TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Runarbt]

I think it needs something to kickstart it. The >16% leap was a good start, but what's the next step? I can imagine that the Bloomberg tracker might do the trick, it looks nicer and nicer every day (although they need to update their VIN graph!)

back in 2013 - the squeeze was slow and steady. dont mind a replay. ;-)

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Blew through the $350 mark fairly quickly. Seems to be meeting some resistance there though. In the words of one of my favorite '80 bands...REO Speedwagon, "Keep Pushin' On"!

Dan

 

[KarenRei]

I thought Musk already said that 100 kWh was the limit for the S/X?

In any case, I wouldn't expect any major changes for the refresh, just the interior - the second generation S/X, OTOH, I'd expect it to adopt lessons learned from the Model 3, and gain parts commonality with it where appropriate.

There's two ways to upgrade the range without reengineering the vehicle for a larger pack: 1) improved chemistries (increasing kWh), and 2) improved efficiencies (which also improves effective charge rates). The latter should be easier than it first sounds: replacing the front motor with the PMSRM used in the Model 3 (at least in the non-P100D variants). It's already in mass production, after all, and looks to be sufficiently compact. Bet it offers nearly a 10% increase in efficiency.

The very exciting part is V3 supercharging, since Model 3 and all new S and X are supposed to be rated to higher powers than existing Superchargers can supply. According to Ingineerix, the charge cable in the Model 3 is rated by its manufacturer to 430A, although EPA docs say 525A. That'd be ~150kW and ~180kW at low SoCs, respectively. In a "proper case" (some people are inexplicably not encountering "proper cases"... whether it's the vehicle or charger to blame, it's not clear), taper doesn't begin until nearly 50% at ~120kW, so taking those sorts of powers at low SoCs seems quite plausible.

 

[ggr]

Mod: I'd like to thank all the current participants in this forum for being really well behaved and giving me the time to think about investment... look how well it runs! --ggr.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Mod: I'd like to thank all the current participants in this forum for being really well behaved and giving me the time to think about investment... look how well it runs! --ggr.

Go to hell.

KIDDING...JUST KIDDING!

LOL!

Dan

 

[Unpilot]

Not jinx this run...but to me it feels like it has some legs.

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA to clarify: the whole point of my buying way OTM calls is not that i really expect SP to hit strike price
it is just to accomplish high velocity rapid price appreciation in a highly time sensitive and time limited trade
do not copy what i am doing: very high risk trades!

 

[Tslynk67]

I thought Musk already said that 100 kWh was the limit for the S/X?

Indeed he did, but the way I see it right now is that given the battery chemistry improvement, you could make a 120 pack the same form-factor and weight as the current 100, easily, actually.

But then you have to wonder if it's really needed, given all the density of Superchargers.

 

[Tslynk67]

And approaching 355 - hasn't that been a bit sticky in the past?

 

[Starno]

And approaching 355 - hasn't that been a bit sticky in the past?

355-370 is really sticky. It never stayed over 370 more than a few days at a time.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Posting the VIN numbers has become a full-time job:
Tesla registered 3,609 new Model3 VINs. ~82% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 92929.
Source: Model 3 VINs on Twitter

(sorry for cross-posting)

 

[Swampgator]

Indeed he did, but the way I see it right now is that given the battery chemistry improvement, you could make a 120 pack the same form-factor and weight as the current 100, easily, actually.

But then you have to wonder if it's really needed, given all the density of Superchargers.

I think Elon would rather use the improved energy density to make the pack lighter.
You could still have a 100KWH battery that weighs 20% less because less cells would be needed. That would get increased speed and efficiency, and lower battery cell demands at Giga.

 

[jbcarioca]

The short term investor sentiment is somewhat disproportionately influenced by Bloomberg, not least because those terminals sit on traders desks. Thus:
We Set Out to Crack Tesla's Biggest Mystery: How Many Model 3s It's Making
reporting anything above 5000 Model 3 per week is positive news. That cannot and will not overcome FUD but is certainly give very short term upward momentum for a few hours whenever it happens. The algorithms don't read too much though.

 

[Unpilot]

Newbie stock trader...well more accurately buyer.
At any rate from the volume and movement I summarize this rise is long and stong.

 

[lklundin]

There's two ways to upgrade the range without reengineering the vehicle for a larger pack: 1) improved chemistries (increasing kWh), and 2) improved efficiencies (which also improves effective charge rates). The latter should be easier than it first sounds: replacing the front motor with the PMSRM used in the Model 3 (at least in the non-P100D variants). It's already in mass production, after all, and looks to be sufficiently compact. Bet it offers nearly a 10% increase in efficiency.

The very exciting part is V3 supercharging, since Model 3 and all new S and X are supposed to be rated to higher powers than existing Superchargers can supply. According to Ingineerix, the charge cable in the Model 3 is rated by its manufacturer to 430A, although EPA docs say 525A. That'd be ~150kW and ~180kW at low SoCs, respectively. In a "proper case" (some people are inexplicably not encountering "proper cases"... whether it's the vehicle or charger to blame, it's not clear), taper doesn't begin until nearly 50% at ~120kW, so taking those sorts of powers at low SoCs seems quite plausible.

I did catch Ingineerix's remark about the thicker cable in the Model 3, and am wondering what kind of next-level Supercharging Tesla has in store for us.

Since I will mostly be using my yet-to-be configured Model 3 for road trips (mostly on the Autobahn) I am intensely interested in its range and Supercharging capability.

Are you saying that it can sustain charging at 120 kW up to a SoC of close to 50%?

 

[mongo]

I did catch Ingineerix's remark about the thicker cable in the Model 3, and am wondering what kind of next-level Supercharging Tesla has in store for us.

Since I will mostly be using my yet-to-be configured Model 3 for road trips (mostly on the Autobahn) I am intensely interested in its range and Supercharging capability.

Are you saying that it can sustain charging at 120 kW up to a SoC of close to 50%?

SP looking nice today!

Off topic:
I read that 3 was using aluminum cables Tesla Model 3: supplier says it received an order for 3,000 km of ‘shielded aluminum cables’ from Tesla, if S/X were copper, that would also explain increased diameter.

 

[KarenRei]

I did catch Ingineerix's remark about the thicker cable in the Model 3, and am wondering what kind of next-level Supercharging Tesla has in store for us.

Since I will mostly be using my yet-to-be configured Model 3 for road trips (mostly on the Autobahn) I am intensely interested in its range and Supercharging capability.

Are you saying that it can sustain charging at 120 kW up to a SoC of close to 50%?

Yes, there've been many reports. 50% or higher happens for some people, although taper starting around 40-45% seems most common. But every now and then taper starts really low, or doesn't even reach the ~120kW (aka 116-117kW in practice) range at all. And it's not yet been sufficiently explained as to what the cause is.

Honestly, from the data I've seen, if I wasn't getting past 35% (or maybe even to 40%), and trying several different supercharger stations didn't help, I'd take it in for service.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Posting the VIN numbers has become a full-time job:
Tesla registered 3,609 new Model3 VINs. ~82% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 92929.
Source: Model 3 VINs on Twitter

(sorry for cross-posting)

These vin's were corrected to "100% dual motor"

 

[Tslynk67]

Blew through the $350 mark fairly quickly. Seems to be meeting some resistance there though. In the words of one of my favorite '80 bands...REO Speedwagon, "Keep Pushin' On"!

Dan

Some supporting macro would help - it's tracking NASDAQ again...

 

[avoigt]

I expect the next iteration of S and X to be so much better than the current models that the demand will go way up. They will probably also offer even larger battery pack sizes and thus range currently unavailable to the Model 3 and other brands, giving them a unique selling proposition.

I was thinking about that.

Elon said correctly that the S is higher level but the P more value for the money.

A logic next step for the S and X is to:

• Improve the interior - see Electrec pictures, more spartan like interior with Display like the 3, 2 displays, air vents from 3 ect.
• Potentially go with 2170 or next level cells, more range & faster charging - would explain why the refresh comes in Q3 '19
• True FSD integrated with next level mother board & chip

All of those should drive new demand and allow higher prices with better margin.