TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Zhelko Dimic]

I'm struggling to find a bigger red daily candle $ wise in TSLA history. Anyone else with a bigger screen want to check?

Really ugly candle, but I don't see volume quite supporting it, compared to other really bad candles...

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Really ugly candle, but I don't see volume quite supporting it, compared to other really bad candles...

That's a good point, thanks for pointing that out. Any consolation helps on a day like this.

 

[Bobbyducati]

never thought TSLA would be anywhere near 300 at the end of today. had the chance to close out puts at 5c this morning but was in no rush to act. could be worse tho, i guess.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

So I lost a year's worth of free money today, how is everyone else's day?

Wish I had some dry powder to burn, but I already have all my money in 2020 leaps

Some of my other holdings actually did substantially worse than TSLA today

I'm not concerned in the least. I never invest money that I might need for emergencies or short term purchases, so wild swings in the market have essentially zero effect on my daily operations.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

The problem is that people don't think we'll reach 2500 Model 3/week in March, despite what was reported in the ER.

I'm sensing a different problem in the bigger picture: market participants don't think the bull run in the markets as a whole will last, and there appears to be a panicky breakdown as bots and human traders alike scramble to exit positions.

If things just start to tumble away, I'll be buying, buying, buying all the way down, just like in 2008.

 

[schonelucht]

Am I the only one that finds the irony in Jon McNeill leaving Tesla to become Lyft's COO, when what I think Tesla could really super-seriously use is a COO?

The real irony here is that he is moving to a company that Tesla is actively aiming to put out of business. @JonMc 'd only do it if he doesn't actually believe that Tesla will succeed with their FSD program.

 

[johnnybgood888]

The real irony here is that he is moving to a company that Tesla is actively aiming to put out of business. @JonMc 'd only do it if he doesn't actually believe that Tesla will succeed with their FSD program.

Don't discount the attraction of a C level position. Even if he thinks that Tesla will eventually put Lyft out of business, it will still probably take years to do so. And I'm sure he is given a very nice compensation package.

Also, working for Elon cannot be easy, especially for a front line customer facing position at this point in time in Tesla's lifecycle.

 

[madodel]

I almost feel guilty for already taking delivery on 2 Model 3's. But I want to mention that the wait, even if it is many months later, once you drive your new Model 3 will all seem worth it. I recommend that nobody cancels their reservations. You might be pissed off now, but if you cancel, the months will pass, and as soon as you ride in some friend's Model 3, you will literally sh** in your pants that you had actually cancelled your chance at a Model 3.

I and others went through similar with my Model X. I almost cancelled twice because of the endless delays. I was really pissed but I'm very thrilled everyday that I didn't cancel.

 

[DurandalAI]

When taxes come back, the question is whether to buy some more or just sit on it for a rainy day.... Given the SP, I don’t mind as much that my M3 was delayed. Then again, the SP probably would be higher if not for macro and my M3 being delayed. It’s not a loss until I sell, so I’m just going to hold on, despite the psychological anguish. Shrugs.

 

[schonelucht]

If they can do 2500/week with the current line, why are they not doing it?

Because it involves a semi automatic process which means hiring and training operators. The labour pool around the Gigafactory was already drying up last year. Plus is it really worth to go through those expenses just for a shorter ramp?

 

[AlMc]

Completing the production equipment in the order it is needed would be a seriously bad idea. Instead of having ten 18-24 month development cycles in parallel, and basically be done in two years, you'd take 20+ years. (Actually, you'd probably never finish, as the production equipment produced first would likely be obsolete by the time the last production equipment would be complete...)

I think you misunderstood my point. I believe that all these can be done in parallel (and should be). However, battery packs need to be available before they can be put into a produced car so I would have given that to my 'A' team. While I do not know (if you do please tell me) what company was responsible for battery pack automation I do not think they were Grohmann and whatever company that was served up big time. This should have been given to Grohmann IMO as without a battery pack you have no cars

 

[Yggdrasill]

I think you misunderstood my point. I believe that all these can be done in parallel (and should be). However, battery packs need to be available before they can be put into a produced car so I would have given that to my 'A' team. While I do not know (if you do please tell me) what company was responsible for battery pack automation I do not think they were Grohmann and whatever company that was served up big time. This should have been given to Grohmann IMO as without a battery pack you have no cars

But without cars you don't need the batteries...

Tesla obviously set Grohmann to do the things they considered most difficult and highest risk. And the battery modules weren't one of those components.

 

[ggies07]

I think you misunderstood my point. I believe that all these can be done in parallel (and should be). However, battery packs need to be available before they can be put into a produced car so I would have given that to my 'A' team. While I do not know (if you do please tell me) what company was responsible for battery pack automation I do not think they were Grohmann and whatever company that was served up big time. This should have been given to Grohmann IMO as without a battery pack you have no cars

*sugar*, I'll fly all the way to CA and help pack the cells for them on my car if I could. They could keep working on all the "high-automation" they need and I'll just sit in a corner, put them in one by one. I'll have my car in a day! Don't need no stinkin automation. when you want something done, do it yourself!

 

[Rarity]

Am I the only one that finds the irony in Jon McNeill leaving Tesla to become Lyft's COO, when what I think Tesla could really super-seriously use is a COO?

And then Musk went on to discuss the Tesla Network...

 

[Duffer]

My thoughts regarding the ER:
1) Overall Tesla is in good shape financially, with positive cash flow beginning later this year. (Which since it's Tesla, will probably be rolled into another product resulting in a cash neutral position)
2) Sales of the S & X have not dropped as a result the 3 deliveries. (Great news, and somewhat unexpected even though the target demographic is different)
3) The Energy division has a huge backlog, waiting on ramp up, both for storage and panels/roofs. (Energy will be, IMHO, the BIG source of revenue for Tesla. Even the biggest Tesla haters need electricity and based on what has been accomplished in Australia, if it can be replicated globally, is a huge opportunity.)

Humm, well I have fired 105, 155 and been around 8" cannons, my biggest was an HE Lance Missile and then MLRS rockets. So, I think I like "Rocket Man." Cannons are so yesterday I almost, notice the word "almost," would liked to have been the guy in the space suit seated in the Roadster playing "Space Oddity" by Jim Bowie. While I am a has been Major, my first or user friendly name is not Tom Though I guess MajorTS could work, you know as opposed to my BS

Your point is well taken above. We now live in an environment where we have become numb to all the communication. To the point that today's drop is almost painless. I/we in tactical operations in 1983 noted, as digital intranets (not Internets) expanded, our targeting data grew exponentially to a point of non-action. While my MLRS launchers could swivel and dance firing twelve rockets at twelve different targets within a matter of seconds, once you got to number twelve, it was time to reload. That surge was unsustainable. So, lesson learned, we as humans cannot sustain a prolonged surge in information. At some point the system or we will crash.

Even Monday's stock downer was blamed on AI/computer intelligence in some circles. . .

Today, while possibly coming back from the abyss, everything I watch is red ~ very red. Am I scared, no ~ but today would be a fantastic day to be riding in Elon's Roadster heading towards Mar's listing to Space Oddity. Now, if I could flip the red toggle cover, and then the toggle switch to fire the BFR; that would be the coolest Okay, they probably just have the computer flip the switch (I forgot, is that an "0" or a "1")

Bottom line, it is not just TSLA dragging things down or is that :-( today?

The volume of information available 24/7 can definitely lead to overload resulting in important news items being missed. Though, some items are downplayed/ignored depending on the political views of the news organization. For those of us that are old enough to remember watching coverage of the Vietnam war while sitting at the dinner table, what passes as unbiased journalism today leaves a lot to be desired.

My Ft. Sill experience was introducing privates to Agony, Misery, and Heartbreak as a Drill. For those that have never had the pleasure of taking a "nature" walk at Ft. Sill those are the names of the hills on the way out to/returning from the training areas. Hint, Oklahoma isn't as flat as most people think.

MLRS is a pretty nice toy but I would guess that Atomic Annie is an artilleryman's w*t dream.

 

[Thumper]

I'll take a guess at who might have messed up the module assembly automation. It was likely a company that Tesla was already working with closely for a long time. Someone who Tesla thought could do the job without close supervision. I won't mention any names. In any case in the end, it is a big fail on Tesla for not knowing that such a mission critical machine was unworkable until it was at the factory.

 

[AlMc]

But without cars you don't need the batteries...

Tesla obviously set Grohmann to do the things they considered most difficult and highest risk. And the battery modules weren't one of those components.

We are getting into a 'chicken or the egg' discussion. Bottom line, it would have been nice to have the company Tesla specifically bought to help with high automation equipment be put in charge of the battery module production equipment. I have no idea IF they had the time and/or what other task they were asked to perform instead.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Wont be selling any shares so paper gain/loss. For a fact I know I’ll be sleeping like a baby tonight. On the bright side I saw my first blue M3 in person that I can take a photo of! Looks to be freshly delivered with the paper floor mat. VIN 4243.

 

[myusername]

Take a deep breathe... The $35k is 6 months away. Does it suck that it is late? Sure, for people who are waiting for it, but in the long run, it makes zero difference. Now, if Elon and Co. completely mess up their execution and the company runs out of money before then, then it is on them, and on us putting that much faith in them, and I will be the first to eat crow. Until then, it's just hot air from the likes of you, and the ultra bulls in here.

I completely disagree. For some reason the belief is that time is not a factor. It's the MOST SIGNIFICANT factor. If Tesla becomes the size of BMW in 3 years versus 10 years... time is absolutely a factor.

6 months for mass market priced M3? That means Tesla begins scaling in late 2018. Meaning 2020 objectives are shot. Meaning 2021/22 objectives are shot. Meaning EXACTLY what I predicted on this board for the last 2 years will be the result. Tesla becomes the size of BMW in 2025.

Which means you pay BMW prices for TLSA today with the hopes that they will EXCEEED BMW as a company at some point in time and grow well beyond them. But when?

If you're belief is that it doesn't matter when... then you have completely misunderstood what you're risking when holding a growth company stock .

 

[SteveG3]

I completely disagree. For some reason the belief is that time is not a factor. It's the MOST SIGNIFICANT factor. If Tesla becomes the size of BMW in 3 years versus 10 years... time is absolutely a factor.

6 months for mass market priced M3? That means Tesla begins scaling in late 2018. Meaning 2020 objectives are shot. Meaning 2021/22 objectives are shot. Meaning EXACTLY what I predicted on this board for the last 2 years will be the result. Tesla becomes the size of BMW in 2025.

Which means you pay BMW prices for TLSA today with the hopes that they will EXCEEED BMW as a company at some point in time and grow well beyond them. But when?

If you're belief is that it doesn't matter when... then you have completely misunderstood what you're risking when holding a growth company stock .

There was no change announced yesterday as to Tesla's expectations of Model 3 production, this year, or any year forward. New information disclosed yesterday means vehicles delivered this year will have a higher ASP than previously expected, and so 2018 revenues will be higher than expectations prior to yesterday, but, there was no change in guidance re vehicles to be produced.