TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[johnnybgood888]

4:00 PM

Did you forget AH?

 

[Tenable]

4:00 PM

8pm.

 

[candersoh]

anyone adding around here?

 

[gtrplyr1]

OUCH.

Just gotta say this : As Rome burns ... our fearless leader has been

1) Selling Flamethrowers

2) Putting cars in SPACE ?

Obviously he does not seem worried .... therefore I'm not.

Now .. how foolish am I ? I guess we will see.

Ouch ...again.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

anyone adding around here?

Some at $320.
Next tranche at $311, if we get there.
I guess I'm committed to catch that falling knife. But I haven't been buying for almost a year because of fears that ramp could get screwed up, and at this point I see light at the end of the tunnel, and can endure few months of dark...

 

[supratachophobia]

It's rather disappointing to see so many long-standing members of this forum be surprised by the ER and the comments from the management yesterday. I guess I'm lucky to have been able to adjust my expectations accordingly through repeated target delays, with both Tesla and SpaceX (there's a very good reason for that commonality, can you guess what?).

Elon Musk is a visionary, a designer and an engineer. What he still isn't, however, is a good planning manager. How many times do people need to be reminded of the sad truth that EM takes the time required to achieve a goal under optimal conditions, and then shortens it expecting people to work extra-hard / overtime etc.? It's enough to listen to him on the conference call yesterday to see the inner conflict between him trying to put forward achievable timelines and his incurable optimism that all the hard stuff is behind and the future brings only smooth sailing.

For instance: the battery pack assembly machine is completed and working at Grohmann in Germany. They expect it in Nevada sometime next month, so that's March. That equipment is necessary to achieve 2500/week production rates. And the management is guiding for hitting that rate by the end of Q1? C'mon, how many things can go wrong with that? It would be super-lucky for them to be able to set up the equipment, get it started and optimise the whole process for hitting that rate all within a couple of weeks!

The one thing that really got to me: him talking about how all the other OEMs not even being aware of the potential improvements in production speed! Tesla is still far from matching the production speed of others! Of course I am convinced he has a clear plan to bring about major breakthroughs in production speed and efficiency, but it really would serve him well to save these comments until after he's achieved these goals! Rant over.

I sold some other stock yesterday in preparation for the post-ER dip. I don't believe we've hit bottom yet, it might happen tomorrow or next week. I can't think of any impending good news (other than AP progress / updates) that would make the SP jump higher in the short term. So I'm still waiting to buy. I'm long, in case it wasn't obvious.

It still boggles my mind how no one remembers the dips after earnings almost every quarter.

 

[EinSV]

anyone adding around here?

Bought a few shares at $319.xx. Will probably convert some shares to ITM LEAPs if it keeps dropping.

Edit: given what's happening with macros not clear to me we are at or near the bottom.

 

[Jayjs20]

So I lost a year's worth of free money today, how is everyone else's day?

Wish I had some dry powder to burn, but I already have all my money in 2020 leaps

 

[SPadival]

That's interesting. European (LHD) orders were moved from "Late 2018" to "Early 2019" and the delivery estimator never showed a breakdown for the specific models. With previous cars they launched LHD was always before RHD countries. Does anyone from the UK have an earlier estimate than "Early 2019"?

I double checked because I am surprised too. 31st March non owner.. not that it makes any difference at this point in time.

 

[SteveG3]

anyone adding around here?

just did added trading shares at $317.x. first batch of trading shares added at $326.x ready if more opportunities arise.

 

[jhm]

Dang, these prices are getting good. Might have to get me some.

Edit.
Yup, got some at $315.135.

 

[Intl Professor]

anyone adding around here?

If I had ANY dry powder, I would. This is cheap!! (Been investing since 2010; last purchase, $340.25, average purchase $73. TT007 would laugh—with pity?—at total number of shares.)

 

[SteveG3]

Dang, these prices are getting good. Might have to get me some.

they are good, but, not crazy good. no guarantees we see crazy good, but, we might.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I'm struggling to find a bigger red daily candle $ wise in TSLA history. Anyone else with a bigger screen want to check?

 

[Big Earl]

they are good, but, not crazy good. no guarantees we see crazy good, but, we might.

Good enough for me to pick up a few shares today. Unfortunately I bought throughout the day on the way down, so I'm at a loss for the day, but at least I'm in!

 

[johnnybgood888]

Macros were bad for the market overall, but TSLA big drop I'm sure is compounded by the fact that shares are released back out to the shorts today. Hopefully Papafox can shed some light on this.

Also hoping that the shorts have used up THEIR dry powder today, because I'm a couple of dollars drop shy of a margin call.

 

[Tslynk67]

Just to put in perspective, the SP is still higher than the close on December 29th, what 25-ish trading days ago? And this is bombing on the back of a general dive - never forget that when it drops, TSLA tends to drop more.

I still state that I saw very little in yesterday's ER/C to cause much poor sentiment.

So enough of all the shoe-gazing, get a grip of yourselves!

 

[JRP3]

Grabbed a handful at $315.72

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I'm not always subscribing to the 'shorts-at-fault' theory, but today I think we saw shorts raid helped by return of shares to borrow.
Which makes me think bounce-back could be ferocious too.
Again, no crystal ball, I'm ready to ride (and buy more) SP down for awhile, should need be...

 

[EnergyMax]

The problem is that people don't think we'll reach 2500 Model 3/week in March, despite what was reported in the ER.