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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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It is impossible to predict what would have happened IF (insert other course of action that could have been taken by Elon).

The only thing that is quite certain with TSLA is that it's very volatile and therefore risky to bet on the short term. (That's why I'm not doing that again after burning my fingers on some 'gone wrong'-trades :) )
Yes, I'm still trying to figure out how "short term" I can go with TSLA. Certainly not weeklies for me. I'm pretty heavy on March calls, which still seem ok but that's as short term as I go. Even that may turn out to be too short term to catch a big rise.
 
I have believed for a long time now that Musk sets impossible targets for Tesla. He does this to squeeze every last bit of effort out of his teams. End result is a good product... and even though they missed their model 3 production goals and are burning a lot of cash they're making it happen and continue to put up very impressive growth numbers. Holding Long since day 1.
 
Stock seems to be holding up pretty well today considering the update yesterday, would not have been surprised if it dropped 5-10%. Hopefully with the latest guidance they are set to underpromise and overdeliver, guess goalposts are still goalposts even if they get moved.
 
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Just curious if anyone else on this board has checked their Model 3 delivery estimate ? Mine is "late 2018" and it has not changed for months ..... even if I use Tesla's most optimistic numbers I can't see how I will get a Model 3 in 2018 as my reservation was made in late July of '17. I am located in Southern California so I guess that moves me up a bit but still it hasn't moved in months.

I ok with it as a few extra months of waiting is really not that big of a deal. I'm not expecting to see much in the way of a tax credit anyway.
 
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Just curious if anyone else on this board has checked their Model 3 delivery estimate ? Mine is "late 2018" and it has not changed for months ..... even if I use Tesla's most optimistic numbers I can't see how I will get a Model 3 in 2018 as my reservation was made in late July of '17. I am located in Southern California so I guess that moves me up a bit but still it hasn't moved in months.

I ok with it as a few extra months of waiting is really not that big of a deal. I'm not expecting to see much in the way of a tax credit anyway.

If you take delivery before end of 2018 you should be getting a tax credit.
 
Screen Shot 2018-01-04 at 11.18.27 AM.png

Here's what I think is going on. At open, we saw over 300,000 shares trade in the first minute, which had an upward influence on the stock price. I think most of this buying was shorts closing positions to lock in gains. The first and last minute of trading every day is normally a good opportunity for buying without pushing the stock price up.
* Next, shorts pushed to see how low they could take the stock and see if they could generate fear in the longs. About 10:22am TSLA bottomed out and then enjoyed a quick run into the green
* Shorts went to work controlling the damage. They sold enough shares to barely depress TSLA into the red and then began a slow walk-down of the price
* Slightly after 12:30pm, shorts lost control of their slow walk-down and the stock made a dash to the red/green line where phase two of the "whack the mole" game by the shorts took place and TSLA started descending again
* At about 1pm, the dip stopped and shorts worked to cap TSLA below 313
* At about 1:45pm, the cap failed and a new cap began to hold/push TSLA below 315
And so that's where we are now. If shorts lose control of the 315 cap they will likely go back to "whack the mole" and expend the resources to keep TSLA from running into the green. Remember that shorts are likely doing 55-60% of the trading today. The shorts continue to probe for weakness and will take advantage of it if they find it.
 
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Just curious if anyone else on this board has checked their Model 3 delivery estimate ? Mine is "late 2018" and it has not changed for months ..... even if I use Tesla's most optimistic numbers I can't see how I will get a Model 3 in 2018 as my reservation was made in late July of '17. I am located in Southern California so I guess that moves me up a bit but still it hasn't moved in months.

I ok with it as a few extra months of waiting is really not that big of a deal. I'm not expecting to see much in the way of a tax credit anyway.

I reserved April 1/16 and at the time recall being provided an order number in the 220XXX range although I can no longer find any reference to that. This would lead me to believe that I won't receive the M3 prior to early '19. (non-current Tesla owner and Canadian). Ontario tax rebate is $14000 CAD + $1500 CAD for charger install. My Tesla still shows Late 2018 so I'll keep the dream alive.
Daniel
 
Just curious if anyone else on this board has checked their Model 3 delivery estimate ? Mine is "late 2018" and it has not changed for months ..... even if I use Tesla's most optimistic numbers I can't see how I will get a Model 3 in 2018 as my reservation was made in late July of '17. I am located in Southern California so I guess that moves me up a bit but still it hasn't moved in months.

I ok with it as a few extra months of waiting is really not that big of a deal. I'm not expecting to see much in the way of a tax credit anyway.
The answer is quite simple once you remove the rose colored glasses you are wearing. You will all get your cars by original schedule, and Tesla won't ever need to go over 1k/week of M3 :) Pure magic.

Now, I need to find out where Elon donated the half billion dollars he got after his stock sale in 2016. Tesla did say in 2016 when Elon sold ~$1.4B of stock, that he is going to donate the rest of the proceeds, right?
Knowing Tesla's thirst for PR, hard to imagine that this would have happened so quietly.
But I can't find anything about a large donation from Elon. Anyone got a clue? TIA.
 
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Just curious if anyone else on this board has checked their Model 3 delivery estimate ? Mine is "late 2018" and it has not changed for months ..... even if I use Tesla's most optimistic numbers I can't see how I will get a Model 3 in 2018 as my reservation was made in late July of '17. I am located in Southern California so I guess that moves me up a bit but still it hasn't moved in months.

I ok with it as a few extra months of waiting is really not that big of a deal. I'm not expecting to see much in the way of a tax credit anyway.
While 'guidance' was provided for the next 6 months, we still don't know how H2 is going to play out - are we staying at around 5k/week or do we increase towards 10k/w? That would make a big difference in the total delivery number.
What makes your estimate still achievable is that it is getting likely that no international deliveries will start even at the end of 2018 (maybe a few symbolic M3s for our Canadian friends as to send a message that it is starting for the rest of the world). So even with a total 2018 production for the US at 150k, considering international orders and the number of people postponing for AWD and P versions, few cancellations in favor of S upgrade to get full tax credit, you have a shot at the RWD model. With likely 1/2 of the federal tax credit in Q4 2018.
So your delivery estimate is going to be stuck to end 2018 until the very end of 2018...
 
Just curious if anyone else on this board has checked their Model 3 delivery estimate ? Mine is "late 2018" and it has not changed for months ..... even if I use Tesla's most optimistic numbers I can't see how I will get a Model 3 in 2018 as my reservation was made in late July of '17. I am located in Southern California so I guess that moves me up a bit but still it hasn't moved in months.

I ok with it as a few extra months of waiting is really not that big of a deal. I'm not expecting to see much in the way of a tax credit anyway.
Mine still says Jan-Mar for LR+PUP 1st production model, Early 2018 for SR, and Sep-Nov for AWD, no change since after Q3 ER. Non-owner, live in SF Bay Area near Fremont, 3/31/2016 online reservation.

It does seem a little curious how the ramp slowdown hasn't impacted the delivery estimate yet. A couple of possibilities I'm considering:

1) The delivery estimate page will change by Q4ER in Feb

2) The delivery estimate was already sandbagged in Nov, so now it still fits

2a) Extending on 2), it's possible that when Elon said 5k/wk by end of March, he thought they could do a burst rate of 5k/wk for one week at the end of March to technically get over the bar, while sustaining significantly lower than that, maybe 3-4k/wk. Then just now they tried burst rate in late Dec and the quality didn't turn out too well so they decided to ditch the burst rate approach. It's possible that Tesla had made the delivery estimate based on a 3-4k/wk sustained rate by the end of March, and it's not too far from this new conservative 2.5k/wk target so they don't bother to adjust.
 
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View attachment 271010
Here's what I think is going on. At open, we saw over 300,000 shares trade in the first minute, which had an upward influence on the stock price. I think most of this buying was shorts closing positions to lock in gains. The first and last minute of trading every day is normally a good opportunity for buying without pushing the stock price up.
* Next, shorts pushed to see how low they could take the stock and see if they could generate fear in the longs. About 10:22am TSLA bottomed out and then enjoyed a quick run into the green
* Shorts went to work controlling the damage. They sold enough shares to barely depress TSLA into the red and then began a slow walk-down of the price
* Slightly after 12:30pm, shorts lost control of their slow walk-down and the stock made a dash to the red/green line where phase two of the "whack the mole" game by the shorts took place and TSLA started descending again
* At about 1pm, the dip stopped and shorts worked to cap TSLA below 313
* At about 1:45pm, the cap failed and a new cap began to hold/push TSLA below 315
And so that's where we are now. If shorts lose control of the 315 cap they will likely go back to "whack the mole" and expend the resources to keep TSLA from running into the green. Remember that shorts are likely doing 55-60% of the trading today. The shorts continue to probe for weakness and will take advantage of it if they find it.
It puts a smile on my face even when TSLA is in turbulent territory, that shorts have to work hard day after day, every hour and every minute, and all I have to do is just sit on my shares and carry on with my life.
 
Data Point in NYC. Owner of X and S, 3/31 reservation M3 holder, invited today to configure.

As all wheel drive is a must (snow anyone?) I pushed it back with a promise that they would be getting back to me in Sping of 2018.View attachment 271029
Got my order invite today as well. Despite the trolls, the 3's are coming. Sig X owner ordered online and in showroom on 3/31 as well. And I need AWD since I am in the Pocono Mountains of PA. So I will defer also.

Further data point. Flew into Dusseldorf this morning and didn't see one Tesla from the plane or on the train ride to Köln. But both the plane and the train were moving kind of fast and it was dark. o_O
 
Mine still says Jan-Mar for LR+PUP 1st production model, Early 2018 for SR, and Sep-Nov for AWD, no change since after Q3 ER. Non-owner, live in SF Bay Area near Fremont, 3/31/2016 online reservation.

It does seem a little curious how the ramp slowdown hasn't impacted the delivery estimate yet. A couple of possibilities I'm considering:

1) The delivery estimate page will change by Q4ER in Feb

2) The delivery estimate was already sandbagged in Nov, so now it still fits

2a) Extending on 2), it's possible that when Elon said 5k/wk by end of March, he thought they could do a burst rate of 5k/wk for one week at the end of March to technically get over the bar, while sustaining significantly lower than that, maybe 3-4k/wk. Then just now they tried burst rate in late Dec and the quality didn't turn out too well so they decided to ditch the burst rate approach. It's possible that Tesla had made the delivery estimate based on a 3-4k/wk sustained rate by the end of March, and it's not too far from this new conservative 2.5k/wk target so they don't bother to adjust.
May also be that the demand for the RWD premium is not that high, and the M3 market may be polarized between the cheapest short range RWD model on one end, and the AWD on the other. The promised windows for these also happen to be much wider ;)
 
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