TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Jayjs20]

People on r/wallstreetbets are losing their $&#% over the conference call and after hours price action.

A number of people got whacked real bad on puts... some bought on margin. I would post the link but the obscene and offensive language is not family friendly!

See, I don't know where my sympathy should start and end.

There are people who have an irrational hatred for TSLA, whom I don't feel any sympathy for. But, if there's a not-so savy investor who constantly hear things like 'losing money for every car they make', 'will run out of money in under a year', etc etc, it would make sense for that person to short TSLA. Then he'll lose a ton of money, go to the forums to complain, then get laughed at. I can't help but feel sympathy for people like that.

 

[BornToFly]

I think we finish the week over 320. I believe it was the "analyst" for USB that said Tesla will have less than 1 Billion in cash. I think they ended the quarter with over 2.2 Billion. I predict that the letter says they are already cash flow positive this quarter, with over 22,000 Model 3 sales in July. They will remind everyone that Model 3 sales completely destroys the numbers from BMW, Mercedes, and Audi. Reservations at all time high. Current steady state production at over 5,000/weeks (maybe 5,500). I think Elon's short burn starts at 4:00pm Eastern....

Nailed it!

 

[jelloslug]

Everyone from Tesla seemed so happy and relaxed on that call. Usually they seem to be on the defensive as if anticipating attacks. Great call.

I think there was quite a bit of truth to what Musk said about being tired and stressed during the last call.

 

[ZachShahan]

it was a good one. still some questions. still hurdles to overcome.
for stock, i think it’s reasonable to be optimistic. but i don’t doubt for a second that it will continue to be picked on and manipulated at any opportunity until all convertible debt is off the books (mar 19 and mar 21). so just be cautious and pick your spots. as far the the company is concerned, looking pretty good, keep up the good work tesla team! continue prod ramp (excited for the next step changes), get those service and delivery problems unkinked, and you’ll be golden.

be interested to see what @Papafox and @jhm think the action will be like tomorrow and over the next few days. will it be sold into trading or will we see solid footing with buyers taking some ground back.

the comments here about Apple and others have helped me to realize that. The FUD won't stop. And when you consider the industries and wealth funds most under threat from Tesla, I have to assume the FUD and attacks will get even bigger.

 

[Revhappy2]

This is a true story:
i have been margined 260% on $TSLA stock for several months now
out of the blue Morgan Stanley calls on my account at 10.30 AM CST today and advise me that they are raising my specific account margin requirement from 30 to 60 % effective immediately and their risk management department wants me to produce XXX in additional collateral effective immediately because they expect 30% drop in $TSLA stock after tonight's ER. i plead with them to allow me one more day before liquidating shares but they would not budge.
i therefore made the boldest trading decision of my life.
i liquidated all my $tsla stock and went all in $300 call January 2020 at 1.45 pm CST
rest is history

But why did you choose such a far away call? There is a massive premium to it. Wouldnt buying a more near term call and rolling over be cheaper?

 

[BornToFly]

But why did you choose such a far away call? There is a massive premium to it. Wouldnt buying a more near term call and rolling over be cheaper?

Less likely to lose everything

 

[ZachShahan]

See, I don't know where my sympathy should start and end.

There are people who have an irrational hatred for TSLA, whom I don't feel any sympathy for. But, if there's a not-so savy investor who constantly hear things like 'losing money for every car they make', 'will run out of money in under a year', etc etc, it would make sense for that person to short TSLA. Then he'll lose a ton of money, go to the forums to complain, then get laughed at. I can't help but feel sympathy for people like that.

Well, they should have done their research. But, yeah, they got played by all the jackasses who know better and pass along the FUD.

 

[MikeC]

See, I don't know where my sympathy should start and end.

There are people who have an irrational hatred for TSLA, whom I don't feel any sympathy for. But, if there's a not-so savy investor who constantly hear things like 'losing money for every car they make', 'will run out of money in under a year', etc etc, it would make sense for that person to short TSLA. Then he'll lose a ton of money, go to the forums to complain, then get laughed at. I can't help but feel sympathy for people like that.

Keep in mind these same guys would be laughing at you mercilessly if it went the other way today. Any not-so-savvy investors who shorted based on FUD are a little more savvy now and, who knows, they might even go long. Nobody said an education is free.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

So what does everyone think the media will have to say tomorrow?

Dan

 

[Starno]

Better to stay careful.

I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow we get a >10% spurge during the first few hours, and then slowly degrade to end the day barely >3%.

Wouldn't be the first time

 

[KarenRei]

People on r/wallstreetbets are losing their $&#% over the conference call and after hours price action.

A number of people got whacked real bad on puts... some bought on margin. I would post the link but the obscene and offensive language is not family friendly!

Dang it, I hate the fact that schadenfreude makes me feel good Makes me feel like a bad person. But reading that thread .... yeah

I'm holding 4 $305p 8/3s at 16.98ea. The fourth contract was bought on margin by accident during the fiasco this morning. I'm going bankrupt.

Tesla up 9%, I officially have no f***** idea how the stock market works

LOOOOOLLL.. My wife is going to kill me after I get margin called off these puts.

WHY CANT I MAKE ONE F****** TRADE OMG IM SO BAD AT THIS S***, ELON YOU F******* NOODLE HEAD

What in the everliving f***

i hope the conference call just f***** up the call holders - please dear god elon say the n-word

"First options trade ever, 8/17 put at 250. Do I just assume my money is gone or can I recover some of this?" "LOL Musk would have to commit a mass shooting at the Fremont factory for this put to be worth anything." "

On the other hand:

LOL I bought a 335$ 8/03 call today b/c I was stuck in traffic and when I looked up I was behind a Model S. God does exist and he sent me a sign

 

[MarcusMaximus]

dude, i told you guys to give me your Qs

Oh, that was you? I can’t keep up with this thread for any extended period of time.

 

[ruralectric]

dude, i told you guys to give me your Qs

Well done Zach. Great questions.

My God, Adam Jonas. You are virtually GUARANTEED to get to ask Elon anything you want and the best you can come up with is dangerous AI, Amazon and BMW? Wow.

edit: And I apologize for calling him a d**** and a dum* a*s. But Geezus!

 

[UnknownSoldier]

People on r/wallstreetbets are losing their $&#% over the conference call and after hours price action.

A number of people got whacked real bad on puts... some bought on margin. I would post the link but the obscene and offensive language is not family friendly!

The joke about always inversing WSB is applicable 9 times out of 10.

Those guys are gamblers, and sometimes you won and sometimes you lost. That's why I never trade anything that WSB is meming.

 

[ABCTG]

4th Q: Adam Jonas, MS: 2 questions: AP is essential a "terminator", could have military applications. Do you see any risk that this weapons grade technology could be restricted from countries like China.

Seems like a FUD tactic.

Fear of Tesla creating a "terminator." Uncertainty that it may fall into the hands of the Chinese.


Maybe we should be concerned that with it's own AI projects, Morgan Stanley is creating a "terminator" that maybe should be restricted from countries like China;


Morgan Stanley Eyes Ambitious AI Project

Fresh off the launch of its “next best action” tool, Morgan Stanley is looking ahead to another artificial-intelligence-based solution—this one to help advisors talk clients through tough personal challenges.

China

In 1993, Morgan Stanley became one of the first global investment banks to establish a presence in China. Since that time, the Firm's strategy has been to build a leading, fully integrated financial services firm in China.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

Nailed it!

Beast....

 

[kbM3]

I think it is pretty clear that the shorts are running out of straws to grasp. I would bet that one of their main focuses moving forward will be the pending litigation.

On a side note, I love, love, love this team approach to the earnings call. Having more people directly involved in answering questions gave so much more credibility to the responses....in my opinion at least.

Dan

After following Tesla for many years, I know as a fact that in the end shorts are always wrong, Tesla is right. But shorts will forget it, move to the next lie. Unfortunately this technic does get a lot of people.

the comments here about Apple and others have helped me to realize that. The FUD won't stop. And when you consider the industries and wealth funds most under threat from Tesla, I have to assume the FUD and attacks will get even bigger.

I already saw one quote (maybe CNN money article) “But can they make profits on the base model?”

And so the goalposts move.

 

[jhm]

And they're also not yet sure when they will be breaking ground since they still have to get through several steps to get there. I think they are guessing at breaking ground in a few months. Can they go from breaking ground in, say, November, to mass producing cars within 24 months? That seems crazy fast to me.

Sprung?

 

[Boomer19]

See, I don't know where my sympathy should start and end.

There are people who have an irrational hatred for TSLA, whom I don't feel any sympathy for. But, if there's a not-so savy investor who constantly hear things like 'losing money for every car they make', 'will run out of money in under a year', etc etc, it would make sense for that person to short TSLA. Then he'll lose a ton of money, go to the forums to complain, then get laughed at. I can't help but feel sympathy for people like that.

i hear you. i’m generally empathetic (i like to think so at least). that site, twtr, stock twits, the hate reddit...

i ponder...
is it just tesla/elon, or is their whole existence in such a way? are their families forced to suffer with them? do they provide any value to anyone with their existence?

i shudder to guess
yes, yes, no

sad

then in a microsecond, i realize how inconsequential they are as a gaggle, and then my dog wanders into the room and gives me that look, and then it’s back to what actually matters in life.

 

[TrendTrader007]

How does this work? Do you get to pick any time before Jan (June? July?) 2020 that you want to take the shares at the price of $300 a share?

basically sell the calls at a profit, hopefully at a future local high and then sit out in cash and buy shares on the next pullback and hold them for several years