NigelM
Recovering Member
10% of the float is probably about right. Trades are monitored and recorded though, so you'll get caught - Shame, it would have been a nice idea if it was legal.
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TSLA Investor Discussions
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10% of the float is probably about right. Trades are monitored and recorded though, so you'll get caught - Shame, it would have been a nice idea if it was legal.
It looks like Chrysler sales are up (~13%) and GM and Ford sales are down (~6%) so there is some 'industry news' today that is negative. It could be a good time to write some August $25 puts. Lots of 'headline news' this week with announcements by the Fed, ECB and then the jobs report on Friday. Plenty of volatility ahead ...
smorgasbord
Active Member
So, it's illegal for a bunch of people to agree to buy 6.5 million shares of Tesla? Doesn't this get down to intent (which is blown considering the public posting, but if done in person over lunch....)?
As for buying now that the price is down, I'm wary of catching the falling knife. Selling Puts in the amount of shares you might otherwise buy today is, for me, a safer way to go. If the price goes down further, you're getting a better price, and if the price goes up, you keep the Put premium and still have the opportunity to buy on the open market before it gets really high. But, watch out for August, and be cautious about September.
Why do I think we might be catching a falling knife now? Well, deliveries are going to be slow in Q3, the 5000 total this year is in question, and Tesla seems likely to do a capital raise this calendar year. I think Tesla knows that just issuing more shares will dilute and make the stock tank, so my guess is they're talking with existing investors (Toyota, Mercedes, Panasonic) or new big investors and will do a private placement. That will still hurt the stock price, I'm guessing. Q3 deliveries look to be starting off from zero - and they need to average 10 cars/day to make the 50o. Three weeks from now may not be enough time to know how things are shaking out, with the result that the stock price won't recover before then.
Smorg, solid take on things. Although one thing I was thinking about regarding the capital raise (I am probably just biased and optimistic because I'm long for now) is that a capital raise could actually help the stock price. I say this because a relatively small capital raise would minimize dilution, but at the same time give them more time to "sell" more reservations and make sure that demand is in line with production and more importantly breakeven capacity.
smorgasbord
Active Member
More reservations won't make the stock go up. It's going to take deliveries and happy customers.
Short term the capital raise will hurt the stock price. I suspect the weakness in the stock right now is that people who are thinking of buying are waiting for the raise to happen and then take advantage of the expected decline to pick up shares. So, those of you with funds available might want to consider keeping some powder dry for a spell. Of course, I could be totally wrong - it's happened before. I'm really bad at short term technicals.
NigelM
Recovering Member
smorgasbord
Active Member
Raymond, next time you have a bright idea, talk to people about it in person after checking them for hidden microphones or cell phones that are recording.
The whole thing about "wearing a wire" is so last century, after all.
mnx
2018 M3P
more reservations could cause Tesla to raise guidance which would in turn send the stock up. Of course, this is longer term not anytime soon.
smorgasbord
Active Member
Tesla 940
Member
$26.50 Buy Order executed - sitting on the books for 2 DAYS!
Now we will see if my nex Buy Order will be executed.
Lawsuits will also scare away investors (ie New Mexico developer suing Tesla over lost electric car factory Cleantech News and Analysis )
smorgasbord
Active Member
Lots.
They know how hard it is to get a new car company going on a tight schedule and tighter budget.
They know how hard it is to be a disrupting technology in a field that has big bucks invested in preserving the status quo.
They know how resistant Americans in particular are to change.
They know how hard it is to get production correct right off the bat.
They know that Tesla will likely be raising cash this year.
They know that Tesla hasn't shipped more than a dozen or so cars yet.
They know that Tesla may not make the 5000 car target this year.
They know that even if Tesla makes 20K cars next year, the stock is still priced at more then 10X future earnings. And those future earnings may not occur.
But, mostly, they know that Tesla is a volatile stock and don't get all worked up as the price bounces around.
mnx
2018 M3P
They also about missing cupholders and vanity lights. :smile:
Sorry couldn't resist.
Sorry couldn't resist.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Out of curiosity, to try to understand how you can let yourself get so upset and carried away, would you share with us just how "deep" you're in? (especially what your average buying price is for the stock you currently own).
If you're not going to actually talk about investing in Tesla and have anything of substance to say, please keep it to yourself. Not a good look my man. You're an emotional hot mess, and should really just spare us.
Meh. That's nothing. Look at the graph, not the day. It's headed up. It's just down for the day. Go back to sleep.
Krugerrand
Meow
Quote of the day that I'd like to copy and paste in about a dozen threads on this forum:
Elon Musk @elonmusk
"People ought to think more about who wrote the software that's running in their head (sigh). It probably wasn't them."
Elon Musk @elonmusk
"People ought to think more about who wrote the software that's running in their head (sigh). It probably wasn't them."
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