TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[johnnybgood888]

I completely disagree. For some reason the belief is that time is not a factor. It's the MOST SIGNIFICANT factor. If Tesla becomes the size of BMW in 3 years versus 10 years... time is absolutely a factor.

6 months for mass market priced M3? That means Tesla begins scaling in late 2018. Meaning 2020 objectives are shot. Meaning 2021/22 objectives are shot. Meaning EXACTLY what I predicted on this board for the last 2 years will be the result. Tesla becomes the size of BMW in 2025.

Which means you pay BMW prices for TLSA today with the hopes that they will EXCEEED BMW as a company at some point in time and grow well beyond them. But when?

If you're belief is that it doesn't matter when... then you have completely misunderstood what you're risking when holding a growth company stock .

You might want to re-read my statement. I was referring to the $35k model being late for the people who wants that model, not the overall ramp of model 3. As some has already said, the ER call yesterday re-iterated their guidance on the ramp for this quarter and next, so unless something changes, we still expect 5000/wk by end of Q2. Whether that 5000/wk is a mix of the more expensive models or not does not matter, since they are all spoken for anyway. They don't need to ramp up the $35k model to be considered mass market.

Now, I am actually one of probably a few here who occasionally appreciates your contrarian views, you clearly are quite bright and have done your homework, but I do find that you have a tendency to misrepresent certain facts, whether on purpose or by accident to make your points.

You yourself has agreed that this is a growth company, so why are you using only traditional metrics to judge them?

 

[BornToFly]

This was by far the biggest paper loss day I have every had. In the past I would have happily ridden it out. The problem now is that I sold a lot of Jan 19 Puts in the last month which are down big right now. I am confident that in 10 months they will be fine, but I am going to get a huge margin call next week. I will have to sell a lot of shares to meet the Margin call, and then buy them back at a higher price once the Margin call goes away. I was not aware that this would happen since I was no longer buying anything on Margin. Live and learn....

 

[johnnybgood888]

The other: "3 months, 6 months at the outside"

View attachment 279010

I bet Deepak and JB are probably cringing when he said that. He just couldn't help himself, Elon gonna elon.

 

[RiverCard]

The real irony here is that he is moving to a company that Tesla is actively aiming to put out of business. @JonMc 'd only do it if he doesn't actually believe that Tesla will succeed with their FSD program.

Last summer this plan sounded like a retention incentive--How much did he earn?

"On August 18, 2017, Tesla entered into an incentive compensation plan (the “ Compensation Plan ”) with Jon McNeill, Tesla’s President, Global Sales and Service, pursuant to which Mr. McNeill will be eligible to receive variable compensation upon the achievement of certain target levels of (i) vehicle deliveries during the third and fourth quarters of 2017, (ii) operational and financial metrics relating to vehicle service performance and costs during 2017, and (iii) customer satisfaction scores during 2017, with an aggregate target payout amount of $700,000. The specific target levels pursuant to the Compensation Plan are to be separately determined, and payments pursuant to the Compensation Plan will be made in cash, stock options or restricted stock units."

 

[myusername]

You might want to re-read my statement. I was referring to the $35k model being late for the people who wants that model, not the overall ramp of model 3. As some has already said, the ER call yesterday re-iterated their guidance on the ramp for this quarter and next, so unless something changes, we still expect 5000/wk by end of Q2. Whether that 5000/wk is a mix of the more expensive models or not does not matter, since they are all spoken for anyway. They don't need to ramp up the $35k model to be considered mass market.

Now, I am actually one of probably a few here who occasionally appreciates your contrarian views, you clearly are quite bright and have done your homework, but I do find that you have a tendency to misrepresent certain facts, whether on purpose or by accident to make your points.

You yourself has agreed that this is a growth company, so why are you using only traditional metrics to judge them?

good question. sincerely. and thanks for the acknowledgement.

I don't only use traditional metrics to judge them. I've stated repeatedly that this company is not worth it's current value with respect to traditional auto companies. it's worth much more than that.

but what I do is start with what it's worth in comparison... then extrapolate due to reasonable speculation.

starting with the latter, it hurts I know, but it looks like this:

TSLA has a current value when directly compared to it's sector of a $12B market cap. That's $70 PPS. That's a raw direct comparison to how virtually ALL auto companies currently trade.

Then I ask, are ALL auto companies currently trading lower than they should?... answer, no. it's a tough industry filled with large scale high volume competition. so, there's nothing that suggests there's some sort of massive mis-valuation of the existing industry.

Then I consider the qualitative value of speculation warranted for TSLA based on historical performance of growth targets... and I ask myself, is anything beyond double the current value warranted?

I have no reason to suggest so. Give me a reason... Space Man?... $60m in TE revs? Certainly not M3 success... Certainly not modest MS/MX growth...

so, my valuation based on current risk of continuous failed performance is zero more than double current value...

or $140 PPS.

and I'm absolutely certain that TSLA will not trade higher than its current PPS in 2020. they are currently "transforming" from a hyper growth company to a "traditional" auto company. where the PPS will either land between $75 and $100 or they'll show some sort of TE growth where they'll be able to maintain a greater than $125 PPS into the 2020s.

 

[Zaxxon]

The other: "3 months, 6 months at the outside"

View attachment 279010

No, double facepalm is not enough. That was the last 3-6 mo estimate, for cross-country drive. Single facepalm was somewhere in the early Model X ramp.

This calls for...

Elon Time™ has officially morphed into Ludicrous Time™ for me. Future estimates that do not align with visible evidence are to be summarily doubled rather than simply pushed out slightly.

 

[JRP3]

Elon Time™ has officially morphed into Ludicrous Time™ for me.

Could still jump to Plaid Time™

 

[Zaxxon]

Followed by Maximum Plaid ®.

 

[Buddyroe]

So sad that even on the biggest Tesla fan website of all, people speak so poorly of Elon's projections. Surely, he's got to realize that basically NOBODY puts much stock in his time estimates.

He really needs to be on target, or at least somewhat close on a few things and regain some respect for his projections. It's really getting ridiculous. We all know that "things happen" that cause delays. But at some point, you need to factor in those "things happen" when you determine your time estimates.

Will anyone ever actually hold EM responsible for all of these horribly missed projections? My only questions is, can anyone remember the last time something happened within even 200% of the duration that EM projected? I know I can't. 1/2 of what he states NEVER happens (charging snake, swap stations) and the other half is very late, and often time only half of what he said it would be (AP2 for example).

Who's betting that the new Navigation Elon promised (light years better than anything ever seen before) will actually be seen in a car in 2018?

I love my Tesla, and it's the best car I've ever had (think horseless carriage to a horse and buggy), but I've NEVER seen a company completely exist on the dangling carrot business model. When you fail to deliver on last year's promises, never mention those, and instead, promise something bigger for next year. Rinse and repeat. Tesla produced its first own car in 2012. 6 years later, it can't even put a decent infotainment system in a car.

Come on Elon. Make a plan - and make it happen! Or get out of the way and let someone else give it a shot!

 

[bdy0627]

I'll have to check my medications, they may be responsible for what I'm about to say, but I'm feeling slightly spooked and mostly excited.
The way I see today is that this drop gave me opportunity to leverage at the time I judge appropriate for it.
If we go up, I'll make bunch of money and take some leverage off the table at $360.
If we stay flat, I'm good waiting; my DITM options have almost no time value.
If we go down, I'm ready for another round of leveraging.
If we go down again, I have $500K HLOC line that I haven't used since the end of '16; last time I used it was when we dropped to $150 Feb '16, and I retired it at the end of the same year around $220.

Edit: No, TT007 didn't hijack my account! It's just that my 'Elon will screw up execution' buffer has almost run-out dry!

Hmm, I hadn't thought about going all the way to a HLOC for extra leverage. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.

 

[bdy0627]

personally i think this is a big drop more based on market volatility than anything else. I expect the overall market to be rocky for the next couple of weeks, or at least until we see if this is a temporary dip or if something larger is going on.

I'm holding on to dry powder, but may start to buy LEAPS in stages starting next week.

Man you've got incredible stamina with your powder! That's awesome.

 

[bdy0627]

This was by far the biggest paper loss day I have every had. In the past I would have happily ridden it out. The problem now is that I sold a lot of Jan 19 Puts in the last month which are down big right now. I am confident that in 10 months they will be fine, but I am going to get a huge margin call next week. I will have to sell a lot of shares to meet the Margin call, and then buy them back at a higher price once the Margin call goes away. I was not aware that this would happen since I was no longer buying anything on Margin. Live and learn....

Sorry to hear it. You know how it is though, TSLA can go up pretty darn fast out of the blue, especially with shorts back big time. Better times are just around the corner.

 

[30seconds]

Last summer this plan sounded like a retention incentive--How much did he earn?

"On August 18, 2017, Tesla entered into an incentive compensation plan (the “ Compensation Plan ”) with Jon McNeill, Tesla’s President, Global Sales and Service, pursuant to which Mr. McNeill will be eligible to receive variable compensation upon the achievement of certain target levels of (i) vehicle deliveries during the third and fourth quarters of 2017, (ii) operational and financial metrics relating to vehicle service performance and costs during 2017, and (iii) customer satisfaction scores during 2017, with an aggregate target payout amount of $700,000. The specific target levels pursuant to the Compensation Plan are to be separately determined, and payments pursuant to the Compensation Plan will be made in cash, stock options or restricted stock units."

Lyft isn't going out of business anytime soon. How long will it be until Tesla has millions of cars on the road and in the network? I don't know, but probably at least five years from now.

 

[30seconds]

Man you've got incredible stamina with your powder! That's awesome.

Had a bunch of LEAPS roll off in Jan and have been sitting on the cash. Was waiting for the real Model 3 ramp to show up, but may just buy some soon based on price

 

[JRP3]

Will anyone ever actually hold EM responsible for all of these horribly missed projections?

Not as long as they eventually deliver on the main objectives. Roadster, S, and X were all late and had problems.

1/2 of what he states NEVER happens (charging snake, swap stations)

Did he ever say when the snake would be available? I don't remember that. A swap station was opened and demand was very limited and not worth the hassle of the logistics.

Come on Elon. Make a plan - and make it happen!

He does, slowly.

Or get out of the way and let someone else give it a shot!

Good way to instantly tank the stock price.

 

[SteveG3]

[snip]

Will anyone ever actually hold EM responsible for all of these horribly missed projections?

[snip]

Indeed, of all the multibillionaires toiling away 100 hours a week who have made me more money than I'll ever need, Elon is at the bottom of the list in terms of accurately forecasting just when he will deliver products no one else on the planet will for years.

 

[Buddyroe]

Good way to instantly tank the stock price.

If something doesn't happen soon, the stock price will eventually reach zero anyway. I'd rather take a hit now and then see steady growth.

Obviously, based on your continued drinking of the kool-aid, you haven't been reading what MANY owners/investors are starting to believe - that Elon is full of promises and never delivers. Just go read the comments for the article on Electrek about the Navigation update. It was basically a bunch of owners making fun of EM's promise of an improved navigation system. And I'm seeing this MORE and MORE on every site - especially in the Model S and Model X forums on THIS website. Do you ever read anything besides the investors threads?

More importantly, do you own a Tesla? I'm not being facetious - owning and driving this car opened up my eyes to the reality that Tesla/Musk created an amazing car - but the peripherals/accessories and customer support totally SUCK! As an investor, I've always used an investment philosophy of investing in companies whose products/services I love. With Tesla, I invested on the belief that I would love their product, their customer service philosophy, their direct-sales model, and the promise of sustainable transportation. They have a GREAT base product (the actual car), but not much more. Basically NOTHING more - terrible infotainment system, piss-poor customer service, can't get parts, owner line hangs up on you, AP2 has NEVER met expectations....the list goes on and on. If the car wasn't so damn incredible to drive, Tesla would have been out of business after 1000 cars. But, the M3 buyers WILL NOT be as patient as the MS and MX buyers. They don't love Tesla. They are buying the car for the car. They will get a load of that POS Slacker Radio and say, "no thank you."

Tesla Improved Navaigation

Oh, and by the way, when you tweet that you are working on a product and show a video of it to your customers, that is basically setting the expectation that it will be available some day. Why else would you even mention it?

"Btw, we are actually working on a charger that automatically moves out from the wall & connects like a solid metal snake. For realz."

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Waiting4M3]

So sad that even on the biggest Tesla fan website of all, people speak so poorly of Elon's projections. Surely, he's got to realize that basically NOBODY puts much stock in his time estimates.

Speak for your self, buddy. I for one am just happy to keep quiet and let Elon and his people do their thing but I want to chime in here to set the record straight. Talking on internet means nothing. The stocks that I've been buying and holding since 2014 do.

 

[schonelucht]

Which company?

Lyft.

 

[Krugerrand]

There are less battery cells in the SR than LR, which one would think would be easier to put into a pack..... it's just for profit.

Or you’re wrong and the majority of people currently deferring have specified they want AWD over SR battery.

Just take a break from the forum for a bit, have a brewsky, and revel in the fact you’re even alive to enjoy the sun on your face because perspective.