TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ZachShahan]

I had a Twitter convo about this with a colleague who's a smart dude and is generally a Tesla bull. His point on these graphs is that it's a bit of skewed comparison in that its comparing Tesla's backlog vs the "run rate" business for the other companies. To put it another way, once Tesla burns through the 300K+ orders, will these charts still look the same. I think these charts are a useful indicator of Tesla's conversion rate on its reservations, but he does have a fair point.

Yes, this is now the most common response from bears, it seems. I keep saying that history tells us otherwise with Tesla. The expectation is actually more than this once production reaches a steady state. Word of mouth, dissolution of FUD, lower-cost Model 3, and general awareness raising about EVs & Tesla should boost sales.

Metric I often point out are from an old Tesla slide, which had a forecast of 20,000 Model S a year and 10,000–15,000 Model X a year. Of course, the numbers ended up being ~50,000 each.

If A Tesla Pattern Has Emerged, What Does That Mean For Model 3? | CleanTechnica

 

[ZachShahan]

I think, 6 of the 7 charts show that as individual buyers are actually making purchasing decisions and cross shopping models, the Model 3 is consistently winning that decision. I think that bodes well for the Model 3 conversion rate and its longevity overall. The Model S has been able to maintain its dominance over the years, but six years later, its a different competitive environment and Tesla is no longer flying under the radar. Asking what happens after backlog is gone is a fair question.

This chart, however, seems a bit reductive to me:
View attachment 323454
Its seems like one of those charts used to illustrate causality vs correlation. Yeah, I can see the Model 3 eating into Prius sales, but we also know sedans sales are on the decline in favor of SUVs and X-Overs so I'd be cautious about how tightly one links the two trends as there are a number of market forces at work, not just the introduction of the Model 3.

View attachment 323458
View attachment 323459

Aim wasn't to illustrate causality there. Aim was just to start tracking sales of car models the Model 3 may be competing with — beyond the luxury car class. I'm much more curious where things go in the next year, but had to start tracking somewhere so started at January 2018.

 

[brian45011]

I thought 360 was some type of tipping point.

It offers 2019 convertible note holders without a prior hedge in place a relatively risk free arbitrage opportunity

 

[lklundin]

I'm beginning to think the stock will just sort of float around here until the end of Q3. But what do I know.

Well, the last part certainly applies me.

But with the short interest currently valued at 12 G$ (in metric notation), I expect more shenanigans leading to the usual volatility...

 

[tivoboy]

... tops out at $130k( MSRP about $95k but quoting dealer price) for the Trailhawk Luxury package outsold Model 3.

I think you're thinking of the TRACKhawk. Trailhawks are pretty reasonable.

 

[ZachShahan]

TheStreet getting on the right track. Bloomberg & Investopedia lost in Twitter meme land.

 

[oneday]

I don’t agree with all those saying we will be flat to q3 earnings.

Not even saying anything about q3 deliveries in Oct.

I expect we will reach ATH in September. Without actually doing any research, so I might be wrong, but from recollection September has been a really good month for Tesla. I think we will be flat to slightly down on any day that doesn’t have any major positive news for Tesla. But on good news days, I expect multiple +$5 days from here to Sept. 30. There is plenty of positive news that could be published between now and then, the mainstream media is always a couple weeks behind on a lot of these things for Tesla. Also, I believe we will receive a trickle of upgrades in the next two months.

Other than my Aug 10 calls, all of my calls are Dec and later. So I’m not really betting on this yet.

But figured I’d throw my $.02 out there.

I’m also hoping for Elon to go on Joe Rogan podcast Thursday and that propel us into the green on Friday and for the week.

 

[Compton]

Seems like the FUD stream has fizzled out at least temporarily. Seems to coincide pretty well with the outing of Larry Fossi a.k.a. Montana Skeptic. I wonder if this is coincidence or whether the authors decided to tone down a bit after the the exposure. Perhaps they were reminded that a smear campaign might have unwanted consequences? I'm probably overinterpreting but it has been surprisingly calm lately.

Edit; News coverage about the doxing of Montana Skeptic mentioned the name Larry Fossi but a quick search of the Rahr Enterprises website indicates that his real name is Lawrence Fossi.

 

[Tslynk67]

TheStreet getting on the right track. Bloomberg & Investopedia lost in Twitter meme land.

TheStreet is a bit bipolar...

I’m also hoping for Elon to go on Joe Rogan podcast Thursday and that propel us into the green on Friday and for the week.

Well it could propel the stock or is could be a disaster! I hope Elon takes a P3D with him and lets Joe test it first...

 

[Big Earl]

The shorts are keeping a low public profile, but they're definitely getting back into the action. I expect periods of slow erosion between short periods of growth centered around the end-of-month sales reports from Inside EVs. Other news could impact the stock, as well, but this is my general expectation until Q3 earnings. I also don't expect to see ATH until Q3 earnings or later.

 

[Lessmog]

I don’t agree with all those saying we will be flat to q3 earnings.

Not even saying anything about q3 deliveries in Oct.

I expect we will reach ATH in September. Without actually doing any research, so I might be wrong, but from recollection September has been a really good month for Tesla. I think we will be flat to slightly down on any day that doesn’t have any major positive news for Tesla. But on good news days, I expect multiple +$5 days from here to Sept. 30. There is plenty of positive news that could be published between now and then, the mainstream media is always a couple weeks behind on a lot of these things for Tesla. Also, I believe we will receive a trickle of upgrades in the next two months.

Other than my Aug 10 calls, all of my calls are Dec and later. So I’m not really betting on this yet.

But figured I’d throw my $.02 out there.

I’m also hoping for Elon to go on Joe Rogan podcast Thursday and that propel us into the green on Friday and for the week.

Just a helpful reminder: Beware the volitical polatility!
I entered TSLA small-time in April 2013. Due to the scare of the AUSGSD (annual US Gov shutdown) I decided to cash out my bet by selling half in September and going on the house just before the crucial date, one day or so before the expected federal meltdown. (Over my gills now due to additional buys) ):
The same sabres are being rattled as we speak, so to speak, so please take that into your Excel account too.
Mind yer p&q, and the gaap. GLTA.

 

[bdy0627]

Let's see if we can hold Friday's low of day. Dropping below that may signal to traders that there is opportunity for some profits from a dip.

 

[lklundin]

TheStreet getting on the right track. Bloomberg & Investopedia lost in Twitter meme land.

Seeing these photos of a gesturing & grimacing Musk makes me wonder if all his tweeting really is a clever illusionist ploy, to lure the shorts further into the bear trap:

"What Tesla sales numbers? Oh, look a Tweet. And here is another one for you!"

 

[jhm]

In case you feared you were left behind, it's not too late to buy Tesla shares. Indeed, $348 is right in the middle of the Blessed Price Range. One-year Blind Faith Price Targets are pointing to $450.

See all the Blind Faithful details at Blind Faith Price Targets.

 

[jhm]

In case you feared you were left behind, it's not too late to buy Tesla shares. Indeed, $348 is right in the middle of the Blessed Price Range. One-year Blind Faith Price Targets are pointing to $450.

See all the Blind Faithful details at Blind Faith Price Targets.

Oh, look, the price came to $341. This is manna from heaven. More blessings all around!

 

[neroden]

Yes, this is now the most common response from bears, it seems. I keep saying that history tells us otherwise with Tesla. The expectation is actually more than this once production reaches a steady state. Word of mouth, dissolution of FUD, lower-cost Model 3, and general awareness raising about EVs & Tesla should boost sales.

Metric I often point out are from an old Tesla slide, which had a forecast of 20,000 Model S a year and 10,000–15,000 Model X a year. Of course, the numbers ended up being ~50,000 each.

If A Tesla Pattern Has Emerged, What Does That Mean For Model 3? | CleanTechnica

Yes, I love remembering that. I learned from a documentary recently that Musk was originally elated to get 100 reservations for the Roadster, only to discover that that was the tip of the iceberg. Model S was late and cost slightly more than planned; Model X was late; but Model S is selling 50K/year and Mdoel X is selling 50K/year. So much for "20,000 per year" and "10,000 - 15,000 per year".

God only knows how many Model 3s they'll sell...

 

[Unpilot]

Despite TSLA fading heavily in the final two hours of trading, this thread for "Market Action" has become filled with discussions that would be far more appropriate in the "General" thread or the "Tesla, Inc." forum.

I agree...and I am done predicting the market.
Even though I do not use "market speak" i am still wrong 49.9% of the time.

 

[tivoboy]

Oh, look, the price came to $341. This is manna from heaven. More blessings all around!

yes, we've seen this movie before.. several times.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

So, what do you guys think? Was the drop this afternoon mainly profit taking? Sure didn't seem like there was a bunch of FUD driving the price down. Hmmm...

Dan

 

[oneday]

So, what do you guys think? Was the drop this afternoon mainly profit taking? Sure didn't seem like there was a bunch of FUD driving the price down. Hmmm...

Dan

Was wondering the same thing. I think it coincided with Porsche announcing info about Taycan and electric car future.

Edit: never mind that was just seeking alpha reporting it, but it was from last week. The timing just looked perfect. SA reported it 15 min before close