TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[defc0n]

I don’t understand why people respond to these posts. The best response is to ignore them. Trolls will get bored without anyone responding. I don’t believe anyone posting here has any significant response from share price. Ignoring these posters is the most potent weapon in your arsenal and a conscious action on your part to combat them. Imagine trump with no twitter followers. An ideal world

I’ll actually disagree in this specific circumstance. @neroden s rebuttal was very useful for me to read.

 

[SteveG3]

Agree. The faster moving EV makers will soon dominate the field which can cause an acceleration of total EVs. This is also happening with renewable energy. Wind has dominated GW added each year, but cumulative solar grows at 30%/y while cumulative wind grows about 10%/y. So there will be a crossover soon. Solar will lead with GW added and as a group renewable growth will accelerate.

Year to date plugin sales are up 74% over prior year. China and Tesla are starting to pull away from the pack. And so the race speeds up.

I think I may set up a thread to delve into this.

Not sure exactly what you have in mind re a thread, but, I think a thread on where supply is ramping up (region and automaker analysis), at what pace, and for sale in what markets could be very helpful in understanding Tesla's open growth runway.

 

[ZachShahan]

This is actually what I take from the surveys: more and more people realize that electric cars are a *thing*. In 2013 when I got my Model S, the percentage of people who didn't know that electric cars *existed* was *enormous*. This is ending.

Be careful. If you look into some of these surveys closely, it's clear a lot of people conflate hybrids like the Prius with electric cars.

But, yeah, awareness must be rising.

 

[jhm]

Not sure exactly what you have in mind re a thread, but, I think a thread on where supply is ramping up (region and automaker analysis), at what pace, and for sale in what markets could be very helpful in understanding Tesla's open growth runway.

EV Market Share

Check it out. The focus is on who is leading the global EV market by share and how concentrate this market may become. Tesla is very close to becoming #1.

 

[sundaymorning]

EV Market Share

Check it out. The focus is on who is leading the global EV market by share and how concentrate this market may become. Tesla is very close to becoming #1.

We still haven’t delivered Model 3 to Europe, yet. Once we do the #1 spot will belong to Tesla. Once we deliver to China things should get really interesting.

 

[30seconds]

You can actually often sell after all the evidence of the collapse is right in front of you. From 2008, I sold my financial stocks *after* the Lehman Brothers failure and I *still* avoided most of the crash.

I remember the day when I was getting ready to go to work and watching the CEO of Bear Sterns defending his company’s liquidity on CNBC. I’m not in the financial industry but whoo boy was that was a blazing red flag

 

[sundaymorning]

Tripp's lawyer sure is tweeting a lot. Seems to me he is making an effort to try to sway public opinion towards his client.
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To me yapping and yapping about the case just shows a lot of weakness. This lawyer is a typical opportunist pocketing money from Tripp’s ego. Tesla is going to show the judge all the VIN data’s registered with the DMV and it’ll be an open shut case, they can opt to drag this case out in order to make an example out of Trip by dragging him through the mud. There’s a lot of things that a low level employee like Tripp doesn’t know, he may have access to some of the data, but how he interprets it will likely be far from the reality.

 

[lklundin]

Everyone’s tagging this post as “funny”. It isn’t satire, CNN actually posted that headline. The article’s current headline is toned down slightly to: SpaceX’s latest rocket recovery gambit misses.

Real journalism is just dead, dead, dead, if it ever was alive. If all the news you know about is reported with such slanted coverage, you can be pretty sure the rest of the news is the same.

I am genuinely curious about that. Luckily, the journalist is on twitter, so I just went and asked what is up with the change of headline. I am not absolutely certain I will get no answer...

 

[lklundin]

You can actually often sell after all the evidence of the collapse is right in front of you. From 2008, I sold my financial stocks *after* the Lehman Brothers failure and I *still* avoided most of the crash.

Interesting. I think [Loss aversion - Wikipedia] causes many investors to remain long at the down-played risk of a major loss as opposed to actually realizing a smaller loss (which a well diversified investor can offset tax-wise by also realizing some capital gains). I was lucky that when the dot.com bubble burst I had most of my funds tied up in real-estate, so I learned that valuable lesson with a relatively small loss.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

I honestly don't understand what you mean by this. This whole tax credit thing will go away soon enough anyway, but *what* was going on? I understand that 3rd party lessors claimed the $7500 credit and then leased it based on that reduced initial value... are you saying Tesla didn't do the same thing (because they should have been able to)? What am I missing?

Maybe that the third party lessors took the credit because they were profitable. Tesla couldn't because it's in loss, but priced as if it could to be competitive?

 

[Tslynk67]

EV Market Share

Check it out. The focus is on who is leading the global EV market by share and how concentrate this market may become. Tesla is very close to becoming #1.

That's Jan - May data, add in June and I think Tesla is already numero uno. And it's going to get wider and wider with every passing month.

Exciting times folks!

 

[Phrixotrichus]

My mother called me yesterday almost screaming about me having to sell my Tesla shares immediately because she just read in several articles that Tesla was having liquidity issues and was close to going bankrupt.

Being a very educated person, a judge actually, I kinda hoped she`d be a bit more resistant to the press bullshit, but yeah..the media over here is spewing FUD on a 24/7 basis again. It`s gotten really bad over the past few months.

Meanwhile the first i-pace reviews rolled in and it kind of confirms that the classic manufacturers still don`t get what EVs are all about. The "classic" overloaded design completely ruins the cw value and hence kills the efficiency with that thing being ~30% less efficient than a Model X and ~44% less efficient than an S.
Now when looking at the upcoming EVs from the german premium brands with their "tall strong aggressive shapes"...go figure.
Those cars will be about even in range with the 75 models from Tesla despite having 95+kwh batteries. Add to that that they`re f**** beyond repair due to the current european charging standards being slow as f*** and new infrastructure probably being years away and you know why the production number targets are as ridiculously low as they are.
Heck Audi/Merc and Co don`t even trust their tech to be "Autobahn-proof" yet and will release their EVs in the markets around germany first. Can you imagine that?

Kinda looks like I´ll be buying a Model 3 in 2019 (hopefully available then) in addition to more Tesla shares. If the FUD doesn`t win and they can get over their production problems Tesla will steamroll the EV markets where the Model 3 is actually available.

 

[Tslynk67]

Here's an interesting Twitter thread stating the bull case, with projections. Maybe one of you is the author...?

Worth a read in any case...

Smack Check on Twitter

 

[Words of HABIT]

AMZN up 4.37% pre-market (that's a $38.4B market cap gain) after posting better than expected ER results.
Where FB pushed Mr. Market down yesterday, I believe AMZN will push Mr. Market trend up today.
This bodes especial well for TSLA.

 

[hobbes]

Wouldn’t surprise me if BMW, Volkswagen and Mercedes with backing from German Govt created a charging consortium.

Like this one ?!
Tesla is reportedly in talks to join Ionity charging network along with other automakers

 

[Reciprocity]

Any implications for BFR intercontinental trips?

Whhhhhaaat? Can't tell if you are joking. The faring covers the payload.. Satalite in most cases, and the recovery is to save money. Reach faring is $5M. A BFR trip that does not deploy a satalite wouldn't use a faring. It goes up and comes down with people in it.

This article is a joke because it's never been done by anyone and only attempted by space x. Yet the article reads like it's some kind boondoggle and a failure. It's one of the stupidest headlines I have ever seen. Cnn really is fake news.

 

[Tslynk67]

Folks, I believe the short and bears have actually gone insane. Here they are on Twitter, yesterday, actually debating that Elon is selling his $TSLA and buying the M3's himself. Seriously, you really couldn't make this stuff up if you tried.

"Elon Says" on Twitter

 

[mongo]

Whhhhhaaat? Can't tell if you are joking. The faring covers the payload.. Satalite in most cases, and the recovery is to save money. Reach faring is $5M. A BFR trip that does not deploy a satalite wouldn't use a faring. It goes up and comes down with people in it.

@brian45011

It's even less relevent than that. The satellite delivery version of the BFS does not have a detachable fairing. It has an opening/ closing bay door instead.

And that's assuming BFR had major bearing on Market Action...

 

[Unpilot]

Folks, I believe the short and bears have actually gone insane. Here they are on Twitter, yesterday, actually debating that Elon is selling his $TSLA and buying the M3's himself. Seriously, you really couldn't make this stuff up if you tried.

"Elon Says" on Twitter

Once a person falls down a conspiracy theory hole it is very hard to pull them out of it.

And damn you for making me click a twitter link!

 

[Dan Detweiler]

So what are the chances of short/bear attack this morning heading into the wrekend?

Dan