Oh yes that too. I actually didn't think they'd need it but I know Elon put the cards on the table a while ago.
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TSLA Investor Discussions
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Oh yes that too. I actually didn't think they'd need it but I know Elon put the cards on the table a while ago.
gg_got_a_tesla
Model S: VIN 65513, Model 3: VIN 1913
Not a time for rash decisions indeed. Holding on tight at my position that averages out in the $29-something range. No powder left though to jump in on the new offering.
Halfway happy to hear of some cancellations (hopefully, less than P 1,620 range) to offset the slow rampup so that I can get my car this year...
Halfway happy to hear of some cancellations (hopefully, less than P 1,620 range) to offset the slow rampup so that I can get my car this year...
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Given where the stock is at right now ($28.48), it's actually not that bad. We were in the $27 range just three weeks ago.
I think today has two forces playing, good news from Supercharger Network announcement and bad news from the 8-K. They may have been very smart to time these together, we'll see.
I think today has two forces playing, good news from Supercharger Network announcement and bad news from the 8-K. They may have been very smart to time these together, we'll see.
With all the gobbledegook in the report, I didn't see anything about what I have to do to get in on this. Or will it all be bought by brokers and put onto the general market?
I'd say it's both. Some folks have reported that the new information has pushed the cost over their threshold, but I'll bet there are people who just changed their minds in the long interval, either because their own circumstances changed, or because they've decided on a different EV instead. There's Model X in a year, there's Leaf and iMiev and other choices.
Short-term gamble on a volatile stock is a very risky way to make money for a big purchase. Still, you might get lucky.
The statement says that Elon will buy 33,311 shares for a million dollars, which comes out to $30.02 per share. I'd buy 50 shares at that price if the money goes directly to Tesla. If the shares just go onto the market, I might wait and see what the price does and try to buy on a dip.
So, what does one do to buy into this new issue?
Before they had talked about raising cash to cover a) a cash cushion or, more likely it seemed at the last CC, b) to accelerate Model X R&D.
Given the lowered sales for 2012, is this offering needed for cash? Or can it be used for R&D? It seems likely the weight is shifting towards (a).
Holding here, while the end of 2012 may be skating thin financially, the company itself has had a tremendous 2012 with many pieces coming together for a bright 2013 and on.
Given the lowered sales for 2012, is this offering needed for cash? Or can it be used for R&D? It seems likely the weight is shifting towards (a).
Holding here, while the end of 2012 may be skating thin financially, the company itself has had a tremendous 2012 with many pieces coming together for a bright 2013 and on.
Have to say that the writing was on the wall that Tesla wasn't gonna hit its delivery targets, so this comes as no surprise. But long term that shouldn't change much as long as the delays are for good reason (e.g. Improved quality) and that they quickly rectify it and hit full capacity within the next 3 months.
frequencydip
Sig 100 - #52
Buy the car anyway as a hedge on the stock, if the company fails all cars produced will sharply increase in value off setting an equal weight in stock.
smorgasbord
Active Member
End of Q2 reservation level was 11,500. The new 8K says 2600 reservations taken in Q3, which should bring us to 14,100, but it was only 13,250 (8K reported 13,000 plus 250 delivered cars).
So, that's about 850 cancellations out of about 6000 people asked to configure (according to TMC thread). That's about a 15% cancellation rate. Tesla says the rate will decrease.
So, that's about 850 cancellations out of about 6000 people asked to configure (according to TMC thread). That's about a 15% cancellation rate. Tesla says the rate will decrease.
So the stock drops $2 pre market because of lower 3rd quarter / 2012 production. But no mention about the Superchargers as far as I can see in stock news items. I would think the fact that with a Tesla you can travel free across the entire US in a couple of years( or many local places depending on where you live) I plan on taking many Model S vacations. Money spent on those trips wont be on GAS and maybe I will help local economies out a little
There´s a massive difference between a cushion and a probably life saving infusion of cash.
The sole content of this 8-K document is something that in a professional, obliging PR should´ve been presented mandadory somewhere around mid 2010, when customers where starting to invest both in the cars and in the stock.
To present this now, in the midst of turmoil, seems a) a forced act by the SEC/DOE or b) a sheer act of desperation in the manner of a justification (we told You so, it´s not up to us if we fail).
Either way having the last word:biggrin:
So either Bob Lutz was right back then, we faced a nightmare of execution, or they got screwed by the suppliers/subcontractors at this time.
In any way, it seems that the DOE loan is much more critical to their as they always evoked.
The sole content of this 8-K document is something that in a professional, obliging PR should´ve been presented mandadory somewhere around mid 2010, when customers where starting to invest both in the cars and in the stock.
To present this now, in the midst of turmoil, seems a) a forced act by the SEC/DOE or b) a sheer act of desperation in the manner of a justification (we told You so, it´s not up to us if we fail).
Either way having the last word:biggrin:
So either Bob Lutz was right back then, we faced a nightmare of execution, or they got screwed by the suppliers/subcontractors at this time.
In any way, it seems that the DOE loan is much more critical to their as they always evoked.
There's no revenue from the superchargers and they're an initial outlay of money. Cars are revenue and they lowered the shipping targets, so less revenue.
Long term, the superchargers are good, but you can look at Tesla needing more money, spending on super chargers, and selling fewer cars than projected and wonder if Tesla will live long enough for the super chargers to get used. I'm hopeful, but I think this is 3 or 4 quarters in a row of missed numbers?
Here's the information I see released since 11 eastern last night:
1. Supercharge Network. Free. Plan in two years near full country coverage. Solar Powered. Unofficial indications supercharging will not harm battery. Very big plus.
2. Secondary to raise $125-150 million. Previously disclosed as a possibility. Provides cushion for slower production to ensure quality. Pending a reasonable price of shares in secondary neutral to positive.
3. Potential future additional secondary due to requirements of DOE loan, i.e. not simply a choice Tesla makes of its own. Timeframe if required would seem to be anywhere from 12-18 months from now. While Tesla may be able to renegotiate with DOE and avoid another secondary, I see this as negative news... the fact of unanticipated capital raise (to me anyhow), and the fact that it would be due to bumping into required ratios of loan. This will take some time to get perspective on how much of a negative it is.
4. Deliveries 200+ Q3, 2500-3000 Q4. Many expected, but some will make case to expect numbers to come down more. Filing stated this represents 4 to 5 weeks behind schedule, rather modest. Neutral to somewhat negative.
5. Reiteration of 20,000+ 2013 deliveries. Reassuring, somewhat offsets item 4.
To me long-term super charger very good, but issue of DOE possibly requiring another secondary has some negative overhang. Supercharger great attraction for new customers, DOE issue would affect confidence in viability of Tesla (bit early to get perspective if just a tiny smudge or something that will create material overhang), and with that consumer confidence. So overall my mind says long-term nice improvement in past day, but my gut says, be cautious re developing perception of company’s financial health as news is digested.
Anyone see any other major issues? Overall sense of long-term impact of past day?
1. Supercharge Network. Free. Plan in two years near full country coverage. Solar Powered. Unofficial indications supercharging will not harm battery. Very big plus.
2. Secondary to raise $125-150 million. Previously disclosed as a possibility. Provides cushion for slower production to ensure quality. Pending a reasonable price of shares in secondary neutral to positive.
3. Potential future additional secondary due to requirements of DOE loan, i.e. not simply a choice Tesla makes of its own. Timeframe if required would seem to be anywhere from 12-18 months from now. While Tesla may be able to renegotiate with DOE and avoid another secondary, I see this as negative news... the fact of unanticipated capital raise (to me anyhow), and the fact that it would be due to bumping into required ratios of loan. This will take some time to get perspective on how much of a negative it is.
4. Deliveries 200+ Q3, 2500-3000 Q4. Many expected, but some will make case to expect numbers to come down more. Filing stated this represents 4 to 5 weeks behind schedule, rather modest. Neutral to somewhat negative.
5. Reiteration of 20,000+ 2013 deliveries. Reassuring, somewhat offsets item 4.
To me long-term super charger very good, but issue of DOE possibly requiring another secondary has some negative overhang. Supercharger great attraction for new customers, DOE issue would affect confidence in viability of Tesla (bit early to get perspective if just a tiny smudge or something that will create material overhang), and with that consumer confidence. So overall my mind says long-term nice improvement in past day, but my gut says, be cautious re developing perception of company’s financial health as news is digested.
Anyone see any other major issues? Overall sense of long-term impact of past day?
The Supercharger is nice but when a start up is struggling to meet production goals it's going to be on the forefront of any other news. Tesla desperately needs to get these Model S' out and any failure to do that is going to shake investor confidence even on the heels of the Supercharger network news.
I heard him to say that there might be an upfront charge for 60kWhs, but I'm quite sure that there will be no usage fee. A usage fee would require Tesla to set up a complicated tracking-and-billing system that would be expensive and cumbersome.
So is everybody still long on Tesla? What effect will this news have on their ability to pay back the DOE loans and stay solvent as a company?
I really want to stay long on Tesla but may wait till Q2 2013 before I pick up any more shares. We need to see if they can hit their production target and their margins of 20%.
I really want to stay long on Tesla but may wait till Q2 2013 before I pick up any more shares. We need to see if they can hit their production target and their margins of 20%.
There could be potential smaller revenue streams with the superchargers to help offset the costs:
- Tesla could contact local area businesses to see if they would be willing to contribute to the cost/maintenance etc in return for getting customers. This way the local businesses would have an affluent customer base to buy their goods or services.
- potential for advertisements at kiosk /wifi? - these are already on gas pumps.
Citizen-T
Active Member
What? Yes, of course we are still long. As SteveG3 laid out so nicely, the news from the past 24 hours is net positive. The 8K says that Tesla is working with the DOE on a plan to repay the loan early, does that sound like a company that is concerned about being able to pay the loan back and stay solvent?
I too was caught of guard by the comment about needing to do another secondary to meet the terms of the DOE loan. This is interesting, I wonder what has changed in the plan for 2013 that brought this about. 5 weeks of production delay isn't to blame here. Accelerated GenIII maybe?
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