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Runarbt
Active Member
Yes - that person will get a Tesla Model 3 - what more can one wish for. :-D
Runarbt
Active Member
Damn.. a bit quicker than I believed today, back down. Can we hope for a slow climb up to 354-355 before close?
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Until I see a drop of over say, 5% I would just call this normal market fluctuations and not any sort of trend.
Dan
@aubreymcfato @Dan Detweiler @TheTalkingMule
Thanks for bringing the focus on VINs again!
Since end of June and reaching the 5k/week burst, I got lost of the Vin counting, since it wasn't interesting anymore.
BUT - THIS!
July 1st: Highest Vin: 62557
Aug 6th: Highest Vin 92929
By doing simple math, that's a 30372 new registrations in 5 weeks, or 6074/week.
Sure, we can't extrapolate this to weekly production!
But hence - in the letter the talking was producing 50-55k Model 3s for Q3!
"Expecting to produce 50-55k Model 3s in Q3; deliveries should exceed that"
And now, we have a clue, what that last part of the sentence could look like in numbers. With this registration rate it could go to 70-75000 - IF that mass can already be delivered.
Either way the shorts are getting shorter every day the Q3 goes on, because from today it seems impossible to miss the predicted 50-55k in Q3!
Where is my Popcorn when i need it the most....
Thanks for bringing the focus on VINs again!
Since end of June and reaching the 5k/week burst, I got lost of the Vin counting, since it wasn't interesting anymore.
BUT - THIS!
July 1st: Highest Vin: 62557
Aug 6th: Highest Vin 92929
By doing simple math, that's a 30372 new registrations in 5 weeks, or 6074/week.
Sure, we can't extrapolate this to weekly production!
But hence - in the letter the talking was producing 50-55k Model 3s for Q3!
"Expecting to produce 50-55k Model 3s in Q3; deliveries should exceed that"
And now, we have a clue, what that last part of the sentence could look like in numbers. With this registration rate it could go to 70-75000 - IF that mass can already be delivered.
Either way the shorts are getting shorter every day the Q3 goes on, because from today it seems impossible to miss the predicted 50-55k in Q3!
Where is my Popcorn when i need it the most....
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These articles validate what some of us, well at least myself, have believed in that these paid attacks do exist. Shorts will continue to say it is "just a difference of interpreting the facts". Shorts will continue pushing their agenda that Tesla is "cheating", "lying", "go bankrupt" no matter the unveiling of "biases" like the Montana guy. Too much money invested in fossil fuels and in short positions to allow reality to get a leg up. I really appreciate all the good, sane comments I get to read here that explain what is really going on.
Runarbt
Active Member
Agree, normal oscillation during the day. Fun that it seem we avoided another visit into the red.
Edit: scratch that last sentence.
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I'm beginning to think the stock will just sort of float around here until the end of Q3. But what do I know.
Sorry to reply to myself, but I think this is important too:
(Q2 letter): "Model 3 gross margin should grow significantly to approximately 15% in Q3 and to approximately 20% in Q4 predominantly due to continued reduction in manufacturing costs and to some extent an improving mix"
Am i geeting this right?: (in my first post predicted) 70000 deliveries with an average price of 50000$ and 15% gross margin = Adding 525,000,000$ cash and is eating up the Q2 Net loss to a zero or small +/- only from Model 3 deliveries? Right?!
And Tesla already did other steps to reduce cost. So the slightly profit looks like getting real!
Please correct me, if i miss something or did an error.
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ZachShahan
Active Member
I am split between that or some major analysts put out more aggressive forecasts and stock price recommendations and stock pops toward $370 as a result (or over $370 if things get "out of control").
Any insight on timing and expectations for analyst upgrades?
ZachShahan
Active Member
I'm also curious when the major media catch onto this stuff: 7 Charts — Tesla Model 3 vs The Competition (US Sales) | CleanTechnica
Shouldn't be too long before some of them report that the Model 3 is one of the top 10 best selling cars in the US and is demolishing the luxury car market. ... Right?
Shouldn't be too long before some of them report that the Model 3 is one of the top 10 best selling cars in the US and is demolishing the luxury car market. ... Right?
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HG Wells
Martian Embassy
HEADLINE: Shortsville Times
Small & Midsize Luxury Car Sales Stumble. Tesla to Follow.
Did I twist that enough Zach?
Please distribute this.
The Tesla Smear | CleanTechnica
The Tesla Smear | CleanTechnica
Due to shorts, Tesla stock feels like it is actually a mild call option than a stock.
If there isn't much going on, the stock usually drops little by little from shorts pushing it down, as if it is experiencing the time decay of options.
If there's good news, the stock jumps big, just like a call option, but soon it'll start decaying little by little again without further catalyst from short manipulations.
When there is bad news, the stock drops, but it is amplified, as if implied volatility is pushing it down further, again, due to more shorts manipulating.
Just a little crazy observation.
If there isn't much going on, the stock usually drops little by little from shorts pushing it down, as if it is experiencing the time decay of options.
If there's good news, the stock jumps big, just like a call option, but soon it'll start decaying little by little again without further catalyst from short manipulations.
When there is bad news, the stock drops, but it is amplified, as if implied volatility is pushing it down further, again, due to more shorts manipulating.
Just a little crazy observation.
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[QUOTE="Earlian, post: 2929532, membe
"Expecting to produce 50-55k Model 3s in Q3; deliveries should exceed that"
Where is my Popcorn when i need it the most....[/QUOTE]
Or, between 4.0 and 4.4 _gigawatt_ hours of batteries in ->3 months!<-, just for model 3.
?what competition?
"Expecting to produce 50-55k Model 3s in Q3; deliveries should exceed that"
Where is my Popcorn when i need it the most....[/QUOTE]
Or, between 4.0 and 4.4 _gigawatt_ hours of batteries in ->3 months!<-, just for model 3.
?what competition?
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
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