relationship w.r.t. investors is that, if SpaceX fails and comes close to folding, in the short term, TSLA could suffer from the negative fallout but, in the long run, could benefit from now having Elon's undivided attention.

If SpaceX succeeds, then, that could provide an immediate boost to TSLA as it'd justifiably show that Elon's no fly-by-night, shady conman!

 

[smorgasbord]

Plus, he loves the words "implausible" and "inconceivable". I don't think those words mean what he thinks they mean.

Obligatory Princess Bride reference:

 

[smorgasbord]

If you like technical stock analysis, you'll find this interesting: Call Volume Nears Peak Levels on TSLA

After tagging an all-time high of $39.95 on March 27, the stock pulled back to its 80-day moving average -- trendline that has once again emerged as a foothold.

Although 80-days is a non-standard interval, if you believe this stuff, TSLA crossing the moving average line upwards is a buy signal. Of course, actual news always wreaks havoc with technical analysis - see what happened in mid January.

Despite short sellers reducing their bearish exposure by 6.1% in the last two reporting periods, short interest still accounts for a mind-boggling 34.3% of the stock's available float. It would take nearly three weeks to cover these shorted shares, at TSLA's average daily trading volume. Coupling TSLA's recent bounce from support with this staggering short-to-float ratio, this recent jump in call volume may simply be the result of short sellers picking up hedges on their bearish bets.

Which tells me the short squeeze is coming.

 

[Uncle Ron]

EDIT,,

 

[joefee]

Investors. What do you think of delivering Sig 182 in September (@John M)?

It's Time to Build Your Model S

My response (@joefiorelli):

Current Production Run Rate | Forums | Tesla Motors

 

[JRP3]

I'm thinking under promise and over deliver.

 

[agileone]

Don't forget, Elon is only human.

Do you have proof for this ?

 

[Discoducky]

Do you have proof for this ?

If he can pull off a successful launch, docking and solid investor earnings call in one week I highly doubt he is human. Both companies could be compromised if the results are not spot on, possibly not lethal to either, but compromised nonetheless in one week. Talk about stress. And there is talk about Solar City going public...Geez! If anyone can do it, Elon can!

 

[Robert.Boston]

What you don't understand is that Elon, when he is 73, will invent a time-travel machine. He is currently using this machine to run two versions of himself -- which is why SpaceX and Tesla Motors are so far apart, to avoid the possibility of the one Elon meeting the other. Very clever, he is.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

With all the positive news of late or coming up -

- the RAV4 EV unveiling,
- the upcoming earnings call,
- the SpaceX launch (fingers crossed despite the latest delay),
- signature special reservation holders being asked to configure their Model S

couldn't resist jumping back into the waters again at $33.9991

This time, I'll stay the course till I need the money badly (I had exited a few weeks ago just under $35)!

 

[Steph]

gg, if you want to get back in, do it now. This baby is going to heaven next week!

 

[zack]

gg, if you want to get back in, do it now. This baby is going to heaven next week!

What if the dragon burns up? Even Elon said this is a test. He's not that firm on it being a success.

 

[Steph]

What if the dragon burns up? Even Elon said this is a test. He's not that firm on it being a success.

What if it doesn't burn?

 

[AnOutsider]

What if it doesn't burn?

What if it does?

 

[Steph]

What if it does?

If it does, I think Tesla stock will be affected but it will be a short term drop. Tesla is a separate entity with a complete different mission after all.

If successful, hype building will be huge and will have three very specific big moments: Launch, Coupling with ISS and landing. If goes right, prepare for a storm on the TSLA stock.

Other than that, on the long term for Tesla, nothing is changed.