Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
But if reservations keep coming in at current or increased tempo, why wouldn't they want to sell 30k cars a year if they can???
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TSLA Investor Discussions
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But if reservations keep coming in at current or increased tempo, why wouldn't they want to sell 30k cars a year if they can???
Norbert
TSLA will win
No, not just for that, and in any case I think not yet in Q4, that was a more general remark about the capacity of the line, just as they mentioned the possibility of two shifts also in the Q&A session today. However, Elon did say that when the production increases to its high level in Q4, they may produce at a higher rate than 20k/year, in balance to the slow(-er) ramp-up in Q3. (EDIT: And that they might keep a higher level if the corresponding demand will be there.)
People are really selling off on the under production news. I thought a hiccup or two was expected, especially from a start up like Tesla. Things don't go off without a hitch in the auto industry, just look at Toyota, GM, Nissan...etc. I think this sell off/panic is over blown but it creates a great buying opportunity for anybody who missed out on the last dip.
Not to mention next year is when they make their first profit and their stock really starts to take off.
Not to mention next year is when they make their first profit and their stock really starts to take off.
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Look for support from shorts covering tomorrow. A thoughtful read of the Q2 letter would, IMO, make me want to cover.
The skeptics are thinking like this: Q3 production is real; Q4 production is aspirational; I'll trade on real, not unicorns. Real says <2,000 deliveries, cash-flow negative Q4 2012, and continuing operational problem into 2013.
I'm thinking: pick up another 1,000 shares tomorrow?
The skeptics are thinking like this: Q3 production is real; Q4 production is aspirational; I'll trade on real, not unicorns. Real says <2,000 deliveries, cash-flow negative Q4 2012, and continuing operational problem into 2013.
I'm thinking: pick up another 1,000 shares tomorrow?
mitch672
Active Member
I bought 500 at Tuesday's close (was a little under $30 at that time), I only bought 500 so I could buy some more if the price continues down.
I might wait and see where it heads for a few days, it's certainly a buying opportunity for sure. The short sellers will be putting upward pressure on it, as they cover their shorts.
I might wait and see where it heads for a few days, it's certainly a buying opportunity for sure. The short sellers will be putting upward pressure on it, as they cover their shorts.
Vger
Active Member
It is SO amusing to listen to these analysts desperately trying to catch up with the innovative and completely unconventional thinking of Elon and his team. You can almost hear the quizzical overloaded expressions on their faces.
Steph
Member
mitch672
Active Member
Vger, that IS their problem, they are trying to analyze TSLA like any other car manufacturer, of course they are unlike anything seen to date, so they are befuddled. Focusing on quarter-quarter P/L, they are very likely to miss the big picture (and eventual rapid stock price increase). As has been said before, don't bet against Elon, his track record is excellent to date, demand is high for the Model S, and they are years ahead of most other mfrs, including Nissan.
Norbert
TSLA will win
As we said, it can happen any time, but I'd guess it will take a trigger like reaching high production volume (Q4), profit (Q1 2013), or even continued reservations past the first 20k (mid 2013). In theory, the Supercharger announcement might do it, but in practice it'll probably have to be something that involves proof in a more traditional business sense.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Oh good. I was hoping that we'd be down today. Time to bring out the big guns: purchasing call options today.
Funny to watch the reaction of the stock price compared to the mood of the investor conference call. Is it just me or were Elon and the guys starting to sound a little bit giddy?
Citizen-T
Active Member
I'd be willing to bet 95% or more of the people trading TSLA today did not listen to the conference call or read a transcript. Very typical. If you read the headlines and didn't listen to the conference call you'd have a completely different perspective on the quarter.
That was my impression. Watching the stock nose dive in the last week has been depressing, especially juxtaposed against a giddy conference call and overwhelmingly positive reviews. It'll come back up, I just regret having no money to buy with. I thought about looking into buying on margin, but I'm already over exposed with as much of my spare money as I've put into TSLA already.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Adm
Active Member
I guess some investors start to loose their patience in TSLA, expecting the stock to keep rocketing up while TSLA has still some work ahead towards profitability and than some.
Here on this forum also, unfounded speculation sometimes leads to unrealistic expectations concerning the developement of the company and its products and the trajectory of the stock price slope. Rome wasn't build in one day and neither will a company that will shake up an entire industry.
It maybe fun to trade on the way up and down, but if you're in it for the long run be patient as that long run maybe go longer than you think. TSLA could be trading on this level for many months to come. It will take some quarters of profits to lay a foundation on which the stock price could eventually build on.
Here on this forum also, unfounded speculation sometimes leads to unrealistic expectations concerning the developement of the company and its products and the trajectory of the stock price slope. Rome wasn't build in one day and neither will a company that will shake up an entire industry.
It maybe fun to trade on the way up and down, but if you're in it for the long run be patient as that long run maybe go longer than you think. TSLA could be trading on this level for many months to come. It will take some quarters of profits to lay a foundation on which the stock price could eventually build on.
smorgasbord
Active Member
If you're short TSLA, there was plenty in the call to keep you in the game. Only 10 cars delivered. Musk said the 5000 cars in 2012 goal was "soft." Still hundreds of little quality problems. The supercharger announcement got pushed out 2 months, and maybe more. There was talk about doing a capital raise.
Citizen-T: How far out are you looking for calls? Are you looking all the way to the Jan '14 LEAPS, or just Mar '13? Or, are you thinking some short-term play? Just curious.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Shorter than that. I just think we are oversold here and near term, a bounce is gonna happen. I'm trying to decide between Sept and Dec. and a strike price between $30 and $33. I like Sept. better, because I think it will capture QE3 and the supercharger announcement. But, if the supercharger event gets delayed again, or if it is late Sept, I might miss it.
What I'd really like is Oct., but not available.
I really have no idea how bright the short-sellers are. The only "hope" they have of winning on their shorts is Tesla failing to start repaying the loan in December and a downward spiral from there on. From a distance Tesla is still a software company attempting to make cars, and the odds at success based on that are next to zero.
Most short-sellers spend an hour or so analyzing a stock; they don't watch Elon's every talk, don't see what Elon's done to SpaceX, and can't imagine that the world is changing rapidly in one where a car *is* for a large part a software product.
Only when TSLA starts making a profit will they finally believe what they see.
There are people who make thing happen, people who see things happening, and those who wonder what the h*ll just happened.
I think we can all find examples of each of those categories!
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