TSLA Investor Discussions

[Norbert]

I guess Tesla's range at constant 55mph will not change! That has nothing to do with EPA

EPA range is a mix of driving-situations! I am not aware Tesla already unveiled an estimated EPA!

Someone who has done careful observations on the Roadster might know better, but I'd guess the 230 and 300 mile ranges are needed more on the highway, when driving at somewhat constant speeds (except maybe during rush hour), and that the @55mph number is still a better indicator (using the translations to higher speeds we've been making), than any EPA numbers whatever they are. (Which however might be relevant if you really use that much range in city or mixed driving).

 

[Doug_G]

+1 Norbert

The range of the Roadster is such that I don't worry about in-city driving - I always have enough. The exact number for range isn't that relevant - I always have enough. I get below half-full maybe once a month. That said, having that reserve there means I never have to worry about it.

The range at 55 is indeed extremely useful to know for road trips. But you also have to be aware that there are factors that can reduce that range and plan accordingly.

 

[onlinespending]

I don't think that matters. If Tesla and, say, Nissan were launching at the same time and the public saw both numbers get hammered at once, then perhaps there would be some understanding. As it stands though, Tesla has been saying 3 numbers for years, and when the car comes to market with numbers lower than they've been touting, the average joe isn't going to dive into WHY or even care, they're just going to think "I knew it was too good to be true" or similar.

Well, the average joe doesn't even know about Tesla. So perhaps even if the numbers come in at 30% less than now advertised, and those average joe's start to become aware of the company, they won't have any prior knowledge of range to be disappointed. An EV that gets over 200 mile range is still better than any other mainstream alternative out there, and would be impressive to most.

 

[AnOutsider]

This is true. I guess it will more affect those of us who have shared Tesla info with skeptical friends

 

[daniel]

Someone who has done careful observations on the Roadster might know better, but I'd guess the 230 and 300 mile ranges are needed more on the highway, when driving at somewhat constant speeds (except maybe during rush hour), and that the @55mph number is still a better indicator (using the translations to higher speeds we've been making), than any EPA numbers whatever they are. (Which however might be relevant if you really use that much range in city or mixed driving).

I love to quote the 55-mph range figures. If I ever needed to, I could drive at 55 on the freeways here. However, cars would be passing me constantly. The range at 55 is not really realistic. Range at local freeway speed limit is more meaningful. If the EPA number turns out to be closer to the range at 65 mph, that will not necessarily be unfair. 55 has been an arbitrary number ever since Jimmy Carter's 55-mph speed limit was discarded. (Like so many of Carter's energy policies, it made sense, but he lacked the charisma to sell it.)

The range of the Roadster is such that I don't worry about in-city driving - I always have enough.

I, too, always have enough for both city and beyond. I don't use the Roadster as a road-trip car, and I tell people that. The Prius is my road-trip car, as it's more comfortable to sit in and drive (though much less fun) and has a LOT of luggage space.

When I drive the Roadster, I drive it hard, and even at the farthest I would ever want to drive in one day (road trips excepted, which I never enjoy, they are to get somewhere, but because I enjoy the driving) it has plenty of range.

However, the EPA numbers will affect public perception. They will perceive Tesla's numbers as inflated and therefore as misleading or dishonest. With luck, this will cause the stock to drop enough to trigger my limit order. Then, when the car is on the road in the hands of owners, and it is seen how great a car it is, and what the real-world range is, and how strong sales are, the stock will go back up.

 

[JRP3]

55 has been an arbitrary number ever since Jimmy Carter's 55-mph speed limit was discarded. (Like so many of Carter's energy policies, it made sense, but he lacked the charisma to sell it.)

Actually it was sold, and remained in effect until it was repealed. It's still the top speed on many roads around here.

 

[smorgasbord]

Let's get back to an investor discussion:

What are some bullish plays on TSLA? Here are some examples:

1) Buy the stock today at $33. I've previously bought shares. While I do think buying at $33 will make me money, given TSLA's volatility, I'd rather buy shares under $30.

2) Sell out of the money Puts on down days. I've done this several times - all with good outcomes. Either I made some cash (the Put premium) or I ended up buying TSLA cheaper than it was when I sold the Put. I like this strategy because when bad news hits Tesla, it can be hard to predict the bottom. Selling the Put essentially gives me an ever lower price to buy the stock at, or gives me the Put income as a consolation prize. Since I believe Tesla will rise during the next 10 months, the consolation prize is good, but leaves money on the table. You typically need a margin account to sell Puts, but I haven't actually used the margin (I always have enough cash in the account to cover the Put being exercised).

3) Buy out of the money Calls. This gives me the option to buy the stock later at the strike price, which, while higher than the price today, is what I'm betting will be lower than the price in the future. I haven't done this one yet, since it's more defensive (if the stock price doesn't go up you simply don't exercise the option), and I'm not worried about being defensive with Tesla stock.

What other recommendations do people have? Let's say that given a 7-8 month timeframe I'm very confident TSLA will be trading at least 33% higher than it is today. What are some ways to use leverage to take advantage of that? I'm not looking to risk Junior's college fund on this, but I do like to have a portion of my investments that I consider high confidence risks for potentially big payoffs, and Tesla is my current favorite.

 

[SittingMoose]

Well, the average joe doesn't even know about Tesla. So perhaps even if the numbers come in at 30% less than now advertised, and those average joe's start to become aware of the company, they won't have any prior knowledge of range to be disappointed. An EV that gets over 200 mile range is still better than any other mainstream alternative out there, and would be impressive to most.

I disagree with this. Reason being is that the average Joe watches TV and reads the news. Even if a 30% reduction in range in itself may be okay, news networks (Fox would be first in line) and opinion articles would start writing about how Tesla lied about the initial range and is now stating a 30% reduction in range. Then the crazies come out and start spewing all of this vitriolic bullcrap (Rush L.) about how the car itself is a piece of junk etc. etc.

Case in point: Chevy Volt. I'm not saying the car is perfect (I'm also in favor of pure EV) but it did garner alot of unnecessary criticism...Considering the fact that Tesla received DOE loans, it may be just as bad if there's any sort of perceived flaw about the Model S...

 

[bonnie]

Let's get back to an investor discussion:

What are some bullish plays on TSLA? Here are some examples:

1) Buy the stock today at $33. I've previously bought shares. While I do think buying at $33 will make me money, given TSLA's volatility, I'd rather buy shares under $30.

2) Sell out of the money Puts on down days. I've done this several times - all with good outcomes. Either I made some cash (the Put premium) or I ended up buying TSLA cheaper than it was when I sold the Put. I like this strategy because when bad news hits Tesla, it can be hard to predict the bottom. Selling the Put essentially gives me an ever lower price to buy the stock at, or gives me the Put income as a consolation prize. Since I believe Tesla will rise during the next 10 months, the consolation prize is good, but leaves money on the table. You typically need a margin account to sell Puts, but I haven't actually used the margin (I always have enough cash in the account to cover the Put being exercised).

3) Buy out of the money Calls. This gives me the option to buy the stock later at the strike price, which, while higher than the price today, is what I'm betting will be lower than the price in the future. I haven't done this one yet, since it's more defensive (if the stock price doesn't go up you simply don't exercise the option), and I'm not worried about being defensive with Tesla stock.

What other recommendations do people have? Let's say that given a 7-8 month timeframe I'm very confident TSLA will be trading at least 33% higher than it is today. What are some ways to use leverage to take advantage of that? I'm not looking to risk Junior's college fund on this, but I do like to have a portion of my investments that I consider high confidence risks for potentially big payoffs, and Tesla is my current favorite.

Good post. I've picked the simple 'buy low' strategy (#1, above). There are a few times I've sold to take a profit (most notably when it hit 39), but I have a standing buy order in just above 30. Below 30, I'll make some bigger buys.

I'd call this the most volatile stock that I own, but between the technology and first-hand knowledge of the company, I'd say this particular stock is solid for me but perceived by the market as volatile ... which makes the dips enjoyable, rather than stressful. I have a couple that I consider much more risky.

 

[Norbert]

I love to quote the 55-mph range figures. If I ever needed to, I could drive at 55 on the freeways here. However, cars would be passing me constantly. The range at 55 is not really realistic. Range at local freeway speed limit is more meaningful. If the EPA number turns out to be closer to the range at 65 mph, that will not necessarily be unfair. 55 has been an arbitrary number ever since Jimmy Carter's 55-mph speed limit was discarded. (Like so many of Carter's energy policies, it made sense, but he lacked the charisma to sell it.)

Just to correct this misunderstanding: I don't value the @55mph number specifically because of the 55 part (though Highway 1 here, for example, often has limits of 50 and 55), but because of the constant speed part, which translates better (with a conversion factor for whatever speed you actually intend to travel at) to the longer highway trips you may be taking when using the full range.

The EPA number will include city driving which is irrelevant to highway driving, while for city driving the range of the Model S or Roadster is usually more than sufficient in any case.

EDIT: And the @55mph number better reflects aerodynamic influence. If you have different cars with ranges >200 miles, it will be more interesting to compare the @55mph constant speed numbers, than to compare the EPA numbers (unless the efficiency of regen is important to you).

 

[daniel]

Actually it was sold, and remained in effect until it was repealed. It's still the top speed on many roads around here.

The general public resented it (the 55-mph speed limit) and never accepted that it was a good idea. In rural North Dakota where I lived, and in some other states, it was not enforced. Of course there are 55-mph roads. But most long-distance highways and freeways are 65 or over.

Let's get back to an investor discussion:

[...] What other recommendations do people have? Let's say that given a 7-8 month timeframe I'm very confident TSLA will be trading at least 33% higher than it is today. What are some ways to use leverage to take advantage of that?

There's always plain old buying on margin. Of course if the stock goes down before it goes up, you could get sold out, and if you're wrong in your prediction you could lose your shirt. I don't really see a lot of difference between the different kinds of margin, option, and derivative trading. It's all gambling on short-term fluctuations, as opposed to invest-and-hold, which is gambling only on the long-term success of the company.

 

[daniel]

The EPA number will include city driving which is irrelevant to highway driving, while for city driving the range of the Model S or Roadster is usually more than sufficient in any case.

I agree with this. City range is only important in a car where there might not be enough range. Once a car can drive farther than city distances, then highway range becomes the relevant number.

 

[Uncle Ron]

EDIT,,

 

[BYT_P1837]

I only have two Tech Stocks that I am long on, one of course is TSLA. I would never short TSLA but knowing that historically tech stocks go down as the thermostat goes up, I invest in SQQQ as well which corresponds to three times the inverse (-3x) of the daily performance of the Nasdaq. IMHO, this is the way to play it, especially this time of year if you believe in historical evaluations. I think it may still drop a bit from here but will bounce soon. There are ways to play Shorts without all the risk or for those who have trouble understanding how or are afraid to step into the shark infested waters.

Of course the disclaimer: Stock recommendations and comments presented by BYT are solely those of his own. They do not represent the opinions of TeslaMotorsClub.com on whether to buy, sell or hold shares of a particular stock. Investors should be cautious about any and all stock recommendations and should consider the source of any advice on stock selection. Various factors, including personal or corporate ownership, may influence or factor into an expert's stock analysis or opinion. All investors are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a purchase decision. In addition, investors are advised that past stock performance is no guarantee of future price appreciation.

Also, I'm not a lawyer, just handy with a search engine...

 

[Uncle Ron]

EDIT,,

 

[bonnie]

I hold only one pink stock, Organovo (ONVO) ... it's a bio-tissue 3D printer. Coolest thing ever, absolutely no volume to speak of, made some initial profit after the IPO, but stagnant (for now).

I just wanted to own some of it because I love the idea of someday being able to use a 3D printer to create a new kidney or a new limb. And in the meantime, it could prove to save a lot of clinical trial time/dollars for some new drugs. I placed a bet on a little magic.

And I'm NOT recommending to buy or sell! (See disclaimer, above.)

 

[AnOutsider]

Hmm, I'm going to have to check them out. Volume or not, I love to support companies that are trying to do great things

 

[Uncle Ron]

EDIT,,

 

[Uncle Ron]

EDIT,,

 

[Doug_G]

Just a friendly nudge - please keep the discussion relevant to Tesla investments.