TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[defc0n]

LOL goodbye $350, good luck shorts (not really).

 

[ZachF]

...and TREE FIDDY!

 

[jbcarioca]

my portfolio is 100% $TSLA with 90% calls and 10% stock
...

I really admire your willingness to put everything on a single bet. In ancient times I did that too, then diversified a bit. I have lost a couple of times but trusty Ben Graham works well. The major issue is knowing value when one sees it.

it is truly astounding to watch seemingly intelligent people short a stock that is:
1) gaining market share,
2) has positive GM on each established product,
3) has the highest customer satisfaction in the industry,
4) has actual waiting lists for its products
Every successful short of which I know depends on the absence of those things plus some kind of obvious fraud.
I remain bewildered how so many can be wrong so much.
in retrospect they tried to do this will AMZN, GOOG and AAPL too. Those seem to have survived,

 

[Runarbt]

In light of other startups in the Bay Area getting big-time funding for autonomous driving software and Hardware what do people think about Tesla's progress and purported releases coming in the next 1 to 6 months. Tesla is making their own chip does this represent a pivot shift such as Apple going from Apple iIs and Macs and then phones to monthly subscription services?

imho.. Tesla will absolutely kill the competition. stepped exponential performance. hardware they use is cheap. its a pure software problem now, which they will solve.

 

[ZsoZso]

While it is very nice to see such a huge jump in 24 hours, I'd like to remind all the longs / bulls, that we have only recovered from all the BS FUD generated losses of the past month. Real gains are still in the future-hope territory and depend on the execution of the promised cash flow positive profitable quarters. So let's just keep our calm and continue monitoring the signs that the execution is indeed on track.

 

[dailo]

Anyone know how much interest you usually pay on a short position? Curious to know how much interest is compounding if the price doesn't drop.

 

[mongo]

While it is very nice to see such a huge jump in 24 hours, I'd like to remind all the longs / bulls, that we have only recovered from all the BS FUD generated losses of the past month. Real gains are still in the future-hope territory and depend on the execution of the promised cash flow positive profitable quarters. So let's just keep our calm and continue monitoring the signs that the execution is indeed on track.

Choir here: I bought (more) ~June 2017...
At least recent acquisitions are green again...

 

[LoveTSLA]

I think it is macro brought it down. So no worries. It will close green. Unless NSDQ drop like 100...

Note, not an advice.

Well 353+...., short has to be so disappointed...

 

[defc0n]

We've got ourselves a runner. Seems it would have to test $362 next.

 

[tti_7]

Here we go!... That SpaceX feeling when the Falcon9 went through MaxQ and then throttle up.

 

[larmor]

While it is very nice to see such a huge jump in 24 hours, I'd like to remind all the longs / bulls, that we have only recovered from all the BS FUD generated losses of the past month. Real gains are still in the future-hope territory and depend on the execution of the promised cash flow positive profitable quarters. So let's just keep our calm and continue monitoring the signs that the execution is indeed on track.

Good reminder... Just a minor blip here before market realizes that EVs are the future. Current admin is helping out by listening to the local U S auto manufacturers and shifting away from EVs.

Whether it is Market forces or government-sponsored incentives, China is going towards Ev's and that would be the closest market to watch for demand of electric vehicles and electric grid services. Please feel free to correct me if I'm mistaken.

 

[bdy0627]

Can we get some discussion going on when tsla could be added to the s&p and the impact? If they need a year of profit, on average, end of q1 seems the earliest this could happen. I doubt 1.5 billion in q4 profit to counter q1/q2 losses. When the add happens, it’s my understanding that index funds are 18% of the market, or about 10 billion in tsla at current value. That should have a positive impact anytime, but if short interest is still at 10-12 billion, shouldn’t this have a more interesting impact?

Should we be more supportive of bears? Is it time to feed the bears?

I posted this in the papafox thread, where there is a discussion about this as well. According to this article, inclusion in the S&P requires 5 quarters of profits (not sure if they all have to be or not, maybe just profitable OVER those 5 quarters.) That would likely mean after the 3rd quarter 2019.
How Does A Stock Get Added To The S&P 500?

 

[ZsoZso]

Choir here: I bought (more) ~June 2017...
At least recent acquisitions are green again...

I keep buying small amounts along the way as i accumulate some dry powder. My last buy was just few days ago below $300, so that's definitely green, but I also bought some mid-June which is still in the red.
But my overall average is well below $300.

 

[Zaxxon]

I sold ten shares @ $352 to cover my next two Model 3 payments. When it therefore inevitably hits $400 this afternoon, you can all thank me...

 

[Boomer19]

Anyone know how much interest you usually pay on a short position? Curious to know how much interest is compounding if the price doesn't drop.

your brokers should have an interest schedule on their website. IB usually lowest for individual customers of all the e-brokers

in addition, they may increase margin requirement, which;
if using margin, requires more collateral and reduces your buying power
if not using margin, just reduces your buying power

 

[TrendTrader007]

I really admire your willingness to put everything on a single bet. In ancient times I did that too, then diversified a bit. I have lost a couple of times but trusty Ben Graham works well. The major issue is knowing value when one sees it.

it is truly astounding to watch seemingly intelligent people short a stock that is:
1) gaining market share,
2) has positive GM on each established product,
3) has the highest customer satisfaction in the industry,
4) has actual waiting lists for its products
Every successful short of which I know depends on the absence of those things plus some kind of obvious fraud.
I remain bewildered how so many can be wrong so much.
in retrospect they tried to do this will AMZN, GOOG and AAPL too. Those seem to have survived,

Thanks . I totally agree
From a trading perspective I’d wait at least 2 to 3 quarters to realize full short term potential of calls
From investment standpoint another 5 to 10 years
I was forced to convert all my taxable stock into calls a few hours before earnings so it turned out okay. I don’t mind realizing several millions short term trading profits over the next few quarters
However the real wealth shall be created by holding the common stock for at least 5 to 10 years
I will sell all my calls at a local high sometime over the next 2 to 3 quarters then go into cash and wait for a 30 to 40% pullback and then go 200% marginon common near 200 day SMA
THAT will be the way to create a real fortune

This is just the start

 

[winfield100]

I came across this weird video while browsing $TSLA on Twitter:

five00pagesaday

Gives some insight into the insane minds of the shorts and why a lot of them won't start covering until it rises much further and instead double down.

hee hee hee "August is the final month" .....for whom?

 

[winfield100]

I really admire your willingness to put everything on a single bet. In ancient times I did that too, then diversified a bit. I have lost a couple of times but trusty Ben Graham works well. The major issue is knowing value when one sees it.

it is truly astounding to watch seemingly intelligent people short a stock that is:
1) gaining market share,
2) has positive GM on each established product,
3) has the highest customer satisfaction in the industry,
4) has actual waiting lists for its products
Every successful short of which I know depends on the absence of those things plus some kind of obvious fraud.
I remain bewildered how so many can be wrong so much.
in retrospect they tried to do this will AMZN, GOOG and AAPL too. Those seem to have survived,

@jbcarioca
dude, was that you in the black Tesla 3, Florida plates, that blew my doors off on I-95 doing abt 132kph , just South of Georgia border wednesday, just north of Yulee, Fl., exit?

 

[JRP3]

So, you're certainly not having 'irrational exuberance' to imagine $700.

Um, yes he is. Irrational exuberance pretty much describes the majority of his history on this board. He has always been wrong with these insane price predictions, why pretend otherwise?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I sold ten shares @ $352 to cover my next two Model 3 payments. When it therefore inevitably hits $400 this afternoon, you can all thank me...

If it hits $400 this afternoon, I'll buy you lunch! (can I send a burger through the mail?)

Dan