TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Chickenlittle]

I love betting against what “everyone knows”

Anybody else with the courage of their convictions?

 

[TradingInvest]

You would think that but...

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After following Tesla for many years, I know as a fact that in the end shorts are always wrong, Tesla is right. But shorts will forget it, move to the next lie. Unfortunately this technic does get a lot of people.

 

[Remus]

Top trade ins
Toyota Prius
BMW 3
Honda Accord
Honda Civic
Nissan Leaf

Not your traditional luxury buyer. I turned in BMW 3 series lease when moving into the Model 3.

This is the single biggest news! Honda has much bigger market share than BMW.

 

[Intl Professor]

Here's after hours close:

https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/after-hours

Over three million shares traded. Estimates, only by inspection, a normal day seldom reaches 50,000, sometimes close to 90,000. I've seen 200,000 or so. Never this much. I'm just an amateur investor, but this may be important. Papafox will have more soon.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

People on r/wallstreetbets are losing their $&#% over the conference call and after hours price action.

A number of people got whacked real bad on puts... some bought on margin. I would post the link but the obscene and offensive language is not family friendly!

 

[ZachShahan]

Hmm taking a Q from CleanTechnica

dude, i told you guys to give me your Qs

 

[MikeC]

Hmmm, Twitter shorts are gloating about the ER. Maybe I won't be trimming any calls tomorrow.

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Hope you didn’t lighten up on your calls. I wonder if that short is posting screenshots from this thread today? Can’t say we didn’t warn him.

 

[MikeC]

dude, i told you guys to give me your Qs

Well done, Zach.

 

[sub]

People on r/wallstreetbets are losing their $&#% over the conference call and after hours price action.

A number of people got whacked real bad on puts... some bought on margin.

I had puts too....oh wait, I sold them to the short suckers! Love it when a plan comes together. I feel bad taking advantage of the intellectually challenged but someone has to do it.

 

[ZachShahan]

11Q: Cleantechnica: Conquest sales. Camry sales down 23% YoY, Prius down 20% YoY.

Elon: We don't track that very well. Long term will do Model Y, pickup truck, semi, etc. Biggest limiter is how fast can we grow cell production and battery production. [Reading between the lines, they can't build everything they want without faster ramping battery supply]. Cell starved for Powerwall right now. Several hundred homes with Solarroof right now. Still working through validation issues for 30 year life.

Right now biggest constraint on Model 3 production (will be solved in a matter of weeks) is body production. First 24 hour period that we made 800 Model 3 bodies just recently.

yeah, he basically answered several Qs that were further down on my list there. seemed he felt an opening to run with some extra info he wanted to include, which was great of course.

am still curious what models Model 3 is pulling from.

also, i intended to give ValueAnalyst credit for the Toyota info there, but my head got lost in the clouds a bit and i was trying to rush through my Qs to let him talk and get to other ones.

 

[ZachShahan]

Well done, Zach.

i honestly felt like i was an idiot on the call — too many Qs and thoughts and too little time — but such is life.

Just tried to prioritize what I thought would have most impact and use in 2-3 min timeframe.

 

[Joe F]

Great clip! Someone should lob that over to the twitter shorts with their shorty air force flying over thousands of Teslas daily, SEC violation theories, lawsuits, fraud, serious demand problems, and all the other BS they spout about every day. They were absolutely salivating over this ER.

Hear that sound? Shorts, choking on their own saliva.

 

[Remus]

No timeline, no real-life capabilities except the 'order of magnitude more NN processing power'.

NN processing power is real life capabilities! And it's not like they will produce the silicone in house, timeline will be chip I standard.

 

[ZachShahan]

Here's after hours close:

https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/after-hours

Over three million shares traded. Estimates, only by inspection, a normal day seldom reaches 50,000, sometimes close to 90,000. I've seen 200,000 or so. Never this much. I'm just an amateur investor, but this may be important. Papafox will have more soon.

Holy *sugar*.

Well, I think it's safe to say that most things beat expectations.
— $2.2 billion cash
— profitable forever (except in unique cases — paying back big loans, global recession, Zombie Apocalypse)
— production growing, efficiency improving, tent is staying
— demand is insane, for everything.
— Elon is nice. apologizes to analysts.

Shorts are screwed. Time has come. They better get out now! (not investment advice, just sayin')

 

[Nakata]

i honestly felt like i was an idiot on the call — too many Qs and thoughts and too little time — but such is life.

Just tried to prioritize what I thought would have most impact and use in 2-3 min timeframe.

I loved your short tease comment!

 

[RobStark]

This is the single biggest news! Honda has much bigger market share than BMW.

Prius
BMW 3 Series.
Honda Accord
Honda Civic

Those are at the top of the sales charts in CA( for cars not Trucks,SUVs, CUVs).

Plus the LEAF.

Not a coincidence.

Prius and LEAF is pulling in the environmentalist buyer.

The 3, Accord and Civic the performance buyer.

Accord and Civic probably the performance buyer that is now older with a better job. I think that is why Accord and Civic are there but not Camry and Corolla.

 

[ZachShahan]

That was far and above the best conference call Elon and team have ever given.

Seemed like they were reading suggestions here.

 

[ZachShahan]

So the play for next few months. I believe November when cash flow positive gets announced. Stock price finally reaches $400. That's when the short squeeze starts.

If any of you bought long term calls before ER, I'd aim to sell some calls OTM around that time. For sure the volatility will be high then.

"Stock price finally reaches $400. That's when the short squeeze starts."
— I'd believe that. But do you have some more specific rationale for it?

 

[gringotuanis]

i honestly felt like i was an idiot on the call — too many Qs and thoughts and too little time — but such is life.

Just tried to prioritize what I thought would have most impact and use in 2-3 min timeframe.

Nah you're questions were fine. Didn't sound bad we all could tell you're just trying to beat the clock before they cut you off.

 

[jhm]

DEEP question from Jonas-the-Deep:

Who do you think will be a more formidable competitor to Tesla? BMW or... Amazon?!​

Hey Elon, Ginger or Maryann?