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TSLA Investor Discussions
- Thread starter Fr23shjive
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I see your fancy chart and I would agree with you if it was 2 months ago. But predicting a fire sale this close to CC is not a wise projection, especially when TSLA is on the verge of being cash flow positive for the remainder of the year with profitability in sight and demand strong. We'll find out next week
They are a >5% owner. As of year end they controlled 6.4 million shares. Nasdaq show they owned 8.4 million shares at 9/30/12 so they reduce their holdings by 930,500 in the fourth quarter. In the third quarter they had increased their shares by 1.88 million.
sp4rk
Banned
In another thread, GasDoc watched the assembly line on a factory tour and noticed they had an 8 minute countdown clock on the sled assembly area. I believe that shows what the maximum current daily production rate would be if you know the shift duration(s).
RT
RT
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
I'm not sure how accurate it is, and the quote was somewhat obscure, but I'm pretty sure he said they were doing 5/12 shifts, which I interpreted to be 5 days a week, 12 hours a day.
That works out to 450 cars per week with an 8 minute increment, and assuming the line doesn't pause for breaks.
Zzzz...
Member
With report that one shift approached production rate of 50 cars a day, 8 minutes target per car makes sense.
Plus there was a statement from top TM management that factory could produce up to 1000 cars a week. With one shift producing 250 units, you can squeeze 4 shifts a week (and four 40 hours shifts is common for highly automated low margin industries like plastic bags/bottles etc production).
K Hall
Member
An 8 minuet takttime is a 20% improvement over the previous reported rate. Impressive! As they automate and improve their processes they will continue to lower that rate. The Toyota Georgetown plant runs a takt time of under one minuet per work cell.
They are probably running the factory to a daily standard production target number with a policy to work overtime daily until the production target is reached. This is how they would overcome any variation in their production cycles. I would be surprised if they worked more than 2 - 10 hour shifts going forward to accommodate the unplanned variation. All breaks and meals would be at the same time for every station to facilitate flow in the lines.
They are probably running the factory to a daily standard production target number with a policy to work overtime daily until the production target is reached. This is how they would overcome any variation in their production cycles. I would be surprised if they worked more than 2 - 10 hour shifts going forward to accommodate the unplanned variation. All breaks and meals would be at the same time for every station to facilitate flow in the lines.
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K Hall
Member
Actually the assembly of the car would be designed to "FLOW" which means all work cells have the same time standard to complete their task. You are correct about the total build time. It would be much longer for an individual car but you would see a unit coming off the line every 8 minutes if the factory was performing well. 400 cars a week has a takt time of one unit every 9 minutes.
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If they are hitting the 8 minuets takt time then they are correct in assuming a run rate of 450 cars a week whch would be very good news indeed.
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Norbert
TSLA will win
Zzzz...
Member
Actually most operations are designed to be performed under common time target for whole assembly line. BMW X3 line iirc were rolling new car ever 128 seconds. That mean that almost all operations were done under 128 seconds and then vehicles move to next stage. Very few operations that require more time are handled by creating a jam, like 4 vehicle on one station with 4 assembly teams working there but each team spend 4*128sec working on a car....
K Hall
Member
Highly unlikely, FLOW means single piece. It is one of the base principles of the TP system to ensure that defects are not passed down the line and there is no waste of excess inventory and idle resources. The whole assembly line works off the same drumbeat.
And what Zzzz said :smile:
I suspect TSLA will be higher tomorrow since Elon has released the nyt data log; how many of you guys found renewed confidence in tesla and Elon after reading the blog which showed the nytimes blatantly lied through their teeth? Elon has all the data to back it up.. I know my confidence sky rocketed! Thanks for all the free press Johnny boy, see you in court!
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
Yeah, I thought he was stretching the truth a bit here and a lot in other places, but if these logs are completely accurate, he was definitely on a mission to defame Tesla and make a sensational story. I expect a prompt resignation and an apology from the NYT.
Generally I agree but...
... this would do a lot of good for the Tesla brand, regardless of the wiggles of the market.
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